Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
424 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low
pressure trough persists inland. A weak cold front should approach
the area early next week before shifting back north during mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Updated to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of forecast
area, including nearshore waters, through 9PM. A line of
convective activity has managed to maintain itself as the mid-
level disturbance continues its trek across Georgia and South
Carolina. This line of thunderstorms will approach and may succeed
in holding together while crossing the forecast land areas into
the coastal waters over the next several hours. The primary threat
with these storms is expected to be marginally severe winds.

Tonight: The forecast area will remain under the influence of the
Bermuda High for the remainder of this evening and overnight.
Convective activity associated with a mid-level shortwave is
developing and organizing over central Georgia and northwestern
South Carolina, which was reasonably represented by earlier runs
of several high resolution models. Locally, severe weather
parameters continue to depict an environment that is relatively
unfavorable for significant storm organization, but the
environment is definitely conducive to convection, with surface-
based CAPEs approaching 4000-4500 J/kg. Isolated, weak cells have
developed inland over our western counties, and the potential for
stronger convection to move into our area from the northwest
remains. Downdraft CAPEs will remain marginally supportive of
severe winds from stronger convection through the early evening
hours. Convective activity is still expected to subside with the
loss of diurnal heating this evening, resulting in a dry and
partly cloudy overnight. Temperatures will fall to the mid-upper
70s inland to around 80 near the coast which may lead to new or
tied record high minimums for 7 July.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will persist to the south and east of the area
while a trough persists inland. Aloft, a shortwave trough is
expected to move southeast through the Carolinas Thursday with high
pressure building back in through the end of the week. This pattern
will maintain warmer than normal temperatures with highs in the
mid/upper 90s most locales away from the beaches with some spots
reaching 100 degrees or slightly higher Friday and especially
Saturday. Record high temperatures at our 3 climate sites appear
safe but could come within a few degrees, especially Thursday at
KCHS and Friday at KCHS/KSAV. See Climate section below for details.
Heat indices will likely peak at 105-110 degrees each afternoon, and
Heat Advisories are possible. Also, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected each day, with the best chances
likely on Thursday with the shortwave in play. A few of the storms
each afternoon/evening could become severe with damaging winds with
the highest risk most likely across South Carolina on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep-layered ridging as well as a downsloping wind will persist over
the southeastern United States late this weekend into early next
week, but greater chances of precip should arrive by Monday as a
weak cold front shifts south over the Mid-Atlantic states and stalls
near or just north of the area. The front should then lift back
north Tuesday into Wednesday while large-scale ridging occurs aloft.

The main issue will continue to focus on hot and humid conditions
each afternoon. As the Atlantic ridge and a downsloping wind persist
over the area, temps will likely peak in the mid/upper 90s away from
the coast. However, the west-northwest wind regime will shift to a
more southwest flow as the weak front approaches from the north by
Monday, thus likely limiting the potential of hot temps through mid
week. The southwest flow along with greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms should keep heat index values below Heat Advisory
criteria, ranging between 100-105 degrees during peak heating each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at both KCHS and KSAV through 18Z
Thursday. Low probabilities for thunderstorms and brief flight
restrictions at both terminals...mainly during the late afternoon
and early evening hours.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief periods of flight restrictions are
possible with mainly afternoon/early evening showers and
thunderstorms through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Expect winds to remain primarily southwesterly with
speeds peaking in early evening hours around 20 knots, highest
offshore from the Charleston County coast. Wind speeds overnight
should generally remain 15 knots or less, with a few, isolated
gusts to 25 knots possible. Seas will remain 3 to 4 feet.

Thursday through Monday: Offshore high pressure with inland low
pressure will prevail through late week before a weak cold front
stalls over or just to the north early next week. The setup will
favor south to southwest winds that will approach Small Craft
Advisory conditions at times, mainly through the weekend across the
Charleston County nearshore waters. Seas mainly 2-4 feet, highest
near the Gulf Stream.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures for July 7...
KCHS: 80 set in 1979 and previous.
KCXM: 82 set in 1990 and previous.
KSAV: 80 set in 1883.

Record High Temperatures for July 7:
KCHS: 99 set in 1954.
KCXM: 100 set in 1918.
KSAV: 101 last set in 1977.

Record High Temperatures for July 8:
KCHS: 100 set in 1986.
KCXM: 100 set in 1907.
KSAV: 101 last set in 2010.

Record High Temperatures for July 9:
KCHS: 103 set in 1986.
KCXM: 99 last set in 1986.
KSAV: 103 set in 1986.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMC/RJB
MARINE...JMC/RJB
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
614 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

AMZ330-350-352-354-GAZ101-116>119-137>141-SCZ043>045-047>052-072215-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-EFFINGHAM-INLAND BRYAN-
COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-
COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-INLAND COLLETON-
DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-
CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
614 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAT...HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 COMBINED WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY COULD PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ374-GAZ087-088-099-100-114-115-SCZ040-042-072215-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-TATTNALL-EVANS-ALLENDALE-
HAMPTON-
614 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAT...HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 COMBINED WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY COULD PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
612 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             2 SW LADSON             32.96N  80.14W
07/06/2016  E0.70 INCH       DORCHESTER         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS DIME SIZED HAIL IN THE OAKBROOK
            SECTION OF SUMMERVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600523

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
615 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROUND O                 32.94N  80.54W
07/06/2016                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOUTH CAROLINA STATE POLICE REPORT TREE DOWN AT
            INTERSECTION OF COTTAGEVILLE HWY AND ROUND O ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600524

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW MIDDLETON PLACE    32.94N  80.18W
07/06/2016                   DORCHESTER         SC   PUBLIC

            TWITTER REPORT OF TREE DOWN ON HWY 61 NEAR OSULLIVAN
            LANE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600525

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
627 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE SLANDS BRIDGE     32.95N  80.20W
07/06/2016                   DORCHESTER         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOUTH CAROLINA STATE POLICE REPORT TREE DOWN AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF DELEMAR HWY AND BEECH HILL ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1600526

CB

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