Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN U.S. WITH POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HELPING TO SEND A COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA/ TOWARDS THE AREA.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EVENING WOULD BE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE MIDLANDS. A NEW TORNADO WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR SOUTHWEST TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH GOES UNTIL 9
PM THIS EVENING. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT INSTABILITY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE...LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -5 C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
-6 TO -7 C/KM. 0-6 KM SHEAR HAS DECREASED A BIT FROM EARLIER BUT
STILL AROUND 40 KT...AND MODELS INDICATE IT COULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 50-60 KT AGAIN LATE. THESE PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH
IMPRESSIVE FORCING FROM UPPER JET...VORT ENERGY...AND REMNANT
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOSS OF INSOLATION SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE
SEVERE THREAT.

LATER TONIGHT...MOISTURE REALLY RAMPS UP AGAIN WITH PWATS
FORECAST OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN THIS AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING
PRESENT...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY CAUSE HEAVY
RAINS TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO. BY DAYBREAK...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE ORIENTED NE-SW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH ELEVATED
WINDS...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. THUS HAVE STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY AROUND THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH THE
COLD FRONT LIKELY SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
ONGOING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND AND JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS
IMPROVED AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS INCREASED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL LINGER
ALONG THE COAST UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY LOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND THE FACT THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION.
THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH OFFSHORE BY AT LEAST MID DAY AND THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF QUITE WARM...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND SHOULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
THEN WORK IN LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. POPS FOR LAND AREAS
COME TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST IS DRY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS
TURN MORE OUT OF THE WEST IN ITS WAKE. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO
CLEAR...BUT CLEARING SHOULD FINALLY TAKE PLACE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP DRY
AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...THEN BACK TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE UPPER
RIDGING PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION AFFECTS THE TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP WITH BEST TIMING FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AS TRENDS EVOLVE. A LULL IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AFTER
THE INITIAL BATCH...THEN LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE /18Z/ AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE WATERS WILL STAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER INLAND ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STAY
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT LATE.

SEA FOG...ELEVATED DEW POINTS STREAMING OVER COOLER ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL THEN LIKELY BE A DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP IN THE
COLD ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME/ALL OF
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT...BUT ADVISORIES DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...BSH/ECT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

GAZ087-088-012030-
SCREVEN GA-JENKINS GA-
356 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF JENKINS AND SCREVEN
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 356 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCARBORO...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MILLEN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH.

  IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
SYLVANIA...HILTONIA...ROCKY FORD...HILLTONIA...MILLHAVEN...ALTMAN AND
WOODCLIFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES
SUDDENLY...SOMETIMES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF SEVERE
WEATHER IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3266 8186 3281 8189 3296 8165 3272 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 243DEG 28KT 3274 8183

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

SCZ040-012100-
ALLENDALE SC-
405 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF ALLENDALE COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MILLETT TO NEAR
BURTONS FERRY LANDING...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH.

  IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
ALLENDALE...SYCAMORE...ULMER...SEIGLING...MARTIN...MILLETT AND APPLETON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT DAMAGE DIRECTLY TO THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-888-383-2024 WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. YOU CAN ALSO EMAIL YOUR
REPORT TO NWS.CHARLESTONSC@NOAA.GOV.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 8137 3312 8120 3308 8115 3287 8145
      3288 8148 3290 8147 3290 8148 3296 8151
      3297 8150 3301 8149 3301 8151 3305 8155
      3305 8157 3310 8161 3316 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 225DEG 37KT 3314 8152 3299 8143