Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
500 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

CURRENTLY...CLOUD BAND MOVING OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND IS KEEPING WINDS IN CHECK FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TO OUR WEST...INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. THIS WILL BE THE FRONT THAT BRINGS US THE MOST SNOWFALL
TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND THE BORA EVENT FOR THE REST
OF THE CWFA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

LATEST WRKHGT PRODUCT DOES SHOW A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN CRAIG TO
CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 52/48MTRS
AT 850/700MB RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY THOUGH AS
THEY REALLY RAMP UP AFTER 00Z...UP TO 88/83MTRS BY 03Z. GOING TO
KEEP THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES AS THEY ARE...DO BELIEVE THE MID
SHIFT DID A GREAT JOB ON TIMING FOR STRONGER WINDS IN THE
PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z.

CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY AND END
TIMES OF WARNINGS STILL LOOK GOOD. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WIND
PRONE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THAT IS SOMETHING WE
CAN CONTEND WITH TOMORROW.

GOT ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH GFS 700MB WINDS 45-50KTS. COULD SEE
WIND HEADLINES IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WE
CAN CONTEND WITH THIS EVENT AFTER THIS WIDESPREAD EVENT IS OVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT
ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY MINOR FORECAST CONCERN IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE IS THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC EARLY IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
NOT GO INTO TOO MUCH DETAIL AT THIS TIME. THE GEM AND GFS DO SHOW
THIS SYSTEM DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER PROBABILITY FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...TIMING IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SO
ONLY INCREASED POP BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW QUIET
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A BIT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY COLD AND IN THE TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S.
STRONG WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT TO THE WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPO IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. GUSTS TO 40-55 KTS ARE
EXPECTED...EVEN OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE DECREASING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD BORA EVENT TONIGHT WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60-65MPH
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT
BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY MORNING. QUICK HITTING SNOWS
FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES FOR AN ADDITIONAL 3-4 INCHES
UP THERE. LOOKING AT WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WIND
PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ102-108-119.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ101-103>107-
     109>111-113-115>118.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-
     054-055-095-096.

&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
445 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016

WYZ101>111-113-115>119-191145-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
445 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 TODAY...AND WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
WYOMING PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 70 TO 80 MPH OR HIGHER GUSTS
LIKELY FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80
BETWEEN RAWLINS AND CHEYENNE...AND INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN WHITAKER
AND WHEATLAND. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING INTERSTATE
80 BETWEEN RAWLINS AND ARLINGTON. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK...
ESPECIALLY FOR LIGHT AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER
REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-191145-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
445 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH. HIGHER SPEEDS ARE LIKELY ALONG EXPOSED
RIDGETOPS. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER
REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

WYZ112-114-191145-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-SNOWY RANGE-
445 AM MST THU FEB 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
70 TO 90 MPH. OUTDOOR RECREATION WILL BE DANGEROUS AND TRAVEL
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER
REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
431 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON               41.59N 106.21W
02/18/2016  M75 MPH          CARBON             WY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WIND 35 MPH. ARLINGTON WYDOT SITE.

&&

AAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
439 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

WYZ103-105>107-110-112>117-190030-
SHIRLEY BASIN WY-SNOWY RANGE WY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS WY-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN WY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-EAST PLATTE COUNTY WY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS WY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE WY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY WY-
LARAMIE VALLEY WY-
439 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

...VERY STRONG WINDS WITH BRIEF SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PLATTE...ALBANY... SOUTHEASTERN CARBON AND NORTHWESTERN LARAMIE
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MST...

AT 435 PM MST...A STRONG SNOW SQUALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH CREEK
CAMPGROUND...AND WILL MOVE EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO 1/2MI OR LESS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LARAMIE...ALBANY...MEDICINE BOW...ROCK RIVER...BOBBIE THOMPSON
CAMPGROUND...WHEATLAND RESERVOIR 3...FRENCH CREEK CAMPGROUND...
CENTENNIAL...TIE SIDING...BOW RIVER CAMPGROUND...YELLOW PINE
CAMPGROUND...THE BUTTES...WOODS LANDING-JELM...LAKE OWEN
CAMPGROUND...SUGAR LOAF CAMPGROUND...BROOKLYN LAKE...DEEP CREEK
CAMPGROUND...BOSWELL CREEK CAMPGROUND...BOSLER AND BROOKLYN LAKE
CAMPGROUND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 25 IN WYOMING NEAR MILE MARKER 83.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 265 AND 328.

LAT...LON 4100 10636 4102 10661 4215 10611 4210 10498
      4100 10549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 276DEG 38KT 4202 10604 4114 10645

MAZUR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
446 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON         41.55N 106.08W
02/18/2016  M58 MPH          CARBON             WY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WIND 33 MPH. COOPER COVE WYDOT SITE.

0335 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE ELK MOUNTAIN      41.67N 106.36W
02/18/2016  M60 MPH          CARBON             WY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WIND 41 MPH. COUNTY ROAD 402 WYDOT SITE.

0346 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ELK MOUNTAIN       41.72N 106.45W
02/18/2016  M69 MPH          CARBON             WY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WIND 47 MPH. ELK MOUNTAIN WYDOT SITE.

0355 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ARLINGTON          41.62N 106.25W
02/18/2016  M66 MPH          CARBON             WY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WIND 44 MPH. FOOTE CREEK WYDOT SITE.

0350 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RAWLINS                 41.78N 107.23W
02/18/2016                   CARBON             WY   PUBLIC

            POWER KNOCKED OUT IN CITY OF RAWLINS AND AT THE RAWLINS
            AIRPORT.

0345 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NW ELK MOUNTAIN       41.76N 106.51W
02/18/2016  M62 MPH          CARBON             WY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WIND 41 MPH. HALLECK RIDGE WYDOT SITE.

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 9 WNW ELK MOUNTAIN      41.74N 106.57W
02/18/2016  M60 MPH          CARBON             WY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WIND 42 MPH. MILE MARKER 249.1 WYDOT SITE.

0355 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW ARLINGTON          41.64N 106.28W
02/18/2016  M65 MPH          CARBON             WY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WIND 44 MPH. WAGONHOUND WYDOT SITE.

0420 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW ARLINGTON          41.64N 106.28W
02/18/2016  M80 MPH          CARBON             WY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SUSTAINED WIND 52 MPH. WAGONHOUND WYDOT SITE.

&&

AAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

WYZ106-107-115>118-190100-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-EAST PLATTE COUNTY WY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS WY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY WY-
LARAMIE VALLEY WY-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY WY-
536 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016

...VERY STRONG WINDS WITH BRIEF SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PLATTE... SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY AND WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 600
PM MST...

AT 534 PM MST...A STRONG SNOW SQUALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11
MILES NORTH OF IRON MOUNTAIN TO NEAR TIE SIDING...AND MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LARAMIE...HORSE CREEK...IRON MOUNTAIN...GRANITE SPRINGS CAMPGROUND...
NORTH CROW CAMPGROUND...VEDAUWOO CAMPGROUND...PUMPKIN VINE...CRYSTAL
LAKE RESERVOIR...FEDERAL...TIE SIDING...GRANITE SPRINGS RESERVOIR...
TIE CITY CAMPGROUND...YELLOW PINE CAMPGROUND...THE BUTTES...CRYSTAL
LAKE CAMPGROUND...HUTTON LAKE...VEDAUWOO...BUFORD...UNIVERSITY OF
WYOMING WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM AND BALDY PEAK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN WYOMING BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 305 AND
348.

LAT...LON 4176 10485 4100 10510 4100 10589 4175 10553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 276DEG 43KT 4172 10520 4103 10553

MAZUR