Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
300 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the area tonight. A large area of
high pressure will build northeast into the Great Lakes region by
Sunday afternoon.  The high will then build east to the New England
states by Monday afternoon where it will become nearly stationary
through Tuesday.  A warm front will lift northeast across the area
by Tuesday morning followed by another cold front Wednesday
morning.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cold front continues to push east toward the area with a line of
showers developing.  Some thunderstorm activity has already
developed along the southern end of the line.  Current thinking is
that the best chance for thunderstorms that could become severe will
occur over the eastern half of our forecast area this evening where
the best heating has taken place.  Dewpoint temperatures have
climbed into the lower 70s.  Air temperatures are already in the
middle to upper 80s east half and lower 80s in the west half. As the
front pushes east across the area later tonight, expecting showers
and thunderstorms to remain ahead of the frontal boundary with a
fairly sharp cutoff in the end of the precipitation from west to
east. As cold air advection takes place, drier air will move into
the area overnight.  I think there is a limited chance for a few
showers over the northeast lakeshore counties but will keep it a
slight to minimal chance by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fairly strong upper level trough is progged to swing quickly east
and out of the area tonight making way for broad upper level ridge
to push east over the area Sunday. This will force the cold front at
the surface to move well east of the area overnight allowing high
pressure to build east across the area.  Much cooler and drier air
will push into the local forecast area Sunday and will continue to
do so through Monday.

Another storm system will push east across the northern Great Lakes
on Tuesday allowing warm air advection to resume across the forecast
area. A trailing cold front will then approach the area Tuesday
night and bring another small threat of showers and thunderstorms to
the area.

Temperatures will drop to cool levels over the next couple days in
the cold air advection but will then recover nicely by Tuesday in
the warm sector ahead of the low pressure system.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will move across the area on Wednesday with a round of
showers and thunderstorms possible. By Wednesday evening high
pressure will be in control of the region. This area of high
pressure will then remain in control into at least Friday as the
next storm system attempts to move into the upper Great Lakes.

Wednesday and Thursday will be cool with highs in the lower 70s.
Warmer Friday with highs back into the middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Cold front getting very close to western OH as of 1730z. Already
seeing showers and thunderstorms developing along the boundary
with the strongest convection currently located near and south of
Indianapolis. Cloud cover this morning has limited the surface
heating across NW OH so the intensification of the line in this
area seems like it will be minimal. We continue to monitor a 60
knot 5H jet moving across Indiana and another piece of energy over
Missouri. As this energy moves eastward and catches the frontal
boundary stronger storms should develop. Current thinking is that
the strongest storms will be located near and south of a KHZY to
KMFD to Columbus line. Best timing of the thunderstorms is
between 20z and 00z. MVFR, brief IFR, possible with any of the
thunderstorms. If a stronger line develops we will amend the TAF'S
to add the stronger wind gusts.

Cold front passes this evening with the gusty Southwest winds
becoming west. Winds shift to the northwest overnight or early
Sunday morning and decrease. Any remaining MVFR ceilings in the
wake of the front should lift by mid/late Sunday morning,
especially across NE OH and NW PA.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Wednesday in morning fog and then
thunderstorm chances in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds 15 to near 25 knots are producing 3 to 4 foot
waves across a decent portion of the lake this afternoon. The
largest waves have been located across the eastern half of the lake
especially around Erie. Winds will likely increase slightly as the
front approaches this evening before shifting to the west and
northwest. Waves will build the most with the wind shift and cold
advection in the wake of the front. Will leave the small craft
advisory and beach hazards statement in their current configuration.
Although we are slightly concerned that waves may stay up slightly
longer than the current forecast. Later shifts will monitor this.

High pressure arrives by Sunday afternoon with winds decreasing.
This area of high pressure will shift quickly eastward on Monday
allowing the next cold front to move into the central Great Lakes on
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for OHZ012-089.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ003-007-
     009>011.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>146.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Mullen

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

OHZ006-008-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-PAZ002-003-110800-
WOOD-SANDUSKY-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-
SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-
STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-SOUTHERN ERIE-
350 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-110800-
LAKE-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
350 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.
 THROUGH TONIGHT
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

OHZ003-007-009>011-110800-
LUCAS-OTTAWA-ERIE-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
350 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THROUGH TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-110800-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
350 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
328 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

OHZ018-019-028-029-102015-
RICHLAND OH-HURON OH-SENECA OH-CRAWFORD OH-
328 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN HURON...NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN SENECA
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 327 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CHATFIELD...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF BUCYRUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUCYRUS...SHELBY...WILLARD...PLYMOUTH...NEW WASHINGTON...
CHATFIELD...GREENWICH...ATTICA...BENTON...SHILOH...NORTH
FAIRFIELD...TIRO AND SULPHER SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4079 8305 4090 8312 4098 8311 4121 8260
      4096 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 244DEG 25KT 4091 8302

MULLEN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
529 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

OHZ020>022-030>032-038-047-102230-
KNOX-SUMMIT-ASHLAND-PORTAGE-WAYNE-HOLMES-STARK-MEDINA-
529 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SUMMIT...HOLMES...
PORTAGE...SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA...WAYNE...KNOX...STARK AND SOUTHEASTERN
ASHLAND COUNTIES...

AT 528 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TWINSBURG TO NEAR MOUNT VERNONN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AKRON...CANTON...WOOSTER...MOUNT VERNON...RAVENNA...MILLERSBURG...
CUYAHOGA FALLS...MASSILLON...KENT...BARBERTON...GREEN...SOLON...
ALLIANCE...HUDSON...WADSWORTH...TWINSBURG...TALLMADGE... NORTH
CANTON...STREETSBORO AND MACEDONIA.

LAT...LON 4027 8262 4135 8149 4135 8100 4099 8100
      4099 8109 4073 8109 4072 8124 4065 8124
      4066 8146 4063 8167 4044 8167 4045 8218
      4031 8219 4026 8225 4024 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 239DEG 41KT 4133 8147 4020 8264

OUDEMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
536 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

OHZ013-014-023-102200-
TRUMBULL-ASHTABULA INLAND-GEAUGA-
536 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TRUMBULL...
ASHTABULA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEAUGA COUNTIES...

AT 534 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTH OF CONNEAUT TO 7 MILES EAST OF
CHARDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN SEVERE AS IT MOVED ACROSS CUYAHOGA AND LAKE COUNTIES. A
WARNING MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ERIE...ASHTABULA...CONNEAUT...JEFFERSON...CORTLAND...GENEVA...
MIDDLEFIELD...KINSMAN...NORTH BLOOMFIELD...ORWELL...BURTON...
ANDOVER...WEST FARMINGTON...BRISTOLVILLE...PARKMAN...HUNTSBURG...
CLARIDON...LAKE CITY...MECCA AND AUSTINBURG.

LAT...LON 4214 8008 4193 8050 4189 8052 4134 8052
      4135 8132 4180 8092 4185 8077 4190 8080
      4185 8075 4193 8052 4197 8056 4189 8085
      4191 8083 4211 8021 4219 8012 4221 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 255DEG 29KT 4217 8055 4157 8106

OUDEMAN