Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1209 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast across
central Pa later this afternoon and this evening. High pressure
will then build over the northeast conus over the weekend. A warm
front will lift northeast from the Ohio Valley early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A potent mid lvl shortwave will sweep across the region later
today. Area of showers ahead of this feature (focused in an area
of enhanced mean 925-700 mb warm advection) will affect the
mountains of NW PA through early this afternoon.

Diurnal heating of an increasingly humid air mass across eastern
PA invof a strengthening llvl lee trough should support sct-
numerous showers and sctd tsra...mainly across the area east of
the Susquehanna River this afternoon. NCAR ensemble indicating
CAPE values nr 2000 j/kg in this region by aftn, which could
support an isold lg hail/damaging wind threat. Latest meso
analysis shows sfc based lifted indices of -4 to -5 and MU capes
of 1500-2000 j/kg across the mid and lower Susq Valley.

Moderately strong deep layer shear will create the chc for some
organized storm structure with the potential for localized gusty
wind and nickle to quarter sized hail. Storms should move from
about 270 deg at 25-35 kts.

A second chance of shra/tsra will accompany passage of the actual
sfc cold front across the nw mtns this aftn and the rest of
central Pa and the Susq Valley this evening/early tonight.
However, below avg PWATs will likely result in only isold to sct
coverage. Highest /likely/ Pops will be reserved for the eastern
counties early this aftn as mentioned above.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The risk of lingering showers/tsra will end from northwest to
southeast this evening with passage of cold front and arrival of
low pwat air mass. Mostly clear skies and slightly blw avg temps
will follow for late tonight and Saturday, as sfc high builds overthe
state.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Abnormally dry airmass accompanying dome of high pressure will
support high confidence in fair/dry weather Sunday with seasonal
temperatures and comfortable humidity.

Forecast issues continue to center around potential rain risk
early next week associated with frontal wave of low pressure
evolving eastward along quasi-stationary boundary draped
near/along the Ohio River and I-64/70 corridors. The deterministic
models agree that a convective complex should be entering the
lower OH Valley by early Monday. From this point (around 04/12z)
on the EC and CMC favor a slightly stronger/northern wave versus
the GEFS, which keeps the bulk of QPF south of the PA/MD border.
The model timing of pcpn also remains an issue given the small
scale nature of the feature at longer ranges.

Until the models can converge on a common solution, will maintain
continuity and make very minor changes to the forecast for early
next week. NDFD grids utilized a multi-model ensemble blend of
NBM/EC/WPC. The most likely outcome still calls for dry wx in most
of central PA through July 4th, although southern Pa stands the
best chance for rain Monday.

In the longer range, NAEFS and ECENS both showing rising heights
across the ne conus during next week, as center of subtropical
ridge migrates from the sw states to the se states. ECENS mean 8h
temps rise to arnd 20c by late week, suggesting we will see max
temps nr 90F at that time.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast across
central Pa this evening.

At 1530z, conditions primarily VFR with just a few spots in the
mid/lower Susq Valley invof KLNS ocnly dipping to MVFR in the
ceiling category. Significant breaks in the mid-level altocu
cloud deck will lead to increasing llvl instability ahead of a
potent shortwave that will sweep across the region later today.

An area of showers ahead of this feature across NW PA is expected
to dwindle a bit through 18z...as they encounter/entrain drier
air. However, diurnal heating of an increasingly humid air mass
across eastern Pa should support sct tsra across areas east of the
Susquehanna River this afternoon, bringing isolated MVFR cigs and
vsbys.

A second chance of shra/tsra will accompany passage of the cold
front across the nw mtns this aftn and the rest of central Pa this
evening. However, below avg PWATs will likely result in only isold
to sct coverage, and kept mention to SHRA/VCSH for now.

OUTLOOK...

Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Chance of pm showers/reduced cigs, mainly south.

Tue...Slight chance shower/tstm with minimal impacts.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Lambert
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
552 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-
063-021000-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-PERRY-CUMBERLAND-
552 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ042-051>053-057>059-064>066-021000-
SULLIVAN-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
552 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 60 MPH OR GREATER
AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1246 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

PAZ053-011715-
COLUMBIA PA-
1246 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1246 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
EAST BERWICK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BERWICK...MIFFLINVILLE...STILLWATER AND BRIAR CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 7630 4116 7640 4120 7632 4113 7628
      4114 7623 4103 7623 4101 7622
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 246DEG 25KT 4111 7626

LAMBERT