Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

August 26, 2016Blair County, Cambria County, Huntingdon County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this special weather statement at Aug 26, 2016, 12:04 AM EDT for Blair County, Cambria County, Huntingdon County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 26, 2016, 12:04 AM EDT (04:04 UTC)
Expired
Aug 26, 2016, 1:00 AM EDT
In force
56 min
Issued by
NWS State College, PA

Counties Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC), launched 00:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 00:00Z on 2016-08-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1766 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 00:00Z on 2016-08-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 167 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1766 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1083 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
167 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
249 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.2
Supercell composite
10.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 25, 10:05 PM EDT, 1 hour 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 25, 10:05 PM EDT, 1 hour 59 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1005 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms should diminish as they move to the east overnight,
but will still make much of the area wet. A seasonably warm and
humid late- summer weather pattern will continue across Central
Pennsylvania into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Tiny, discrete supercells have now merged into one big bow echo
which should be accellerating through the CWA shortly. An MCV
seems to be forming in the central part of the bow. Weakening is
still forecast, but some CAPE above 1000 Joules is still available
to the east of the bow. EHI just above 1 in the swrn part of the
CWA. The shear along the southern fringe of the bow might still
make some rotation in any cells which can form away from the bow
and also at the tail end of the bow - much like just happened
north of PIT. Will follow the HRRR timing as it seems to have a
really good handle on current development/convection. It develops
the cold pool (if 72/70 can be considered cold) and accellerates
the bow thru the central mtns.

Prev...
Current radar mosaic over the NW seems rather benign at this time.
However, there have been a few cells with 50kft+ tops and
persistent rotation. So far, those nastier cells have stayed away
from the CWA. Have refined the timing just slightly with this
update. But, the main shot of precip is associated with a short
wave trough that is moving through wrn NY and wrn PA. Dewpoints
ahead of the line/s of showers are still in the l70s, and
inflow/source dewpoints are in the m70s from SWrn PA. Thus, these
showers (and the few tsra) should continue for a little while, but
near-term models still indicate significant weakening/scattering
as it moves through the c mtns.

Prev...
HRRR runs show convection entering nw cwa this evening. A few of
these storms will be quite strong with frequent lightning...gusty
winds and brief heavy downpours accompanying them as the move east
and southeast. Convection will weaken after sunset with loss of
heating...somewhere close to Centre County and points north
south...likely not making it much further east. After convection
diminishes look for another warm and humid night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging will bring warm temperatures aloft to limit threat of
convection. Slight less surface moisture will make things feel more
comfortable though temperatures will once again top out well
above average.

Sfc high will build over the region Friday night, resulting in a
fair and mild night. Will have to watch for the possibility of
patchy valley fog over the northern mtns late.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Medium range guidance is in good agreement in keeping an anomalous ridge
aloft in place over the region into the early days of next week.
This will assure we remain warmer than normal with daytime highs
in the mid to upper 80s, low to mid 90s over southeastern areas,
at least into Tuesday.

By mid week week, weak troughing rippling through southern Canada
and the Great Lakes is made to erode the northern portion of the
northeastern ridge a bit, but only to the extent that upper
heights and temperatures fall back closer to normal values.

The NAEFS and GEFS end up carving out a weak mean trough by the
end of the week, but once again heights and temps are forecast to
be near seasonal norms so it should remain quite pleasant with
the biggest chance being a break in the humidity.

Chances for rain will be generally limited to scattered diurnal convection
each day, but with warm air aloft the chances should remain small
in the absence of well defined forcing. There is a period later
Sunday into Monday morning as we come under the northern edge of
the subtropical ridge and a weak cold front approaches, which
could be the first hints at the development of a more significant
MCS upstream. But with such a strong ridge aloft it's hard to be
confident at this range.

Main item of difference is the tropical system the ECMWF blows
up over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week that the
GFS doesn't do much with at all. Both model suites agree with
the northern stream trough mentioned above to be enough to keep
any possible tropical developments well south of the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue this evening across Central Pennsylvania.
Broken convection in far northwest Pennsylvania and Southwest New
York slowly making progress towards KBFD. Included mention of
VCTS in KBFD from 01z to 03z.

Short range models continue and try and carry convection into
Central Pa this evening, with activity reaching a KIPT-KUNV-KJST
line between 03z and 05z. At this point, have held off mention of
SHRA/TSRA in any of the other TAF locations...because of lower
confidence /30 POPs/. Will continue to monitor evolution of
activity for possible inclusion in TAFs.

For Friday, some morning restrictions should give way to VFR
conditions.

Outlook...

