Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Cleveland, OH

833 
WWUS51 KCLE 140141
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
941 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

OHC093-140200-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-160714T0200Z/
LORAIN OH-
941 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL LORAIN COUNTY...

AT 941 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LORAIN TO GRAFTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LORAIN...ELYRIA...STRONGSVILLE...NORTH RIDGEVILLE...AVON LAKE...
GRAFTON...AVON...BAY VILLAGE...SHEFFIELD LAKE...OLMSTED FALLS...
EATON...SHEFFIELD...LAGRANGE...PENFIELD AND EATON ESTATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4153 8192 4149 8190 4150 8197 4136 8197
      4135 8187 4128 8188 4127 8197 4120 8197
      4120 8207 4114 8208 4114 8217 4149 8219
      4154 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 217DEG 49KT 4150 8212 4127 8200 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JAMISON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
715 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the central and southern Appalachians will
drift south and weaken. Meanwhile...cold front will move
southeast toward the area Thursday. A trough of low pressure will
move southeast across the area Friday. High pressure will then
build east across the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Convection has developed upstream as expected this evening with
some warnings to our west. The best instability over the local
area will occur over the next few hours, as will our best chance
for severe storms. The bulk shear remains under 20kt, and though
this will increase overnight the instability will inversely
decline. A short wave, responsible for the convection over MO
today, will drift over the region tonight. With some elevated
instability there will be enough support for scattered showers and
thunderstorms overnight and into morning. A few storms will have
brief heavy rain (PW>1.6") and the potential for strong gusty
winds (high DCAPE). Looking at a muggy night as dew points linger
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Prev Discussion...
Have made minor changes for the overnight forecast and will keep
the trend of increasing pops into the early evening mainly in the
west with an expectation that scattered convection over Illinois
and Indiana will become more numerous as it spreads into Ohio.
This agrees with the reasoning from SPC. The wind shear is rather
weak(less than 30 knots) but there is enough CAPE and DCAPE to
support downburst formation in some of the stronger cells. Humid
conditions will persist with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
a cold front is expected to sag into the region during the
afternoon and make rather slow progress to the southeast. Drying
aloft is also expected to move into the region and this will allow
some instability to form along with scattered convection. The
timing and location is rather uncertain. The NAM appears to be
suffering from rather intense convective feedback again and has
been discounted. In any event...we expect scattered convection
mainly during max diurnal heating time with just a lingering
chance Thursday evening in the eastern counties.

Drier and cool air will filter in later Thursday night and Friday.
A surface trough will cross the area on Friday and then high
pressure will build over the region on Saturday. 850 mb
temperatures will cool to near 12C and produce seasonal
temperatures on Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Relatively zonal and quick flow will bring system across the Great
Lakes Sunday night into Monday. Trailing cold front looks to impact
the local area on Monday with scattered showers/thunderstorms.
Beyond Monday the ridge strengthens to our west and by mid week we
may be on the eastern fringes of the the heat again. Will go with
seasonal temps Monday and Tuesday and begin to bring them up for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Scattered TSRA across NW OH will gradually diminish this evening
with the loss of daytime heating and moving into a less sheared
environment. Storms moving across Illinois should also slowly
diminish. Expect scattered showers with isolated TSRA into NW OH
toward midnight local...then will move across forecast area
overnight. Will continue to diminish as they move east so doubts
as to how far east actually make it.

More scattered TSRA tomorrow afternoon ahead of cold front that
will move across the forecast area tomorrow. Location will depend
on the timing of the front. For now just went VCTS across the
southern taf sites tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...Areas of non-VFR possible Thursday in showers and
thunderstorms. Non-VFR possible across ne OH/nw PA Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A few rounds of showers/thunderstorms possible between this evening
through Friday as system up across the midwest does not cross the
lake until Friday. The south-southwest flow between 10 and 20 knots
will make the waters just offshore choppy. The east end may be
getting close to marginal small craft advisory conditions
Thursday/Thursday night. A better chance may come on Friday as the
winds shift more westerly for areas east of Cleveland. High pressure
builds across the lake for Saturday and Sunday. The next front will
be crossing the Great Lakes on Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...Jamison/LaPlante
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Oudeman

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
116 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-141730-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-
ASHLAND-MARION-MORROW-KNOX-
116 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089-PAZ001>003-
141730-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WAYNE-
STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD-
116 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-140030-
OTTAWA-HANCOCK-MARION-WYANDOT-LUCAS-WOOD-SANDUSKY-SENECA-CRAWFORD-
753 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MARION...SANDUSKY...WYANDOT...
OTTAWA...WOOD...LUCAS...HANCOCK...CRAWFORD AND SENECA COUNTIES...

AT 750 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER
FINDLAY...TIFFIN...PROSPECT...AND NEAR BOWLING GREEN MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL OF TWO INCHES PER
HOUR COULD CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MINOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH 900 PM. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

LAT...LON 4116 8380 4172 8387 4173 8346 4162 8341
      4150 8341 4146 8334 4150 8308 4073 8272
      4071 8278 4071 8285 4068 8286 4064 8296
      4043 8303 4048 8325 4051 8325 4051 8342
      4068 8342 4071 8348 4082 8351 4082 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 221DEG 24KT 4113 8364

JAMISON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
835 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

OHZ007>009-018-019-028>030-036-037-047-140100-
RICHLAND-ERIE-OTTAWA-MORROW-KNOX-ASHLAND-MARION-HURON-SANDUSKY-
SENECA-CRAWFORD-
835 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RICHLAND...HURON...ERIE...
MORROW...MARION...SANDUSKY...OTTAWA...KNOX...CRAWFORD...WESTERN
ASHLAND AND SENECA COUNTIES...

AT 830 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THERE AREA WERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS WERE NEAR MOUNT
GILEAD...RICHLAND...FREMONT...AND OAK HARBOR MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND
35 MPH. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4027 8274 4051 8342 4069 8342 4070 8311
      4099 8311 4100 8342 4162 8341 4151 8296
      4172 8281 4162 8267 4150 8271 4145 8304
      4143 8301 4143 8235 4106 8224 4082 8242
      4056 8234 4057 8218 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 208DEG 53KT 4066 8274

JAMISON