Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

287 
WGUS74 KCRP 190140
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
840 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

TXC479-190330-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160319T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEBB TX-
840 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...

AT 839 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA.  FLASH
FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE
WEAKENED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY
RADAR. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LAREDO...BOTINES...RANCHOS PENITAS WEST...DOCTORS HOSPITAL OF LAREDO...
TEXAS A&M INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...ORVIL...UNITEC INDUSTRIAL PARK...
COLUMBIA BRIDGE AND LAREDO COUNTRY CLUB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS
WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2756 9951 2761 9955 2760 9959 2761 9958
      2764 9960 2764 9963 2763 9964 2764 9967
      2765 9966 2767 9969 2765 9970 2766 9971
      2772 9976 2773 9979 2782 9979 2784 9936
      2757 9941

$$

GW

874 
WGUS74 KCRP 190217
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
917 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

TXC479-190226-
/O.CAN.KCRP.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160319T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEBB TX-
917 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND NO FLOODING WAS REPORTED. FLOODING IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT IN THAT AREA...BUT FLOODING IS
PROBABLY OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH IN NORTHERN WEBB COUNTY. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 2756 9951 2761 9955 2760 9959 2761 9958
      2764 9960 2764 9963 2763 9964 2764 9967
      2765 9966 2767 9969 2765 9970 2766 9971
      2772 9976 2773 9979 2782 9979 2784 9936
      2757 9941

$$

GW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BASE CONVECTION FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE HRRR
(WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH EACH RUN) AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 03Z
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 07Z. MAY MAKE SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES (MAINLY FOR FORECAST WITHIN THE FIRST SIX
HOURS)...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THUS...WILL HAVE VCTS IN KLRD TO
START...AND PUT VCTS FARTHER EAST BY 02Z/03Z (MAY ADJUST LAST
MINUTE BY AN HOUR OR SO). WILL HAVE TEMPO THUNDER WITH SUSTAINED
30 KTS AND GUSTS 40KTS STARTING 00Z/01Z AT KLRD...THEN 02Z-04Z
OTHER TERMINALS...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
04Z/05Z AND 07Z/08Z FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MORE STRATIFORM THUNDER IN THE TERMINALS (MAINLY EASTERN) AFTER
FROPA THROUGH ABOUT 11Z...AND HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL THUNDER
EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL END THUNDER EASTERN TERMINALS BY
11Z...WITH A MENTION OF (PROB30) A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS KCRP
AFTER 11Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH FROPA...MAINTAINING THEIR GUSTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON THEN TAPERING OFF LATE (BUT STILL
SUSTAINED 11 KNOTS). CONCERNING CIGS...AM EXPECTING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS BEFORE FROPA...THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THEY IMPROVE AOA 16Z (SEE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FOR DETAILS). COULD HAVE IFR OR LOWER CIGS
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. ENOUGH SAID...WANTED TO GET THIS
OUT WHILE I HAD THE TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OVER MEXICO. HI-RES
MODELS MARCH THIS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DECENT SHEAR WILL LEAD TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE PRIMARY HAZARDS. A
FEW VERY LARGE HAIL REPORTS (2 INCH OR GREATER) COULD OCCUR OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WOULD ADVANCE
EASTWARD AS THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX. LATEST RUNS OF
HI RES GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND 3 AM. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR AND
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
WEBB COUNTY MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS DRIER FILTERS INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MORE QUICKLY...LOWS
MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.

MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A GALE WATCH OR
WARNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 4 AM ON
SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING (FOR NOW).

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD RELATIVELY
QUIET COMPARED TO SHORT TERM. WE START OFF WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
MORNING SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
THROUGH TEXAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY...BUT SUNNY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN NORTH TEXAS...COULD HAVE ENOUGH OF AN
INFLUENCE IN SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE
BEST CHANCE BEING NORTHEAST. GFS DEFINITELY THE WETTER MODEL WITH
THE ECMWF NOT SHOWING MUCH. WITH PWATS WELL OVER AN INCH BY THIS
TIME AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT NOT TOO WARM...FEEL COMFORTABLE
INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  64  49  67  50  /  70  30  10  10   0
VICTORIA          54  64  43  65  42  /  70  20  10   0   0
LAREDO            57  60  49  65  48  /  70  10  10  10   0
ALICE             55  64  47  67  46  /  70  20  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          57  65  53  65  55  /  70  30  10  10   0
COTULLA           54  62  47  66  45  /  70  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        58  65  48  67  47  /  70  20  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       60  65  55  65  56  /  70  30  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

GW/86...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

TXZ229>234-239>247-191200-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
405 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-191200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
405 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLY LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS
FROM 5 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GW/WC/LK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
659 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

TXZ239-190045-
WEBB-
659 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...

AT 659 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TEXAS A&M
INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...OR 8 MILES EAST OF LAREDO. THE STORM IS
EAST AROUND 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAREDO...BOTINES...RANCHOS PENITAS WEST...CALLAGHAN...LAREDO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...RANCHITOS LAS LOMAS...DOCTORS HOSPITAL OF
LAREDO...TEXAS A&M INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...ORVIL...UNITEC INDUSTRIAL
PARK AND LAREDO COUNTRY CLUB.

LAT...LON 2757 9951 2758 9953 2761 9954 2761 9956
      2760 9958 2761 9958 2764 9960 2764 9963
      2763 9962 2763 9966 2784 9968 2793 9930
      2762 9913 2753 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 180DEG 0KT 2758 9935

GW