Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...APPEARS CONVECTION IS COMING TO AN END SO REMOVED ALL
THE THUNDER FROM THE TERMINALS. STILL A ROGUE SHOWER NORTH OF
ALICE BUT THINK THIS WILL DIE ENOUGH NOT TO PUT IN TERMINAL THERE.
WINDS COME UP A BIT LATER THIS EVENING BUT OVER THINK WINDS WILL
BE BELOW 11 KNOTS (MAYBE HIGHER AT KCRP). STILL GOING FOR MVFR
CIGS AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AROUND THE PREVIOUS TIMES. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE AREA-WIDE BY 25/16Z WITH SOUTH WINDS AOA 11 KNOTS
(LOWER AT KLRD)...THEN INCREASING AND BACKING TO SE/SSE KCRP AND
KVCT (JUST BACKING AT KALI) DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THERMAL
GRADIENT TIGHTENS EAST BUT SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES KALI IN
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR AT KLRD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SE WINDS
TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME MORE LIGHT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WILL BASE THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING ON RADAR TRENDS BUT
OVERALL THINK THE RAIN CHANCES ARE GOING DOWNHILL FAST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING SOUTH TEXAS RAPIDLY GETTING ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WHICH MEANS OUR AREA WILL MAINLY
BE ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE. THUS...AM NOT TOO KEEN ON RAIN CHANCES
THIS EVENING (AND EVEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON). CONFIDENCE IS ENHANCED
BY LATEST 4 KM MODELS WHICH ARE SHOWING VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
EARLY THEN ENDING THINGS NO LATER THAN 01Z. UNLESS RADAR SHOWS MORE
COVERAGE BEFORE ISSUANCE...WILL LIKELY GO WITH VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING (AND ADJUST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY DOWNWARD
ACCORDINGLY)...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND COAST. NOT A LOT IN SENSITIVE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID. PARTLY
CLOUDY MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT (MAINLY CLEAR
WEST)...WITH POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY INLAND EAST TOWARD MORNING.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM...HUMID AND DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HIT THE CENTURY MARK IN LAREDO AND AREAS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 23C-25C (GFS VERY TOASTY AT THIS LEVEL).
WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
AXIS (IMPACTS OR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH)...WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT
OVERNIGHT AND THAT SHOULD MEAN A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. GENERALLY
GOING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT THREE PERIODS (AND
HOPEFULLY NOT SHOWING A WARM BIAS).

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SCEC TONIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND POSSIBLE SCA MONDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SCEC WINDS. EVENING CONVECTION
WILL TAPER OFF WELL BEFORE 06Z...WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
AFTERWARDS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE.
BROAD UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A DRY LINE WILL TRY TO
PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ACTIVE PATTERN BUT DO NOT LINE UP WELL
WITH TIMING AND POSITION OF CONVECTION...SO STICKING WITH A BLEND OF
THE TWO. IN GENERAL THOUGH SEEMS LIKE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE THE
MORE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP.

EXPECT A VERY WARM WEEK WITH 850 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 21 AND 25
WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S WEST DAILY. FARTHER EAST EXPECT HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE COAST. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  90  74  86  74  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          70  88  72  86  72  /  30  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            71 101  75  97  72  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  94  72  92  74  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          74  85  75  83  75  /  30  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           70  99  71  94  71  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        70  94  73  90  74  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       73  85  75  84  75  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...AVIATION