Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
411 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly drier high pressure will briefly build in from the
north tonight. Atlantic high pressure will rebuild over the
weekend while an inland trough prevails.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The combination of the sea breeze and a shortwave is generating
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with the highest
coverage and the strongest storms across the Charleston Tri-county
area. SPC mesoscale analysis indicates SBCAPEs approaching 4,000
J/kg across southeast GA and PWATs ranging from 1.75-2". Even with
all of this energy and moisture in that part of the forecast area,
storms have remained limited to the above mentioned area. This is
probably due to the shortwave reaching this area first and
boundary interaction allowing these storms to persist and new ones
to generate. Light low and mid level winds are causing slow storm
motions, which could lead to locally heavy rainfall and the
potential for localized flooding. There are large variation in
DCAPEs across our area. The highest amounts are 1,200 J/kg across
parts of the Charleston Tri-county and the southernmost counties
in our forecast area. The lowest amounts are along the SC/GA
border with around 600 J/kg. This is probably resulting from cloud
cover that persisted in those locations most of the day, which
kept temperatures and instability lower. Regardless, damaging wind
gusts are the main hazard with severe thunderstorms into the early
evening. Small hail is also possible in the strongest storms.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish as the evening progresses,
resulting from drier conditions building into our area from the
north. Some showers could linger near the Altamaha River, but the
probabilities of this occuring are low. Models also hint that some
light/shallow fog is possible around daybreak, especially where
it rained. But skies also will need to clear out. It's too early
to know how this will play out, so we opted to not include this in
the current forecast. Lows will be in the mid 70s inland and
closer to 80 at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid/upper lvl ridge of high pressure will extend across the
southeastern United States this weekend, supporting a dry northerly
wind and considerably less shower/thunderstorm coverage. However,
given substantial sfc heating we can not rule out a few showers
and/or thunderstorms over inland areas of southeast Georgia Friday
and Saturday afternoon. An isolated shower and/or thunderstorm will
also be possible along a seabreeze. By Sunday, a slight chance of
showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible for most areas given
the vicinity of an inland sfc trough over the Midlands and a
slightly more active seabreeze. In general, afternoon highs will
peak in the low/mid 90s away on Friday and Saturday, then mid/upper
90s on Sunday. These temps along with sfc dewpts in the lower 70s
could support heat index values around 105 Saturday and especially
Sunday, but conditions should remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper ridge gradually breaks down and a more progressive
pattern develops in the long term period. Meanwhile Atlantic high
pressure maintains its control over the area. A more typical late
July pattern is expected though rain chances could be slightly
higher Tuesday into Wednesday due to a weak front approaching from
the north. Highs will generally be in the 90s with maximum heat
indices 105-108F across southeast GA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Showers and thunderstorms will continue through early
this evening. Radar trends indicate KCHS is likely to see brief
flight restrictions resulting from TSRA, possibly through about
21Z. Convection will end by late this evening. However, computer
models hint that MVFR is possible in fog that may develop before
daybreak. This will be highly dependent on rainfall in the area
and clearing skies. Given the variations in all of these factors,
we opted to not include mention of this in the current TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible
with showers/thunderstorms, mainly Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected at both CHS and SAV terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...A weak pressure gradient across the waters will lead to
southeast winds generally 10 kt or less. Seas will range from 2-3
ft. Some 4 footers are possible in AMZ374 beyond 40 nm.

Friday through Tuesday: Atlantic high pressure will dominate the
waters this weekend into early next week while a sfc trough develops
inland. The setup will favor a southerly wind between 10-15 kt over
most waters. Occasional surges will occur up to 15-20 kt, primarily
along the coast each afternoon with a sea breeze circulation and
over nearshore Atlantic waters at night due to nocturnal jetting.
Seas will range between 1-3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
333 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-221000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
333 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

SCZ050-211845-
CHARLESTON SC-
203 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 202 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GARRIS LANDING...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MOUNT PLEASANT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH AND UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL.

  IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. MINOR HAIL DAMAGE TO PLANTS...
           TREES AND CROPS IS POSSIBLE. DAMAGE TO WINDSHIELDS IS
           UNLIKELY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MOUNT PLEASANT...ISLE OF PALMS...SULLIVAN'S ISLAND...AWENDAW...BULL
ISLAND...GARRIS LANDING...MOUNT PLEASANT REGIONAL AIRPORT AND MOUNT
PLEASANT TOWNE CENTRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BEACHES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS DURING THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE
LIGHTNING WILL USUALLY STRIKE THE TALLEST OBJECT IN THE VICINITY.
MOVE OFF BEACHES AND GET IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR AUTOMOBILE
IMMEDIATELY. MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED BY LIGHTNING ON BEACHES IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

REPORT DAMAGE DIRECTLY TO THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-888-383-2024 WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. YOU CAN ALSO EMAIL YOUR
REPORT TO NWS.CHARLESTONSC@NOAA.GOV.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 7955 3274 7982 3275 7988 3292 7982
      3295 7977 3299 7977 3302 7973 3299 7952
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 005DEG 6KT 3295 7971

DPB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
258 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

SCZ043-044-211945-
DORCHESTER SC-INLAND COLLETON SC-
258 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER AND
COLLETON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DORCHESTER...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GIVHANS
FERRY STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND
           EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. MINOR HAIL DAMAGE TO PLANTS...
           TREES AND CROPS IS POSSIBLE. DAMAGE TO WINDSHIELDS IS
           UNLIKELY. ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD CEASE. MOVE
           INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... SAINT
GEORGE...INDIAN FIELD...DORCHESTER...ST. GEORGE...HARLEYVILLE...
REEVESVILLE AND CANADYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 8047 3327 8045 3326 8043 3327 8039
      3326 8037 3321 8033 3294 8055 3320 8071
      3329 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 319DEG 7KT 3314 8043

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
308 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             WANDO                   32.93N  79.83W
07/21/2016  E0.70 INCH       BERKELEY           SC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TWITTER REPORT OF DIME SIZE HAIL IN WANDO

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600656

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE INDIAN FIELD      33.29N  80.51W
07/21/2016                   DORCHESTER         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SC STATE HWY PATROL REPORTS A TREE DOWN ACROSS THE
            ROADWAY NEAR THE INTERCHANGE OF I26 AND US HWY 15

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600657

CB

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