Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Cleveland, OH

744 
WHUS71 KCLE 111949
MWWCLE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

LEZ149-112300-
/O.EXT.KCLE.SC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-160611T2300Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
349 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO
  20 KNOTS.

* WAVES/SEAS...WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET
  THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WAVES OF 4 FEET OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED OR WIND SPEEDS REACH 21 TO 33 KNOTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD STAY IN PORT
DURING THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
936 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania will be hot and humid for
Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move south across the
area on Saturday Night. High pressure will build in behind the
cold front for Sunday and Monday. A trough of low pressure will
then attempt to move into the area late on Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No significant changes to this forecast. 12Z DTX sounding shows
a significant cap and a dry sounding. Convective temperature is
99 degrees. These factors will significantly limit thunderstorm
develop particularly early this afternoon. Chances for storms may
improve later this evening as the front approaches. Current high
temperatures appear to be on track.

Original Near Term Discussion...
Fairly difficult forecast to put together for Saturday. The warm
front that moved through the area on Friday has ushered in a warm,
moist, muggy air mass. Temperatures at 4am this morning remain in
the mid to upper 70s and dew points are in the mid 60s, more
characteristic of Coastal Carolina or the Gulf Coast and not
northern Ohio/northwest Pennsylvania. As the MCS that rolled
through Wisconsin and Michigan late on Friday moves to our
northeast into Canada and New York, the weather should start
fairly dry for the area on Saturday. The only exception could be
far NE OH/NW PA, where some convective debris from this MCS could
leave behind a shower or two and some cloud cover. Elsewhere,
daytime heating will allow for temperatures to soar into the low
to mid 90s for most areas, as cloud cover will not be an issue.
Temperatures could approach record highs as all records sit in the
90s.

The forecasting concerns for the day are the precipitation
chances and severe weather threat. The air mass in place is
certainly ripe for thunderstorm development and severe storms at
that. Forecast soundings across the CWA show afternoon CAPE values
of 2000-3000 J/kg, DCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, surface to 3km
lapse rates greater than 8C/km, dry air aloft, and 0-6km bulk
shear values greater than 20 knots, which are all indicative of
severe thunderstorms with a damaging wind and hail threat.
However...there are major concerns with a forcing mechanism to
initiate thunderstorms with a large cap in place in the low
levels, which would prohibit the development of any convection at
all.

For more diurnally driven storms to develop in this air mass,
there is a need for more moisture in the low levels, even in such
a muggy environment. Winds look to stay breezy in the 15 to 20
knot range from the west and could keep things well mixed,
preventing dew points from getting any higher than the mid to
upper 60s. However, if the area can see temperature/dew point
spreads of say 90/72 on Saturday, diurnally driven convection may
occur in this environment. The other option would be some sort of
boundary to initiate convection. A cold front will eventually make
its way across the area late Saturday into the early part of
Sunday and will likely bring some sort of area of elevated showers
and storms as the area dries out and cools off behind the front.
However, could the remnant outflow from Friday's MCS or a pre-
frontal trough move through the area and provide enough lift to
get convection to form Saturday afternoon/evening? It's certainly
possible, but not probable. More typical/certain sources of lift
seem to be off to our east with favorable jet dynamics or west
with the more hearty boundary left behind from Friday's MCS.

Given all of the above... went with a slight chance pop in the
early afternoon, increasing to a chance pop later in the day. SPC
has our area outlined in a Marginal Risk for damaging wind gusts
and severe hail, except for Trumbull and Mahoning Counties that
are in a Slight Risk for the same severe threat. But, Saturday
feels like a "boom or bust" day depending on whether the cap can
be broken.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weather across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania looks
to be quiet on Sunday as high pressure builds in behind the cold
front. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface should
squash any precipitation chances. However, northerly flow will
allow for cooler air to settle in and temperatures could be a
couple degrees below climatology for mid-June with only low to mid
70s for highs on Sunday. For Sunday night, northerly flow
continues and relatively clear skies may allow for temperatures to
really drop into the low 50s and even upper 40s in northwest
Pennsylvania, which would be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

High pressure still looks to be in place for Monday, which will
continue to keep things relatively quiet. Winds will shift around
to the west/southwest in the low levels, allowing for
temperatures to return to average, but northwest flow remains
aloft on the back side of a large trough. Models are hinting at a
piece of energy to ripple through the trough aloft and a trough of
low pressure to move in late on Monday, so brought in a chance of
precipitation for Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will set up north of the lake through mid-week with
northwesterly flow aloft. Enough moisture will remain across our
southern counties to keep a low pop going through Wednesday. An area
of low pressure will move from the plains towards the upper midwest
on Wednesday then slide southeast towards the Ohio valley on
Thursday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will expand northward
on Thursday as a warm front tries to lift north to central Ohio.
Temperatures will be near seasonal norms, except in the northeast
near Lake Erie where the flow off the lake will keep conditions
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Timing and potential for thunderstorms will be the challenge for the
afternoon and evening hours. Model soundings depict a capping
inversion which is expected to limit the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Lingering outflow boundaries from convection
overnight may lead to some convective development this afternoon
but it will be hard to determine when or where this will occur. Left
a VCTS in the southern terminals where it seems there might be a
slightly better chances of eroding the cap...followed by a VCTS at
CLE/ERI this evening as the front arrives from the north. Any
thunderstorms that develop today could produce gusty winds to 40+
knots and brief heavy rainfall.

West southwest winds will be breezy this afternoon with most
locations gusting to 20-25 knots. A cold front will move south
across the area tonight with a wind shift to the north between 04-
08Z.

Outlook...Non vfr possible in the west Tues and Wed in scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds will increase to 15-20 knots on Lake Erie this
morning as a trough associated with a warm front passes north of the
lake. The increased flow will lead to waves building to 2 to 5 feet
on the east end of the lake today. Given the flow will be parallel
to the shoreline and the stronger winds will only last a few hours
have decided to hold off on a small craft advisory. However
conditions will be choppy on the east end of the lake with a
moderate risk of rip currents.

A cold front will move south across the lake tonight with winds
shifting to the north and waves in the nearshore waters building to
2 to 4 feet late tonight into Sunday. High pressure will build over
the Central Great Lakes on Monday then set up north of the lakes
through mid-week. This will lead to a prolonged period of northeast
to easterly flow. Winds are generally expected to be 15 knots or
less with waves peaking in the 2 to 4 foot range on as a warm front
approaches from the south by Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Garnet
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
521 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-120930-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
521 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.