Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Through early next week, Atlantic high pressure will extend west
over the region, and a trough of low pressure will linger inland.
A cold front will advance into the Southeast around mid week. This
front should then stall and dissipate over or near the region as
high pressure builds from the north and shifts over the area late
week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this afternoon: As expected, convection has initiated along
the coast and focused up along the Charleston County region
specifically. The thinking is that now the convection in the tri-
county will gradually diminish through the afternoon and the focus
will turn to southeast Georgia where the best heating has taken
place. The severe threat is on the low side, but with plentiful
mesoscale boundaries floating around we could still see a couple
strong to marginally severe storms. DCAPE values are less than 800
J/kg, so it will likely take a wet microburst to cause damage. In
fact, the microburst composite from the SPC mesoanalysis page has
a bullseye across southeast Georgia, so that will bear watching.
Heavy rain is expected in some areas, with hourly rainfall rates
of 1-2 inches possible.

Tonight: Some lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible, though
with the building ridge from the west, the best chance will be over
the marine area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Atlantic surface high pressure to our east and an inland trough of
low pressure just to our west will persist through Wednesday. Aloft,
the region will remain under or close to a weak trough on the
eastern edge of the upper level ridge. The persistent nature of
these systems will result in only subtle day to day changes in
sensible weather, often driven by leftover convective boundaries,
the sea breeze during the day, the land breeze at night and the
interaction of convection with these boundaries. There will be
widely scattered to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. Due to high precipitable water values and likely
slow motion of thunderstorms, any training thunderstorms would be
capable of producing torrential rainfall and a risk for minor
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. In addition,
afternoon and evening CAPE values from 2500 to 3500 J/KG could
support brief/isolated strong to marginally severe pulse
thunderstorms possibly producing damaging wet microbursts; however,
organized/significant severe weather appears unlikely. As was the
case Saturday evening, some of the thunderstorms could produce
excessive to nearly continuous lightning. Those outside need to be
prepared to seek shelter should thunderstorms threaten.

High temperatures will depend on cloud cover and location, timing
and coverage of thunderstorms, but overall expect highs from the
lower to mid 90s inland to the mid to upper 80s at the beaches. It
will be mild and muggy at night with lows in the mid to upper 70s
inland to the lower 80s at the beaches. Heat index values will
likely reach 103 to 107 degrees each afternoon but at the present
time it looks like values will remain below the advisory threshold
level of 110 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weakening cold front is expected to push into the Southeast
during the beginning of this period as an upper level trough over
New England helps to erode the upper level ridge over the area a
bit. Then surface high pressure is expected to shift south into
the region by late in the week and into next weekend. Typical
widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected mainly each afternoon and evening. Highs will range from
the mid to upper 80s at and near the beaches to the lower to mid
90s inland. Expect lows mainly mid to upper 70s with near 80 at
the beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorms are currently impacting both terminals, though the
worst seems to have passed at KCHS. Will carry a lingering TSRA
there for another hour. At KSAV, there are storms in the vicinity
and this region is where the next round of storms should occur.
Have introduced a TEMPO for IFR visibility in TSRA through 20z.
Thereafter, thunderstorms are expected to push inland and then the
focus turns to the potential for fog late tonight. Have introduced
ground fog late with just MVFR visibilities. There is some
potential for fog to be more widespread than that, but confidence
is low.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR outside showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of showers and thunderstorms, expect southerly to
southwesterly winds to prevail through Wednesday. The winds will
be enhanced by the daily sea breeze and surging to some extent
each night, but still expect speeds to be 15 knots or less. Looks
like seas should mainly be in the 2 to 3 foot range. In typical
fashion for this time of year, thunderstorms will occasionally
produce locally hazardous conditions.

A cold front looks to push into the waters Wednesday night or
Thursday, possibly altering winds/seas over the waters. At the
present time, it appears the conditions will remain below small
craft advisory thresholds into the weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BSH/JRL
SHORT TERM...MTE
LONG TERM...MTE
AVIATION...BSH/MTE
MARINE...JRL/MTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
349 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-181145-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
349 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ118-119-171830-
INLAND CHATHAM GA-COASTAL CHATHAM GA-
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHATHAM COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

AT 201 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SAVANNAH HISTORIC DISTRICT...OR OVER
SAVANNAH...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH.

  IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
SAVANNAH...POOLER...I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE...GARDEN CITY...PORT
WENTWORTH... THUNDERBOLT...HUTCHINSON ISLAND AND WINDSOR FOREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

REPORT DAMAGE DIRECTLY TO THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-888-383-2024 WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. YOU CAN ALSO EMAIL YOUR
REPORT TO NWS.CHARLESTONSC@NOAA.GOV.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 8118 3207 8131 3215 8113 3214 8112
      3212 8112 3210 8109 3203 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 053DEG 6KT 3207 8111

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW SAVANNAH          32.06N  81.09W
07/17/2016                   CHATHAM            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON E 37TH
            ST...POSSIBLY ON POWERLINES. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600616

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
251 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S THUNDERBOLT         32.03N  81.05W
07/17/2016                   CHATHAM            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF ROBERTSON AVE AT FALLIGANT AVE. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600617

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
254 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E SAVANNAH            32.05N  81.06W
07/17/2016                   CHATHAM            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON E 37TH ST NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION WITH SKIDAWAY RD...POSSIBLY ON
            POWERLINES. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600616

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
306 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW SAVANNAH          32.05N  81.11W
07/17/2016                   CHATHAM            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG
            VICTORY DRIVE ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING...WITH SOME
            VEHICLES FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600618

JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ116-117-138>140-172015-
INLAND MCINTOSH GA-COASTAL BRYAN GA-INLAND LIBERTY GA-
INLAND BRYAN GA-COASTAL LIBERTY GA-
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LIBERTY...MCINTOSH
AND BRYAN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MCINTOSH TO
JONES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH.

  IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
JONES...MCINTOSH...RICEBORO...FLEMINGTON...SUNBURY...RETREAT...HALFMO
ON LANDING AND BELFAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3159 8151 3166 8152 3170 8149 3171 8153
      3187 8155 3184 8126 3182 8123 3175 8125
      3172 8117 3167 8114 3164 8125 3165 8128
      3163 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 237DEG 15KT 3187 8148 3165 8148