Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will prevail across the interior Carolinas through
tonight. A weak cold front will stall north of the area Sunday
into Monday, before gradually shifting northward and dissipating
during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Convection/thunderstorms: Radar has become much more active with
strong to isolated severe storms, mainly across the central and
eastern forecast area, within boundary left over from last night's
storms. Instability values continue to be very strong, with CAPES
3000-4000 J/Kg, Downdraft CAPES up to 1200 J/Kg and Mid level
lapse rates of over 7 deg/Km. Strongest instability is mainly
over the southern half of the area. Have upped pops to high end
chance where it is currently raining, with lower pops surrounding
to the north and south. Expect storms to begin to diminish after
sunset as the instability lowers a bit and atmosphere becomes
"worked over" by previous storms. Models indicating small chances
for storms most of the night, which goes against climatology.
However, there could be boundaries from any convection that fires
in the Midlands/inland areas that could re- fire isolated
convection. Thus, have kept slight chance pops much of the night,
but confidence not very high.

Temperatures: As alluded to in the previous discussion,
convection firing earlier than expected has altered the
temperature field across the area, basically keeping conditions
below Heat Advisory area most areas. Therefore, have cancelled the
Heat Advisory, but still expect areas to see 105 to 109 heat
indices, with isolated areas around 110, but not enough for an
advisory. Temperates will once again remain very warm tonight,
generally in the upper 70s to around 80. Areas that get convection
may see slightly cooler temperatures this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday through Tuesday: On Sunday morning, a cold front will be
descending south towards the area, maybe even dropping into the
far northern zones. The front is then expected to stall before
lifting north through the day and then eventually dissipating.
Monday into Tuesday, the forecast area will largely remain under
the influence of Atlantic high pressure. Meanwhile, the pattern
aloft will change very little, with the southeast U.S. on the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge.

Precipitation chances will be pretty typical of summer, with the
current forecast featuring generally 20-30%. Perhaps the better
coverage will occur Sunday and Monday as weak shortwave energy
ejects out of the southwest flow and traverses the area. Shear is
not impressive, so organized severe threat seems low, however a few
severe storms are certainly possible where boundary interactions
occur. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat.

Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs in the mid to
upper 90s away from the immediate coast. Heat indices will peak
around 104-107 each afternoon, which is below the post July 1 heat
advisory criteria of 110. Mild temperatures expected each night.
Lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A stationary front will shift northward and dissipate Tuesday night.
Chance POPs are in the forecast each afternoon. Southwest flow aloft
should allow for greater coverage of convection, which may help to
limit high temperatures each afternoon. Though, the synoptic pattern
still supports temperatures a few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rest of this afternoon: Best chances for convection will be at
KSAV, but current trends not looking like very strong convection.
Seems most convection, at least for the next several hours, will
remain just south of KCHS. Thus have no thunder mention there.

Tonight: Expect a return to VFR both sites.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible
with afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Still expecting some nocturnal surging of 15-20 kt by
this evening, especially closer to the coast once convection
starts to decrease. Otherwise, most of area will be generally 15
kts or less with seas 2 to 4 feet.

Sunday through Thursday: Atlantic high pressure will be the
predominant feature through mid week. Conditions expected to remain
below small craft advisory criteria through the period.
South/southwest winds generally 15 knots or less, with seas 2 to 4
feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for July 9:
KCHS: 103 set in 1986.
KCXM: 99 last set in 1986.
KSAV: 103 set in 1986.

All time record highs:
KCHS: 105 set August 1, 1999.
KCXM: 104 set June 2, 1985 and June 24, 1944.
KSAV: 105 set July 12, 1879 and July 20, 1986.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

GAZ118-119-SCZ043>045-047>052-101945-
INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-
INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-
COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
GREATEST THROUGH 7 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV OR YOUR LOCAL
NEWS SOURCE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>117-137>141-SCZ040-042-
101945-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-
INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
GREATEST THROUGH 7 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV OR YOUR LOCAL
NEWS SOURCE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
414 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE HARDEEVILLE        32.27N  81.06W
07/09/2016                   JASPER             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF PLANTATION
            DR AND BLUE GROUSE PT. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600575

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
420 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             METTER                  32.40N  82.06W
07/09/2016  E0.25 INCH       CANDLER            GA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TRAINED SPOTTER AND FIREFIGHTER REPORTED PEA-SIZE HAIL
            AT THE FIRESTATION IN METTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600576

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
423 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE GEORGIA SOUTHERN   32.40N  81.76W
07/09/2016                   BULLOCH            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON POWERLINES NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            OF BURKHALTER RD AND HWY 67. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600577

JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
423 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

GAZ087-092115-
JENKINS GA-
423 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF JENKINS COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HERNDON...OR 10 MILES WEST OF MILLEN...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
           LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
           CEASE. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MILLEN...BUTTS...HERNDON...PERKINS...SCARBORO AND EMMALANE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 8212 3292 8208 3292 8195 3295 8186
      3294 8183 3295 8182 3293 8179 3264 8188
      3264 8205 3266 8208 3283 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 271DEG 17KT 3282 8213