Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
946 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will drop southeast across the snowbelt
early tonight. High pressure will move up the ohio valley thursday
night. Low pressure will come out of oklahoma friday night and move
northeast near toledo late saturday and into eastern canada by
sunday pulling another arctic cold front across the area. High
pressure will shift east over the region by monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Update...Upgraded Erie lakeshore...Ashtabula and Lake counties to
a lake effect warning. May not get heavy snow everywhere but the
impact of the snow which will be heavy at times...plus the wind
will be significant. May need to go with Cuyahoga at some point if
bands sink further.

Original...A trough of low pressure moving se thru the snowbelt
will help bring better moisture se into the area and shift lower
level winds from sw to west bringing lake effect bands of snow
back into the snowbelt. A mix of lake effect warnings and
advisories will be in place for the lake effect snow. Winds
gusting 30 to 35 mph...especially near the lakeshore will produce
considerable blowing and drifting of the snow.

The biggest issue for the rest of the cwa will be wind chill
readings that are expected to drop down around or a little below
minus 10 degrees tonight then continue fairly steady through
thursday night. A wind chill advisory will be in effect for the
dangerous wind chills thru thu night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The favorable lake effect conditions will taper down thu night into
fri morning with total accumulation for the event generally expected
to range from 6 to 14 inches across the core part of the snowbelt.
The two areas most likely to see the higher end accumulation will be
inland erie and northern crawford counties in pa and northern geauga
co and bordering areas in oh. Areas bordering the snowbelt could see
up to an inch of accumulation locally with no accumulation expected
for areas further to the south and west.

The dangerous wind chills thu and thu night are addressed in the
discussion above.

High pressure moves across oh into pa late thu night into fri
causing winds to back to the south fri allowing temps to start to
moderate somewhat after highs only about 9 to 15 on thu to mostly 15
to 20 on fri.

Moisture also starts to return by late in the day fri with the warm
front acting as a focus for snow to develop eastward, possibly
spreading into the western counties by the end of the day. The snow
will spread over the cwa fri night...however warmer air rapidly
pushing north will start to change the snow to a mixture of wintry
precipitation in the south toward the end of the night. The question
for fzra is whether temps will rise to get above freezing by the
time the warmer temps aloft no longer are cold enough for snow.

The transition from snow and wintry precip from south to north will
continue thru midday sat with the precip for sat afternoon expected
to mostly just be rain. Once the low moves north of lake erie sat
night the precip will change back to snow from west to east while
the precip also taper off at about the same time so not a lot of
accumulation is expected.

Temps by late sat afternoon should be 40 or higher for a good part
of the cwa. Lows by the end of sat night likely will range from
around 20 in the far nw to the upper 20s in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will likely be east of the area on Sunday with snow
showers lingering into the afternoon. The greatest coverage in snow
showers will be across the Snowbelt. These snow showers may linger
into Monday afternoon before high pressure finally takes control of
the entire region. This large area of high pressure, which has a
pressure of 1040+ mb, will then dominate the weather across the
region into the middle of the week.

Temperatures will be below seasonal averages through the long term.
Lows for inland locations under the 1040+mb high will be able to dip
to around zero Sunday night and Monday night if skies clear as
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Lake effect snow showers currently over Lake Erie will work their
way on shore later this evening, first near KERI and then
eventually near or just east of KCLE later tonight.

Snow showers with the front will assist in bringing ceilings down
to mvfr levels. It will be slower to occur across inland sites
from KFDY to KMFD. Lake effect snow showers will increase in
coverage and intensity after midnight and wobble across the
snowbelt. Have attempted to time the heavier bands across the
sites in the snowbelt. Expect IFR conditions in the bands of
heavier snow.

Winds will shift to the west and increase over the next couple of
hours. Gusts 25 to a little over 30 knots will be possible.

OUTLOOK...Non VFR lingers into Friday in the Snowbelt due to snow
showers then widespread non VFR spreads over the region Friday
night and continues until shifting back into just the Snowbelt by
late Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be on the increase tonight. Greatest jump in the winds
will be in the wake of a strong cold front that will cross the area
this evening. Expect gales to develop during the evening and
continue into Thursday evening. Since we have westerly gales the
water levels across the Western Basin will likely drop below
critical levels. Current forecasts from GLERL take the water level
about 15 inches below the critical level. As winds decrease Thursday
evening water levels should stabilize. Winds will then gradually
shift to the southwest on Friday then a southerly direction on
Saturday as the next storm system moves toward the region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for OHZ012>014-
     089.
     Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for OHZ011.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for OHZ003-006>010-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ061-142>149-
     162>169.
     Low Water Advisory until 5 PM EST Thursday for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/TK
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...Mullen

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