Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1251 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for 06z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...Low confidence exists for the upcoming forecast
period. Convection associated with frontal boundary to the north
is slowly drifting ESE. This activity could move into South Texas
during the overnight and have retained tempo groups for TSRA.
Ceilings will gradually lower during the overnight into the mvfr
range and perhaps ifr range. Improvements in cigs are expected by
mid to late morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
will be possible later today. At this time, only included -shra/vcsh
remarks until trends for the afternoon/evening hours become more
clear.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorm watch 181 expired on time at
11pm. Strong to severe thunderstorms north of the area are moving
to the ESE. Some of this activity may approach the northern parts
of the area in a few hours. Trends will be monitored.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 725 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated the grids to reflect SVR TSTM WATCH 181 in
effect until 04Z for the 4 western counties. Adjusted pops higher
across the western areas and lower across the eastern areas based
on all the CAM/Synoptic scale guidance. Also, confined the severe
threat to the 6 western counties this evening. Diminishing CAPES
and increasing CIN should lower the severe potential after
midnight and will adjust accordingly. Still expecting a second
wave of pcpn to develop/propagate into the CWA after midnight in
association with the better forcing from the front and approaching
shortwave. Could still see some potent wind gusts with any MCS
that moves esewd during the morning hours.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 646 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...Please see the discussion below for more details.

AVIATION...An extremely unstable airmass across most of South TX,
especially across the western Brush Country, has already led to
several severe thunderstorms late this aftn between Cotulla and
Laredo. Enhanced cumulus and persistent convergence near Laredo
will warrant the mention of thunderstorms this evening through at
least 04Z. Further east, the storms may get close to Alice but
should remain mostly north and west. Expect this initial cluster
of severe storms to slowly diminish by midnight with the loss of
daytime heating and increasing cap strength. Another round of
storms will develop/move into the Brush Country after 07Z in
association with the southward-moving cold front and an upper
level disturbance. Laredo is expected to experience pcpn for most
of the period after midnight with this second batch of pcpn.
Further east, will target an 08Z to 15Z timeframe for possible
storms with strong winds affecting ALice, Corpus Christi, and
Victoria. Rain should slowly wane thereafter as the airmass
stabilizes with the passage of the front and upper disturbance.

As for the cigs, MVFR conditions should quickly develop between
02Z and 05Z across most areas given the moist easterly winds.
Brief IFR conditions are expected in or near thunderstorms. MVFR
cigs will slowly improve to VFR levels by noon Wednesday in most
areas.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night...Plenty of
instability out there this afternoon with a boundary along our
northern border. This boundary is the focus for convection that
has developed across far northeaster zones this afternoon. Still
have the potential for additional development, but will need some
more heating west to reach convective temperature. Biggest threat
will be large hail and the potential for damaging wind. Very high
CAPE across the entire area. Eastern zones south of the boundary
remain capped...and the environment will likely be such that any
convection that approaches through the afternoon/evening will
weaken. That said...PWAT values forecast to be back up around 2
inches by this evening...18z CRP sounding indicated 1.72 inches,
so plenty of moisture to work with. At this time will not issue
flash flood watch for coastal counties with models indicating
lower chances of significant convection there. However...if
convection does begin to approach the area where heavy rains fell
the past few days, a flash flood watch may become necessary.

Cold front will push into the area tonight keeping the potential
for convection going. Models continue to be all over the place as
far as convection for tomorrow with no consistency. Have chance
pops area wide once again as boundary stalls over the region. QPF
values still not expected to be excessive yet...though isolated
locations could get heavy rains with PWAT remaining around 2
inches. Coastal trough begins to develop Wednesday night, setting
the stage for additional convection.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...Pattern will begin fairly
wet and stormy as the upper low over the SW CONUS opens up and
shears across TX as a short wave.  Forcing associated with the short
wave combined with deep mstr (pwat >2.0 inch) will create a
favorable heavy rain scenario.  See hydro section for more info.
Strong storms also possible Thurs with decent instability but
limited a bit by high mstr content.

