Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1215 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND EXTENDING WEST TO NEAR
COTULLA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY WHERE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH THE CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND OFFSHORE AROUND
06Z. WILL SHOW MVFR CIGS FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWERING TO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. CIGS WILL LIFT
TO MVFR BY 14-15Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH CONVECTION ANCHORED OVER THAT REGION
WHILE SOUTH TEXAS REGION WAS IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. FLOW AT 85H EVEN VEERED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
BEST DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO JUST
NORTH OF COTULLA. ONLY 00Z HI-RES ARW SHOWED THIS BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME. ADJUSTED WINDS TO SHOW THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
STALLING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER REGION...WILL
ALLOW TIME FOR AIR MASS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MODELS SHOW MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 35-40 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. THE HRRR/LATEST TEXAS TECH WRF SEEM TO
HAVE THE BEST DEPICTION OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. THESE MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND GROW UPSCALE
TO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT MOVES OFFSHORE BY THIS
EVENING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE...BOUNDARY AND PERSISTENT DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WILL WATCH TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDING WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES IN THE WATCH.

MARINE...WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS...THE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED. WITH LOWER WINDS...SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SEAS WILL STILL BE IN THE SCA RANGE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT CANCELED THE SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
SCEC CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THERE THROUGH TONIGHT.

TIDES...TIDES AND BAY WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN 1.5 TO ALMOST
2 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED. BUT LEVELS REMAIN JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
2 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  73  83  72  82  /  60  70  60  40  50
VICTORIA          76  70  81  70  82  /  90  80  60  40  50
LAREDO            87  71  90  72  88  /  70  50  40  40  30
ALICE             84  71  86  71  85  /  70  60  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          81  74  81  72  82  /  70  80  60  40  50
COTULLA           81  68  88  69  86  /  80  50  40  40  30
KINGSVILLE        83  72  86  72  84  /  60  60  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       79  74  81  73  81  /  60  70  60  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...
     SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

TMT/89...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
506 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

TXZ229>234-239>247-191015-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
506 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTH
TEXAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE PERSISTENT AND SLOW MOVING
STORMS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NUECES...KLEBERG...SAN
PATRICIO...CALHOUN AND ARANSAS COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BUT STILL PRESENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED
INTO TUESDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...ALTHOUGH A REQUEST FOR
SPOTTER REPORTS IS MORE LIKELY IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-191015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O\CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
506 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTH
TEXAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 7
AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BUT STILL PRESENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...ALTHOUGH A REQUEST FOR
SPOTTER REPORTS IS MORE LIKELY IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING.

TE/GW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1221 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

TXZ239-181745-
WEBB-
1221 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST TIP OF WEBB COUNTY...

AT 1219 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHUPADERA
RANCH AIRPORT...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EL INDIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHUPADERA RANCH AIRPORT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2820 9992 2813 9994 2810 10006 2812 10007
      2815 10009 2816 10012 2817 10014 2817 10016
      2820 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 221DEG 8KT 2822 10012

JM