Small Craft Advisory 34, NWS Charleston, SC

037 
WHUS72 KCHS 050018
MWWCHS

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
818 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

AMZ352-354-374-050600-
/O.CON.KCHS.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-160705T0600Z/
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
818 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* IMPACTS...WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO 
  SMALL CRAFT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DURING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ350-050830-
/O.CON.KCHS.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-160705T0900Z/
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
818 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* IMPACTS...WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO 
  SMALL CRAFT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DURING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

704 
WHUS72 KCHS 050442
MWWCHS

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1242 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

AMZ350-050900-
/O.CAN.KCHS.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-160705T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KCHS.SC.Y.0035.160705T0600Z-160705T0900Z/
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
1242 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING.

* IMPACTS...WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO 
  SMALL CRAFT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DURING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ352-354-374-050545-
/O.CAN.KCHS.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-160705T0600Z/
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1242 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1246 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail through the week while a low
pressure trough persists inland. A weak cold front should approach
the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update: No significant changes to the previous forecast. Still
possible to see a few heat indices near 110 degrees near the
coast prior to sea breeze passage but confidence in
duration/coverage too low to warrant Heat Advisory at this time.

Previous discussion: Persistent synoptic pattern will deliver
more of the same today with hot and humid weather and mostly
isolated diurnal convection across the forecast area. Models
indicate similar upper heights compared to Sunday but low level
thickness values are a couple of degrees shy of yesterday's progs
and the boundary layer flow is a bit more sw of w than the past
couple of days by 15Z. These factors may be enough to take a
couple degrees off of Sunday's readings. Elevated surface dew
points will persist and while forecast heat indices are in the 105
to 107 degree range today, a short-fused heat advisory may be
possible if dew points pool once again and temps run warmer than
anticipated. Diurnal cumulus fields are expected to expand early
this afternoon as convective temps are reached.

The subtropical ridge will remain the dominant feature aloft with
very warm mid level temps and upper ridging should act to suppress
convective coverage once again this afternoon and early evening.
Isolated tstms should develop with pops in the slight chance
range most areas with a low end chances along the sea breeze
corridor. While updraft potential remains poor with a relatively
dry and very warm mid level environment, you can never rule out an
isolated pulse tstm producing a localized wet downburst in a
collapsing stage.

Tonight: Early evening spotty convection inland will dissipate with
the loss of diurnal heat, making way for another very warm night.
Low temps will be between 75 and 80 degrees most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The pattern will feature an Atlantic ridge of high pressure centered
off the Southeast coast and a trough of low pressure over the
Midlands. Aloft, an expansive ridge of high pressure will be present
across the southeastern United States, but could be slightly
suppressed with the arrival of a h5 shortwave Tuesday and Wednesday.
In regards to precip, a slight chance to chance of showers and/or
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon. However, coverage
should be greatest inland on Tuesday closer to the vicinity of the
inland trough. Increasing low/mid lvl wind fields could also
support slightly more organized convection than previous days, but
the overall threat of severe weather will be fairly low. As we
head into Wednesday, the h5 shortwave should nudge the inland sfc
trough closer to the coast, suggesting a greater coverage of
precip over most areas away from the immediate coastline. PWATS
near 2.0 inches also support showers/thunderstorms capable of
producing brief heavy rainfall. On Thursday, chances of precip
should be highest in the Tri-County area closer to where the bulk
of the h5 shortwave energy shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast late.

Temps will be warm mid week even with clouds associated with
afternoon or evening precip. In general, the pattern favors a slight
warming trend as the low-lvl flow veers from west-southwest
Tuesday to west-northwest by Thursday. Afternoon highs should peak
in the mid 90s away from the coast through Wednesday, then upper 90s
on Thursday. These temps along with sfc dewpts in the low/mid 70s
support heat index values between 103-108 during afternoon hours
through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A dampened mid-lvl shortwave will shift offshore by the weekend,
giving way to deep-layered ridging over the southeastern United
States. The strengthening ridge along with a downsloping wind
component will help limit overall precip chances through much of the
weekend. Greater chances of precip could then arrive early next week
as a weak cold front approaches the area from the north.

The main issue this weekend will focus on hot and humid conditions
each afternoon. As the Atlantic ridge builds over the area, temps
will trend warmer within a west-northwest flow regime. The setup
will likely result in temps peaking in the mid/upper 90s away from
the coast each day. Some locations could even hit the 100 degree
mark well inland over the weekend. The main question will be how
much sfc dewpts mix out during afternoon hours given the westerly
downsloping wind component. At this time, sfc dewpts should remain
around 70 degrees where temps are warmest inland. These temps/dewpts
support heat index values between 103-108 degrees Friday through
Monday. Should temps trend warmer or moisture levels remain higher
than anticipated, Heat Advisories could be needed late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR. Low probabilities of flight restrictions in brief
showers/thunderstorms until about 23Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief periods of flight restrictions are
possible with afternoon/evening thunderstorms through Thursday.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: Atlantic high pressure and weak low pressure
across upstate South Carolina the main synoptic features through
tonight. A modest low level pressure gradient will strengthen with
diurnal impacts from both the sea breeze and nocturnal effects of
a 25-30 kt low level jet late day and this evening. Southwest flow
will increase to near 20 kt at times across the waters with
occasional gusts to 25 kt possible. Seas will build to 3 to 5 ft
with highest seas beyond 20 nm off the coast.

Tuesday through Saturday...A tightening pressure gradient will
develop over the coastal waters Tuesday between Atlantic high
pressure and a low pressure trough inland. Southwest winds could
gust as high as 20-25 kt at times Tuesday afternoon/evening into
early Wednesday, especially in northern SC waters where the pressure
gradient is strongest. A Small Craft Advisory could eventually be
needed. Seas will also build, peaking between 4-5 ft beyond 10 nm in
the northern SC waters and in offshore GA waters through Wednesday.
Conditions will then slowly improve within a southwest/west flow
Thursday through Saturday. In general, winds will peak no higher
than 15-20 kt late week, highest near a somewhat pinned seabreeze
along the coast. Seas will range between 2-4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides will continue to be high today due to astronomical
influences and shallow coastal flooding is possible at least
along the central/southern SC coast with the evening high tide
cycle.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures for July 4...
KCHS...78 set in 1993.
KCXM...83 set in 1998.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Beaufort NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards transmitter will
remain off the air until further notice.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1005 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-051000-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
1005 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO THE MID 90S AND WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD LOCALLY REACH 110
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE
SEA BREEZE. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY STILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED
HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
COULD OCCUR AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-
SCZ040-042>045-047-052-051000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
1005 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.