Storm chances decrease through the weekend into early next week as
short wave ridging develops ahead of the next system to dig into the
southwest.  Will maintain low pops over most of the area throughout
the period though as mstr remains high.  We'll also have a residual
boundary over the area Fri/Sat which could focus activity a bit. HPC
temps look tough to beat through the period.

HYDROLOGY...Isolated locations could see heavy rainfall tonight
and Wednesday with scattered convection, but higher chances remain
for the Thursday time period. Much of the area remains in the Day
3 Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Highest flooding risk
remains where the heavy rains fell Sun-Mon in an Arc along the
coastal plain. As little as 1-2 inches of rain would cause
flooding problems there and that is around how much is forecast at
this point for Thursday. Flash Flood Watches will likely be needed
for parts of the area. River flooding is also possible especially
on faster responding smaller tributaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  85  74  85  74  /  50  80  50  30  10
Victoria          71  83  69  85  70  /  50  80  60  30  10
Laredo            72  90  72  90  74  /  60  50  40  30  20
Alice             72  86  73  88  73  /  50  80  40  30  10
Rockport          75  83  75  83  76  /  50  80  60  30  10
Cotulla           70  86  71  88  72  /  60  70  30  30  20
Kingsville        73  87  73  87  74  /  50  70  40  30  10
Navy Corpus       75  82  76  82  76  /  50  80  50  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

TB/78...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ229>234-239>247-181645-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVER STORMS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE STORMS ON THURSDAY MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ADDING TO MORE FLOODING ISSUES IF THEY DEVELOP OVER THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-181645-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O\CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS TODAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
848 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             RANCHITOS LAS LOMAS     27.63N 99.20W
05/17/2016  E3.00 INCH       WEBB               TX   PUBLIC

            PICTURE RECEIVED FROM SOCIAL MEDIA OF HAIL IN EXCESS OF
            THREE INCHES DIAMETER.

&&

TJOHNSTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
944 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

TXZ239-180315-
WEBB-
944 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...

AT 943 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER RIO BRAVO...OR
10 MILES SOUTH OF LAREDO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTH LAREDO...RIO BRAVO AND EL CENIZO.

LAT...LON 2727 9949 2730 9949 2731 9954 2734 9951
      2735 9951 2741 9949 2745 9950 2748 9948
      2738 9913 2727 9919 2727 9933 2732 9937
      2726 9945 2727 9947 2726 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 295DEG 24KT 2739 9950

TMT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
147 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

TXZ239-180715-
WEBB-
147 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...

AT 145 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR UNITEC
INDUSTRIAL PARK...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF LAREDO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOTINES...RANCHOS PENITAS WEST...ORVIL AND UNITEC INDUSTRIAL PARK.

LAT...LON 2763 9959 2764 9960 2764 9962 2765 9962
      2783 9964 2790 9916 2763 9913
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 263DEG 28KT 2773 9952

TMT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
221 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

TXZ233-234-180800-
VICTORIA-GOLIAD-
221 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN VICTORIA AND
NORTHEASTERN GOLIAD COUNTIES...

AT 218 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WEESATCHE TO 7 MILES WEST OF THOMASTON...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VICTORIA...FANNIN...VICTORIA DETAR HOSPITAL NORTH...SALEM...COLETO CREEK
PARK...OAK VILLAGE...NURSERY...VICTORIA MALL...VICTORIA REGIONAL AIRPORT...
DOWNTOWN VICTORIA...VICTORIA RIVERSIDE PARK...SCHROEDER...FORDTRAN...
TELFERNER...ANDER...WESER...VICTORIA COLONY CREEK COUNTRY CLUB...
WEESATCHE...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND MISSION VALLEY.

LAT...LON 2899 9681 2891 9678 2861 9726 2878 9762
      2892 9742 2887 9730 2910 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 281DEG 36KT 2884 9750

TMT