Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push southeast across Pennsylvania late today
and tonight. High pressure will return for mid week with
continued warm temperatures. Temperatures may trend back to near
or slightly below normal over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8PM.

A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning are also in in effect for
the sern zones today.

A cold front moving over Lake Erie will drop SE across the area
this evening and overnight. A hot, humid and very unstable airmass
is place with RAP CAPEs in excess of 3000j being observed. We are
still very warm aloft so activity has been slow to attain vertical
depth.

Lagging upper trough and sfc cold front will combine with the deep
tropical moisture to bring the threat of some training storms with
highly localized very heavy rainfall of 2 inches or more per hour.

Headwater Flash Flood Guidance values are extremely high and
4 inches plus for the 1-3 hour period, so at this point there
isn't a big concern for flash flooding. However, PWATs are just
about as high as they get around this part of the country, so the
biggest threat will likely be urban and small stream flooding.

HRRR timing suggests the showers/storms taper off and move south
fairly early this evening with improving skies in the wake of the
front. Areas that see rain ahead of the front and clearing skies
behind the front will have a good chance for some late night fog.

Low temps will vary from the l60s across the north...to the lower
70s across the SE zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday looks very warm to hot but with much cooler dewpoints as
compared to today. Highs will range from the low/mid 80s over the
NW to the low/mid 90s over the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
In the extended the heat continues through midweek...then a
cooling trend to near normal highs looks likely for a few days as
several fronts linger over the area and the core of hot
temperatures shifts west.

The upper ridge across the Southern U.S. is forecast to
retrogress into the Southwestern U.S. by late in the week allowing
northern stream energy to produce a weak, but persistent troffing
across the northeast states.

Cold front currently crossing the region is forecast to stall just
south of the PA/MD border. A wave is forecast to form on the front
supported by the developing upper trof, moving east through the
Ohio Valley Friday and crossing PA on Saturday into Sunday. This
looks to bring a prolonged period of unsettled with weather with
showery conds across the state. The cloudiness will further
support cooler high temperatures than recent days. Low
temperatures during this period look to be several degrees above
normal, especially across southern sections of the state.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Developing thunderstorms are bringing localized restrictions to
terminals in the northwest. Thunderstorms will break out in the
hot humid air over all of our CWA this afternoon. Some of the
thunderstorms could cause damaging wind gusts and large hail,
especially over the northern portion of the flying area.

Dewpoints will not dip all that much tonight, so areas of fog
look like a good bet after the thunderstorms move east of the
region. For now will forecast 3-5 miles but would not be
surprised to see local IFR conditions develop. The best chance for
dense fog will be at terminals that see rain today and clearing
skies tonight.

Air does get slightly drier for the middle of the week. It should
not be cold enough at night to make much if any fog in the valleys
of the north. The airfields will likely stay VFR into Thursday.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-WED...VFR.

THU-FRI...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high for Harrisburg today is 99 degrees set in 1940.

Record high for Williamsport is 100 set in 1934.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ027-028-035-
036-049>053-058.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ056-
057-059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...La Corte
CLIMATE...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
508 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

PAZ033-034-252200-
BEDFORD PA-SOMERSET PA-
508 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD AND SOMERSET
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 508 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BLUE KNOB STATE PARK TO NEAR FRIEDENS TO
URSINA. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOMERSET...WINDBER...BEDFORD...FRIEDENS...QUEEN...MEYERSDALE...ST.
CLAIRSVILLE...CENTRAL CITY...OGLETOWN...BLUE KNOB STATE PARK...BUFFALO
MILLS...NEW ENTERPRISE...BERLIN...MOUNT DAVIS...CESSNA...URSINA...ACOSTA...
NEW CENTERVILLE...OSTERBURG AND PLEASANTVILLE.

LAT...LON 3972 7931 3976 7939 3978 7939 3979 7935
      3985 7942 4001 7929 4025 7880 4024 7866
      4033 7862 4029 7851 4024 7845 4030 7843
      4025 7829 4029 7826 4023 7824 4020 7820
      3990 7855 3972 7895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 290DEG 23KT 4030 7862 4002 7895 3983 7936

JUNG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TIONA                   41.75N  79.07W
07/25/2016                   WARREN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON FRONT STREET

0239 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLOOMSBURG              41.00N  76.46W
07/25/2016                   COLUMBIA           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HYDE                    41.01N  78.47W
07/25/2016                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN LAWRENCE TWP.

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEARFIELD              41.02N  78.44W
07/25/2016                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR CLEARFIELD.

0354 PM     HAIL             NORTHERN CAMBRIA        40.67N  78.78W
07/25/2016  E1.00 INCH       CAMBRIA            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
07/25/2016                   CLINTON            PA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN IN LOCK HAVEN...SOME 20 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

0426 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINGATE                 40.93N  77.81W
07/25/2016                   CENTRE             PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ALONG EAGLE VALLEY ROAD IN BOGGS
            TOWNSHIP.

0434 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALMEDIA                 41.01N  76.39W
07/25/2016                   COLUMBIA           PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREES DOWN NEAR ALMEDIA.

0437 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NITTANY                 41.00N  77.56W
07/25/2016                   CENTRE             PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ALONG NITTANY RIDGE ROAD IN WALKER
            TOWNSHIP.

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PETERSBURG              40.57N  78.05W
07/25/2016                   HUNTINGDON         PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE LIMBS REPORTED DOWN NEAR PETERSBURG.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601723 CTP1601724 CTP1601726 CTP1601727 CTP1601725
CTP1601728 CTP1601732 CTP1601729 CTP1601730 CTP1601731

EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
542 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

PAZ056-057-059-252245-
DAUPHIN PA-LEBANON PA-PERRY PA-
542 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LEBANON...DAUPHIN...AND
PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TOWER CITY TO NEAR MEISERVILLE TO SPRUCE
HILL. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINGLESTOWN...MYERSTOWN...SKYLINE VIEW...LICKDALE...
BIG SPRING STATE PARK...FORT INDIANTOWN GAP...
COLONEL DENNING STATE PARK...ROCKVILLE...SHERMANSDALE...
FREDERICKSBURG...NEWPORT...NEW BUFFALO...LOYSVILLE...MILLERSBURG...
NEW BLOOMFIELD...ELIZABETHVILLE...ICKESBURG...MARYSVILLE...
SAND HILL AND DUNCANNON.

LAT...LON 4029 7733 4026 7742 4031 7736 4031 7737
      4019 7761 4023 7760 4022 7764 4026 7764
      4025 7767 4029 7767 4038 7753 4040 7754
      4056 7717 4059 7716 4060 7703 4063 7695
      4058 7689 4052 7661 4054 7653 4037 7624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 318DEG 23KT 4060 7649 4063 7699 4049 7747

JUNG

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