Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY...SO KEPT MENTION AT
PROB30 AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS STORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY...AND KEPT
PREVAILING TSRA AT ALI/CRP/VCT DURING THIS TIME (PROB30 REMAINING
OVER LRD). VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING WITH
BR AND CONVECTION AROUND TERMINALS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  80  73  81  70  /  50  70  70  60  20
VICTORIA          70  79  70  80  68  /  70  90  80  60  20
LAREDO            73  85  70  87  69  /  40  70  40  20  20
ALICE             72  82  71  84  70  /  50  80  60  50  20
ROCKPORT          72  79  74  82  70  /  50  60  70  60  20
COTULLA           68  81  67  85  68  /  60  80  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        73  83  72  83  70  /  40  70  60  60  20
NAVY CORPUS       73  79  74  81  72  /  40  60  70  60  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O\CONNOR.

&&

LK/84...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

TXZ229>234-239>247-181715-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY UNTIL 1 PM
MONDAY.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NUECES...KLEBERG...SAN
PATRICIO AND ARANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO BRUSH COUNTRY TO
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTH TEXAS
IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE PERSISTENT AND SLOW MOVING
STORMS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST MONDAY ALONG GULF FACING
BEACHES.

NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
PRIMARILY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...ALTHOUGH A REQUEST FOR
SPOTTER REPORTS IS MORE LIKELY IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-181715-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O\CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE BAYS FROM
NOON THROUGH 4 PM.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
PRIMARILY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...ALTHOUGH A REQUEST FOR
SPOTTER REPORTS IS MORE LIKELY IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
215 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

TXZ230-231-172000-
MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-
215 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MCMULLEN AND WEST
CENTRAL LIVE OAK COUNTIES...

AT 214 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIMMONS...OR 9
MILES SOUTH OF CHOKE CANYON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHOKE CANYON...CROWTHER...SIMMONS AND CALLIHAM.

LAT...LON 2862 9834 2861 9833 2862 9833 2857 9813
      2828 9827 2832 9846 2864 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 193DEG 11KT 2838 9835

HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
304 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

TXZ230-231-172045-
MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-
304 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MCMULLEN AND WEST
CENTRAL LIVE OAK COUNTIES...

AT 303 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
SIMMONS...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHOKE CANYON...MOVING NORTH AT 30
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHOKE CANYON...CROWTHER...CALLIHAM...WHITSETT AND SIMMONS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2828 9829 2828 9849 2864 9854 2864 9834
      2861 9833 2867 9826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 178DEG 25KT 2837 9840

HEAVENER