Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... MAIN ISSUE IN THE
SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. VIS SATELLITE REVEALS A SHARP SFC BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE
CU DRAPED FROM ROBSTOWN TO VICTORIA...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NW.
BEST INSTABILITY AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OVER VICTORIA
WHERE SEVERAL WEAK CELLSHAVE FORMED AND DISSIPATED IN THE PAST
HOUR. LAPS SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO
BEING MET WITH CAPES AROUND 4000J/KG. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MENTION AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR STORM MAY
BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT PATCHYFOG AND STRATUS TO FORM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVES INTO
S TX FROM NE MEXICO. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN CHC POPS SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN CWA. THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN THE HAZY CONDITONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FROPA MONDAY.

COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE...ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DUE
TO A WEAKING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...TIDES STILL PEAKED ABOUT 1 1/4
FT ABOVE NORMAL AROUND NOON TODAY (2.25FT MSL) ON THE GULF SIDE
NEAR PORT ARANSAS. TIDES ARE SIMILARLY HIGH ON THE INLAND BAY
SIDE...AND WILL BE SLOW TO FALL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP POOLING OF
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG
WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD WILL AID IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN COLD SECTOR BEHIND FRONT...AND
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH OMEGA PATTERN
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK.  A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY MODIFY LATE IN THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  87  73  81  65  /  10  30  40  60  40
VICTORIA          72  85  69  77  61  /  10  30  50  60  40
LAREDO            74  94  72  79  64  /  10  20  40  60  20
ALICE             74  89  72  80  62  /  10  30  30  60  40
ROCKPORT          76  87  73  79  66  /  10  30  50  60  40
COTULLA           72  89  67  75  62  /  10  20  50  50  20
KINGSVILLE        75  88  74  81  64  /  10  20  30  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       77  85  75  80  67  /  10  20  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

JM/75...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
313 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TXZ229>234-239>247-012015-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
313 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COASTAL BEND ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 77. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TIDE LEVELS 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALSO EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG GULF
FACING BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT.

TIDAL LEVELS MAY REMAIN AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INTO
MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED DURING
THIS TIME. STRONG SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-012015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O\CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
313 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WIND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
335 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TXZ234-246-247-302115-
CALHOUN-VICTORIA-REFUGIO-
335 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
VICTORIA...NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND NORTHWESTERN REFUGIO COUNTIES...

AT 335 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WOOD HI TO NEAR DACOSTA TO MCFADDIN
TO 6 MILES NORTH OF REFUGIO. THE STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCFADDIN...DACOSTA...BLOOMINGTON...WOOD HI AND PLACEDO.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2885 9670 2884 9672 2882 9672 2879 9669
      2877 9670 2877 9668 2873 9672 2860 9681
      2835 9719 2833 9738 2854 9707 2867 9699
      2884 9681 2887 9673
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 255DEG 3KT 2881 9679 2869 9691 2856 9699 2840
9724

87

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
401 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TXZ234-246-302130-
VICTORIA-REFUGIO-
401 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL VICTORIA
AND NORTHWESTERN REFUGIO COUNTIES...

AT 400 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MCFADDIN TO 7 MILES NORTH OF
QUINTANA TO NEAR REFUGIO. THE STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REFUGIO...MCFADDIN AND QUINTANA.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2863 9699 2856 9714 2840 9735 2833 9741
      2826 9728 2835 9710 2849 9688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 232DEG 5KT 2853 9704 2845 9718 2837 9733

87