Lake Effect Snow Warning 8, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
357 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area on Thursday. Ahead of the
front a wintry mix of snow...sleet and freezing rain will develop
overnight and change to rain after sunrise Thursday. Lake effect
snow showers will occur late Thursday into Friday, as a deep storm
forms off the New England coast Thursday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
2am update...radar filling in with precip moving east at a steady
clip...entering western CWA. Forecast on track with mixed
precipitation for southern portions and snow for north.

Previous discussion...
Warm advection precipitation ahead of approaching
cold front will develop west to east overnight. Much of the
precipitation will start as as now and continue as such through
later Thursday morning. Given light qp expected, generally light
snow accums are expected. The exception could be across far
eastern counties, specifically Sullivan and Schuylkill, where
model guidance is indicating higher qp and hier terrain/upslope
favoring. Also, current indications are that warm air just above
the surface/850mb level will surge northward across south central
PA. This will allow melting of pcpn and combined with temps
falling into the mid 20s will pose a threat for a period of
freezing rain. Have thus hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for
roughly the southwestern quarter of the cwa for overnight til 9am
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Rain will likely mix with the snow across the south, given
borderline temperatures at low levels. Upslope flow expected
late Thursday afternoon across the far west, thus a winter storm
watch has been issued for Somerset county. Somerset County on the
northern edge of the heavier snow noted by WPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A lake effect snow watch is in effect for Warren county Thursday
night into Friday evening. Deep NW flow will bring bands of snow
showers and squalls to the northwest from late Thursday into
Friday, along with gusty winds.

Activity will taper off late Friday night, as winds shift more to
the west and southwest late, and 500 mb heights rise.

The first part of Saturday looks ok. Another fast moving system
will bring more rain and snow showers to the area for the end of
the year, into early Sunday morning. Most of Sunday looks to be
dry at this point.

Next Monday and Tuesday looks like the event we just had, mild
temperatures will work into the area, as a deep storm system lifts
northeast across the upper lakes.

PA will be on the northern edge of any potential for a southern
stream system later next week. Another brief cold spell to follow
the front by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The next system continues to move into the region. Timing is
slightly different as any mixed precipitation transitioned quickly
to snow at JST. Per the radar it looks like other then the higher
elevations this should be the case. Periods of IFR are possible
for BFD JST and AOO between 08Z to 10Z.  A frontal system will
bring snow /north/ or a wintry mix /south/ to the area, developing
overnight and continuing into Thurs. The precip may change over to
plain rain across srn PA. This system is quick- moving, and
locations east of the Allegheny Front should begin to see
improvement Thurs aftn.

Gusty west to northwest winds will develop behind the front Thurs
aftn and continue through Fri, with MVFR/IFR conds in scattered
lake-effect and upslope snow showers affecting the north and west
/BFD and JST/.

Outlook...

Fri...Windy with MVFR/IFR snow showers across the north and west.
Mainly VFR across central and eastern areas.

Sat...VFR early, restrictions develop with possible snow showers
PM.

Sun...Mainly VFR.

Sun night into Mon...MVFR and IFR with snow showers early, then
rain showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Watch from this evening through Friday
evening for PAZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ042-058.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
PAZ024>026-033>036-063-064.
Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Friday evening
for PAZ033.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gartner
NEAR TERM...Gartner
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Ceru/Evanego

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