Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
817 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SVR WATCH NUMBER 40 UNTIL NOON.
ALSO...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS BEE...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES. UPPER JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST...THE LATTER DOING SO BY NOON (HENCE THE WATCH TIL NOON).
UPDATES ARE OUT. SCA IS ON-GOING AND LOOKS OK FOR NOW (WILL LOOK
AT IT A BIT MORE BUT HAVE BIGGER FISH TO FRY FOR NOW).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER
LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SHRA REMARKS FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS YET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. STORMS HAVE BEHAVED THUS FAR AND CURRENT THINKING
KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM. UPPER LOW BACK TO THE WEST WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE
SFC...TROUGH WILL HUG THE COASTLINE TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OR SO AND WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. SOME MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL HAIL MAY
EXIST ON THURSDAY AS COLD CORE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

LASTLY...A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST TODAY ALONG AREA
BEACHES AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMBINE WITH ELEVATED SWELL
HEIGHTS.

MARINE...GUSTS DID NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF
WATERS SO HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING. HAVE REPLACED THE GALE
WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL FINALLY START TO KICK OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND WILL TRACK ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE THE
LOW GETS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY. HAVE JUST SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS LINGERING FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING WEST BY TUES/WED. MIN POSITION OF UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE DETAILS OF WIND/TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY MATCHING UP WELL
AT THIS POINT. IN GENERAL THOUGH...EXPECT COOLER MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS START THE PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  61  74  59  73  /  90  70  50  40  30
VICTORIA          75  62  74  55  73  /  90  80  50  40  40
LAREDO            77  57  73  55  71  /  50  40  70  40  30
ALICE             79  60  75  55  73  /  70  60  60  40  30
ROCKPORT          75  63  71  62  71  /  90  80  40  30  30
COTULLA           76  58  70  54  71  /  60  40  70  50  40
KINGSVILLE        79  60  76  56  74  /  80  60  50  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  74  62  72  /  90  70  40  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

GW/86...SHORT TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1003 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

TXZ229>234-239>247-101615-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1003 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG GULF FACING
BEACHES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 12 PM TODAY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL TO
LARGE HAIL. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINS TRACKING OVER
SATURATED SOILS WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THURSDAY ALONG GULF
FACING BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-101615-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1003 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
929 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE WOODSBORO         28.18N 97.30W
03/09/2016                   REFUGIO            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REFUGIO LAW ENFORECMENT REPORTED WIND DAMAGE TO A BARN IN
            THE BONNIE VIEW AREA. RANCHER ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60 TO 70
            MPH.

&&

JMETZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
940 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

TXZ245-246-091615-
REFUGIO-ARANSAS-
940 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL ARANSAS AND
EASTERN REFUGIO COUNTIES...

AT 940 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HOLIDAY BEACH...
OR 8 MILES NORTH OF ROCKPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKPORT...LAMAR...TIVOLI...HOLIDAY BEACH AND COPANO VILLAGE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR
SOUTH TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2806 9695 2809 9715 2856 9711 2853 9709
      2854 9708 2855 9706 2855 9705 2853 9704
      2854 9703 2852 9702 2850 9699 2851 9697
      2849 9691 2851 9691 2851 9689 2846 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 1540Z 189DEG 39KT 2816 9704

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
945 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 AM     FLOOD            KINGSVILLE              27.51N 97.86W
03/09/2016                   KLEBERG            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. WATER NOT CROSSING THE ROAD
            YET.

&&

GWILK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1001 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E KINGSVILLE          27.50N 97.81W
03/09/2016  M4.24 INCH       KLEBERG            TX   ASOS

            RAINFALL TOTAL FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10AM. HEAVY RAIN
            CONTINUES AS OF WRITING.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1016 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GREGORY                 27.92N 97.29W
03/09/2016                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWNED/UPROOTED IN GREGORY

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1031 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE KINGSVILLE         27.47N 97.81W
03/09/2016                   KLEBERG            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KLEBERG COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLOODING ON
            COUNTY ROAD 1070 JUST SOUTH OF COUNTY ROAD 2140.

&&

JMETZ