Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
534 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The deep moisture is now to our east and the slow drying out will
continue for the next few days as a week 500 mb trough works its
way over the western Atlantic ridge. Another ridge develops to
our west this week and warm weather will return around midweek.
The surge of warm air will peak late in the week ahead of a strong
cold front. The 52 member NAEFS implies much cooler and drier air
could move over our region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
Partly to mostly sunny over the region this afternoon. The CAMS
seem to have limited the threat of showers and thunderstorms
better than the larger scale models.

Radar and satellite show the one relatively persistent storm
moving across our southwestern tier. It should move into Maryland
before 3 PM.

The convection the HRRRV2 has been trying to get going for the
last 5 runs or so has developed to the lee of Lake Erie. The
HRRRV2 tracks this across our northern tier and suggests an
increased chance of shower and thunderstorms mainly along and
north of a line from Bradford to Williamsport. Spotty rain mainly
in northern tier. The 12km NAM and GFS too have shown some
rainfall potential up there with this system. Nothing of note.

Most areas will remain measurable rain free. Most CAMS show on QPF
in our area after 10-11 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Very low POPS overnight Monday into Monday morning. Some spotty
areas of patchy fog and hazy. Pesky high dew points in the
east/southeast persist still. Hard to get below 70 when dew points
are in the 70s in southeast.

Temperatures close to normal and overall moisture as PW values
continue to drop. The GFS/GEFS/SREF all show higher PW air to east
and some instability. Thus cannot rule out the chance of showers
and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tried to show highest probabilities mainly to east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main upper level trough axis slowly moves to the East Coast. Closer
to the backside of this trough with cyclonic flow an isolated
shower is possible over our eastern most counties with some
afternoon instability. A strong ridge over the Great Lakes with
dry northwest flow into PA and cooler air with building high
pressure at the surface will lead to mostly sunny skies across the
rest of PA. Temps will be seasonable in the 80s.

A Short-wave tries to move through the upper level ridge Wednesday
with just a isolated convection possible most likely over the
Laurel Mountains. Temps will be a tad warmer under mostly sunny
skies again. Still under the ridge for Thursday but increasing
instability and diffluent flow aloft may lead to isolated
afternoon or evening convection again favoring development over
the mountains but across a braoder region. In general the models
have been over-estimating POPs and precipitation in this typical
summer pattern.

With temps rising each day, Friday looks to be the warmest day of
the week reaching up into the low 90s in some areas through the
Susquehanna Valley. Heat and increasing humidity are expected to
fuel thunderstorms by late in the day in advance of a cold front
which will move southeast across the region Friday night. Models
try to push this front south into VA. With the front near the
Mason-Dixon line Saturday morning there will linger the chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Northern and central PA will
certainly see noticeably drier cooler air Saturday and eventually
this should make it south into the lower Susquehanna Valley as
well. Saturday night will be markedly cooler across central PA.

GFS and ECMWF diverge on solutions for the second half of the
weekend. ECMWF has a dry sunny seasonable day on Sunday across PA.
The GFS on the other hand tries to bring precip back into
northern PA Saturday night but it looks suspecious at this point.
Will wait to see if this continues with later model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Regional radar at 21Z showing widely sct shra/tsra developing
across central Pa ahead of low pressure trough over the Grt Lks.
Although KBFD is the only airfield to have been affected so far, latest
model data supports the chance of a brief vis-reducing shra/tsra
thru this evening across most of central Pa. Based on output from
the latest SPC SSEO, the region least susceptible appears to be
around KMDT/KLNS.

Sct shra/tsra should diminish toward midnight, as blyr cools and
stabilizes. Focus then shifts toward potential of late night fog.
In general, the best chance of sig vis reductions, based on
SREF/downscaled NAM, will be across nw mtns in vicinity of KBFD.
However, any location that receives rainfall this evening will be
susceptible to sig vis reductions from fog late tonight.

Patchy am fog should burn off by 14-16Z Monday. Another trough of
low pressure will swing down from the Grt Lks Monday aftn,
producing another round of sct shra/tsra during the aftn/evening,
causing a brief vis reduction in spots.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...Am fog possible.

WED...No sig wx expected.

THU...Isold pm tsra impacts possible western Pa.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Grumm
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...Grumm/Fitzgerald

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-010900-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

PAZ049-010000-
UNION PA-
737 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF UNION COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM EDT...

AT 737 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CARROLL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRUCE RUN RESERVOIR...SAND BRIDGE STATE PARK...FOREST HILL...R.B.
WINTER STATE PARK AND HARTLETON.

LAT...LON 4098 7702 4092 7707 4089 7714 4097 7723
      4098 7722 4104 7715 4107 7714 4107 7711
      4108 7708 4109 7700 4110 7697 4103 7696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 305DEG 15KT 4107 7717

KF