Small Craft Advisory 72, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1103 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change in the forecast mentality late this evening as
things are looking to be in decent shape. Fog seems to be less of
an issue over the inland sections at this time and even along the
some of the barrier islands. Not seeing the need for a dense fog
advisory at this point with winds remaining strong enough ahead
of the approaching cold front and veering more towards the south
to keep some drier air and mixing going. Could still be a very
brief period of thicker fog, less than one-half mile, right ahead
of the front. Otherwise, the front is still trucking southward and
should be sweeping through the region by mid-Thursday morning.

Update for 06Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Tonight...LIFR/VLIFR. Another slug of moisture will advect back
into a majority of our terminals with LIFR/VLIFR vsbys and cigs.
Have backed off the vsbys across the region but keep the lower
cigs in-lieu of. Light southeasterly winds early tonight will
slowly veer towards the south-southwest ahead of an approaching
cold front. High confidence.

Thursday...VFR. Strong northerly winds are expected behind a
strong cold front by mid to late-morning. Gusts upwards of 30
knots expected as conditions improve. A few showers are possible
along the frontal boundary but they will be short lived. High
confidence.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

Nice warm up today with a mixture of south-southwesterly winds.
This has lead to some clearing across the region including the
bays where dense fog has plagued these areas for the past few
days. However, winds will again become onshore with dense fog
across the near shore waters to slowly move back inland into the
bays and the coastal counties. This will lead to areas of fog for
the the coastal areas where fog may become dense. Confident that
the fog should be rather persistent along the coast as winds also
weaken ahead of the approaching cold front. Also, moisture should
pool ahead of this front to allow for fog to develop farther
inland. However, winds may begin to take on a weak southwest flow
late tonight which has a tendency to improve visibilities. Right
now, maintained areas of fog across the inland areas but patchy
dense fog will remain a possibility. Will monitor the situation to
either issue or hold back on a dense fog advisory for the inland
locations. Temperatures tonight and Thursday are a bit tricky
mainly due to the timing of the front. Current timing of the front
brings it through South Texas around sunrise. This may drop
overnight lows down into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the
northern tier from Cotulla to Victoria, yet keep temps in the
upper 60s to low 70s across the Coastal Bend and into the southern
Brush Country toward Laredo. Daytime highs may occur early in the
morning as temperatures are expected to drop through the day,
although a slight warm up is possible during the afternoon. Will
maintain overall high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across
the region. Scattered showers are expected to develop along the
frontal boundary as moisture increases further. Activity should
quickly push offshore through the morning hours. But with this
cold front comes strong winds that are expected to mix down to the
surface. Most of the region should reach Wind Advisory criteria,
with the exception of the Rio Grande Plains although this region
should remain quite breezy. Winds should become stronger the
farther south-southeast you go with the coastal locations being
the strongest, while gusts to gale force will be possible across
the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. The Marine Dense Fog Advisory
will likely be removed heading into the Thursday as the front
pushes through bringing drier and cooler air. Winds will gradually
diminish through Thursday night, with temperatures cooling into
the mid 40s across much of South Texas.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A rapid transition to return flow is expected early in the fcst pd.
This will lead to thickening cloud cover and generally light pcpn
developing mainly from Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Pcpn
is expected to become more convective in nature during the day on
Saturday as increasing southerly flow boosts dewpoints back into the
60s again.  Could see a few thunderstorms over the open waters
mainly Saturday aftn and eve given marginal CAPEs.  Isentropic
upglide along with an approaching weak shortwave trough axis and the
RRQ of a 120 knot jet streak will be the main pcpn drivers.  Ppcn
will be more isolated and limited to the far eastern areas on Sunday
as the main source of lift shifts ewd.  The CWA will be well within
the warm sector once again by Sunday and thus above normal temps
will prevail through at least Tuesday.  Likely to see areas of fog
during this timeframe given the SSTs in the lower to mid 60s and
dewpoints at least 5 degs warmer than those readings.  The models
are getting closer in agreement with the strong cold front expected
next week. Latest solns point towards a Wednesday fropa.  For now
will lean in this direction although confidence remains low given
the decent ensemble spread exhibitied by the various members.

MARINE...

Marine Dense Fog to continue tonight through early Thursday ahead
of the next cold front. With the passage of the front,
visibilities will drastically improve.

Gale Watch Remains in effect for Thursday and will likely be
replaced with a Gale Warning overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    68  69  49  62  59  /  10  30  10  10  20
Victoria          62  66  46  59  53  /  20  10  10  10  40
Laredo            65  66  49  59  55  /  10  20  10  10  20
Alice             65  68  47  62  57  /  10  30  10  10  20
Rockport          65  68  50  63  59  /  20  30  10  10  20
Cotulla           59  65  47  60  52  /  10  10  10  10  20
Kingsville        67  70  49  64  59  /  10  30  10  10  20
Navy Corpus       69  69  52  64  59  /  10  40  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from 8 AM CST Thursday through Thursday afternoon For
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Thursday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...
     Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
     Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     out 20 NM.

&&

GH/77...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
420 PM CST WED DEC 28 2016

TXZ229>234-239>247-292230-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
420 PM CST WED DEC 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY AT TIMES OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281 THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER IS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.

WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-292230-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
420 PM CST WED DEC 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A GALE WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.