Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
527 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving east through the Ohio Valley will push a plume
of deep moisture northward into into the state today as a warm
front also lifts north across the region. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms...some severe...will move across the state during
the reminder of the afternoon and early evening hours.

Warm...mainly dry...and much less humid air will move in for
Monday. Another cold front will move southeast from the Great
Lakes on Tuesday bringing another round of unsettled conditions
for Tuesday into early Wednesday...along with cooler temperatures.
Mainly dry weather will prevail on Thursday and early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*Squall line has cleared the Lower Susq River Valley, and Severe
 Thunderstorm Watch #236 has been cancelled for those counties.

*Severe threat continues over Nwrn PA for psbls severe storms
 through early evening

Secondary squall line pushing through northwest PA producing most
impressive storms of the day, with some 50k foot tops seen within
the past hour. Bowing line segments reaching into the northwest
mountains with ongoing warnings at this hour, and Warren 911
center inundated with damage calls. HRRR dampens these in the next
few hours...with improving conditions later tonight everywhere.

Well after midnight...expect partial clearing and showers should
greatly decrease in coverage with cooler and drier air advecting
into the commonwealth and PWATS decreasing by approx 0.50 of an
inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Low temps at sunrise Monday should be in the mid 50s to mid 60s
(or about 8 deg lower than those early Sunday).

Weak surface ridging across the region monday will provide some
morning sunshine with sw flow at the surface and aloft. Cooling
mid and upper levels in the afternoon and the approach of a weak
cfront will spark some scattered showers and even a few isolated
low-topped tsra across the wrn mtns.

Locations SE of the allegheny front should see at most a few
isolated showers after 18z monday. High temps Monday will be near
to slightly above normal...but with much more comfortable
dewpoints in the 50s.

Main change was to back off AM showers some. Did not go real
warm on Monday...some of the guidance looks too warm. Granted
850 mb temperatures are still warm...but cold advection behind
first front today should taper warm air.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not a lot of change from recent days.

Still looking at energy rotating around the deep vortex to the
north of our area from Monday into Wed. Expect some showers and
storms each day into Wed. Temperatures will cool to well below
normal...especially during the day.

Went with dry weather for Thursday.

Some chance of showers and even thunderstorms later Friday into
next weekend...given large scale pattern. Adjusted superblend
pops some. Very strong warm advection with nw flow would support
some at least some showers...with the potential for storms. Also
far western areas could be quite warm. 12Z EC shows the low blows
up as it moves off the coast by Sunday...hinting that system could
result in convection.

For now did edge temperatures and dewpoints up some for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest radar imagery shows narrow line of intense rainfall
stretched ne to sw across central PA along leading edge of area
of moderate to heavy rain...preceding approaching cold front/upper
trof. Visible satellite imagery and sfc obs continue to show sig
cloud cover in warm sector ahead of ongoing pcpn. Clouds are
limiting Sfc warming which in turn is likely prevnting further
intensification of current cells and formation of new convection
within the warm sector. Widespread mvfr with embedded ifr
accompany the line of rain. Elsewhere vfr conds are expected.

By 00Z Mon most of the storms will be off to the east of the
terminals. Expect another round of IFR cigs and vsbys at all
terminals overnight into Monday morning, especially in areas that
received precipitation.

OUTLOOK...

Mon-Wed...VFR with ocnl MVFR with scattered showers/isold PM
tstms.

Thu-Fri...VFR/No sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gartner/Martin
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Gartner
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Ceru/Gartner

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
062130-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
523 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-062130-
JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
523 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
610 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BIGLERVILLE             39.93N  77.25W
06/05/2016                   ADAMS              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            A SINGLE TREE BROUGHT WIRES DOWN

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     YORK                    39.96N  76.73W
06/05/2016                   YORK               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES DOWN. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN
            ALONG EMIG MILL ROAD

0443 PM     TSTM WND GST     LANCASTER               40.04N  76.30W
06/05/2016  M64 MPH          LANCASTER          PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARADISE                40.01N  76.12W
06/05/2016                   LANCASTER          PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARREN                  41.84N  79.14W
06/05/2016                   WARREN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STICKNEY                41.96N  78.81W
06/05/2016                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN CORYDON TOWNSHIP

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHBURG               41.85N  78.77W
06/05/2016                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN LAFAYETTE TOWNSHIP

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
06/05/2016                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN BRADFORD TOWNSHIP

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601657 CTP1601658 CTP1601659 CTP1601661 CTP1601660
CTP1601662 CTP1601663 CTP1601664

MACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
635 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 E WARREN             41.84N  78.95W
06/05/2016                   WARREN             PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS BOATS OVERTURNED OR SUNK AT THE KINZU-WOLF RUN
            MARIUNA

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601665

LA CORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
637 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

PAZ006-037-052315-
TIOGA PA-POTTER PA-
637 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF POTTER AND TIOGA
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 636 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GENESEE TO DENTON HILL STATE PARK TO NEAR
WHARTON. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS HAD BEEN
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES BUT THEY
HAVE WEAKENED RECENTLY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LYMAN RUN STATE PARK AROUND 640 PM EDT.
  GALETON AROUND 645 PM EDT.
  HARRISON VALLEY AROUND 650 PM EDT.
  GAINES...CROSS FORK AND CHERRY SPRINGS STATE PARK AROUND 655 PM
  EDT.
  OLE BULL STATE PARK AND LEONARD HARRISON STATE PARK AROUND 700 PM
  EDT.
  WELLSBORO...ELKLAND AND KEENEYVILLE AROUND 710 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE OSCEOLA...KNOXVILLE
AND AUSTIN.

LAT...LON 4181 7716 4154 7751 4154 7760 4148 7760
      4147 7805 4163 7821 4164 7820 4161 7788
      4200 7764 4200 7718
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 263DEG 43KT 4200 7785 4176 7781 4155 7810

DANGELO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
653 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. MARYS               41.43N  78.56W
06/05/2016                   ELK                PA   911 CALL CENTER

            5-6 TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601666

MACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
654 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

PAZ006-011-012-041-052315-
CAMERON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-POTTER PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
654 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 652 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WHARTON TO NEAR MEDIX RUN. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST AT 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  KETTLE CREEK STATE PARK AND STEVENSON DAM AROUND 655 PM EDT.
  CROSS FORK AND TAMARACK AROUND 700 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 4154 7750 4118 7778 4119 7790 4125 7790
      4123 7792 4122 7794 4121 7794 4122 7796
      4120 7798 4123 7824 4153 7795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 281DEG 34KT 4148 7794 4122 7833

DANGELO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEEDVILLE               41.28N  78.49W
06/05/2016                   ELK                PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES DOWN. TREE AND POWER LINES ON CAR ON PLUM STREET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1601667

MACH