Fri...Morning restrictions in fog and lower ceilings, then VFR.
Sat...Patchy morning fog...otherwise VFR.
Sun...Mainly VFR...but isolated TSRA western 1/3 airspace in the
afternoon.
Mon-Tue...Isolated/Scattered thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Jung
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 25, 3:29 PM EDT, 8 hours 35 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
329 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-261930-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-
329 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS 60 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ012-018-019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-261930-
NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
329 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066-261930-
FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-
YORK-LANCASTER-
329 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 25, 8:46 PM EDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
846 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

PAZ005-006-260145-
MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-
846 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 846 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BRADFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRADFORD...SMETHPORT...SHINGLEHOUSE...CORYVILLE...REW...
PORT ALLEGANY...LEWIS RUN...ELDRED...CERES...
UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH - BRADFORD...ROULETTE AND CYCLONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7802 4173 7819 4189 7878 4200 7870
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 290DEG 32KT 4195 7861

MARTIN
Special weather statement, Aug 25, 9:09 PM EDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
909 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

PAZ010-017-260145-
CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-
909 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 909 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PORTLAND MILLS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORTLAND MILLS...FORCE...PENFIELD...BRANDY CAMP...
PARKER DAM STATE PARK...BROCKPORT...S.B. ELLIOT STATE PARK...
WEEDVILLE...KERSEY AND TREASURE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4145 7898 4144 7898 4144 7896 4145 7896
      4137 7843 4110 7852 4119 7877 4120 7877
      4120 7871 4123 7871 4123 7874 4127 7874
      4136 7895 4137 7897 4135 7902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 288DEG 24KT 4135 7893

MARTIN
Special weather statement, Aug 25, 9:41 PM EDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
941 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

PAZ006-260215-
POTTER PA-
941 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 940 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SHINGLEHOUSE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHINGLEHOUSE...GENESEE...OSWAYO...ULYSSES AND HARRISON VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7764 4176 7767 4185 7821 4191 7821
      4200 7819
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 280DEG 24KT 4196 7810

MARTIN
Special weather statement, Aug 25, 10:03 PM EDT, 2 hours 1 minute before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

PAZ010-011-017-260300-
CLEARFIELD PA-CAMERON PA-ELK PA-
1003 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1001 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FORCE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS EXTEND SOUTHWEST
FROM THIS STORM.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEARFIELD...ST. MARYS...DUBOIS...SANDY...STEVENSON DAM...
MEDIX RUN...PENFIELD...ROCKTON...LECONTES MILLS...
PARKER DAM STATE PARK...JEFFRIES...HICKS RUN...WOODLAND...
BENEZETTE...BROCKPORT...S.B. ELLIOT STATE PARK...FORCE...
PLYMPTONVILLE...HYDE AND CURWENSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4142 7799 4139 7799 4086 7839 4091 7881
      4114 7880 4120 7877 4120 7871 4123 7871
      4123 7874 4127 7874 4147 7856
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 289DEG 34KT 4126 7850

MARTIN
Special weather statement, Aug 25, 11:13 PM EDT, 51 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

PAZ017-018-024-025-260345-
NORTHERN CENTRE PA-BLAIR PA-CLEARFIELD PA-CAMBRIA PA-
1113 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CLEARFIELD...BLAIR...
CENTRE...AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

AT 1112 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PRINCE GALLITZIN STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TYRONE...SINKING VALLEY...BELLWOOD...PATTON...BLANDBURG...
PRINCE GALLITZIN STATE PARK...BALD EAGLE...TIPTON...IRVONA...
COALPORT...DELGROSSO'S AMUSEMENT PARK AND BIRMINGHAM.

LAT...LON 4080 7861 4077 7818 4074 7823 4074 7813
      4070 7820 4068 7822 4064 7819 4062 7817
      4056 7820 4051 7815 4062 7866
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 279DEG 31KT 4070 7854

JUNG
Special weather statement, Aug 26, 12:04 AM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1204 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

PAZ024>026-034-260500-
BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-HUNTINGDON PA-CAMBRIA PA-
1204 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1202 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HORSESHOE CURVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WAS PART OF
A BAND OF STORMS THAT EXTENDED WESTWARD TO NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORTAGE...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...NANTY-GLO...WESTMONT...JOHNSTOWN...
HOLLIDAYSBURG...EBENSBURG...LAKEMONT...CRESSON...
CANOE CREEK STATE PARK...BELSANO...CLAYSBURG...ROYER...CARROLLTOWN...
GALLITZIN...DALE...SALIX-BEAUTY LINE PARK...
SOUTHMONT AND DUNCANSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4034 7901 4050 7891 4067 7883 4056 7786
      4023 7810 4031 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 296DEG 26KT 4053 7852

MARTIN

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 25, 8:21 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPElk54 min
Aug 25, 8:33 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPWarren57 min
Aug 25, 8:46 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPMcKean59 min
Aug 25, 9:09 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPElk36 min
Aug 25, 9:41 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPPotter34 min
Aug 25, 10:03 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPClearfield57 min
Aug 25, 10:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCambria, Clearfield44 min
Aug 25, 11:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPBlair32 min
Aug 26, 4:13 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPLancaster62 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Pennsylvania, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.