Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1053 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016

...DANGEROUS WINDS CONTINUE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Matthew will move northeast over or just offshore of the
South Carolina coast this morning. The hurricane will move away from
the forecast area later today and tonight, with high pressure
to begin building in thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Hurricane Matthew will continue to exit to the northeast today.
The strong post-hurricane issalobaric response is keeping
dangerous winds in place which will linger for the next several
hours. Surface observations show winds are still gusting 60-70 mph
at times with gusts to hurricane force along portions of the
middle South Carolina coast. Will hang onto the current set of
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for a few more hours, but
will likely clear the Georgia warnings by 2 pm and the South
Carolina warnings by 5 pm.

Dry air is working steadily into the area from the south and
southwest. This is helping to erode Matthew's rain field. Adjusted
near term pops to reflect trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Matthew will be well off the coast Sunday and starting to loop
around to the south by Monday. Meanwhile, broad high pressure to our
north will be building into the area, bringing drier conditions and
tranquil weather. Aloft, heights will rise as a ridge moves over the
east coast late Monday. The result of this pattern will be a rain-
free forecast across our entire area Sunday. Some showers may form
far offshore on Monday, but no rain is expected over land.
Temperatures will be in the 70s each day and the 50s Sunday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Virtually no change in the forecast thinking for the long term
period. Matthew is still forecast by many long term models to loop
around off the southeast coast as high pressure prevails inland
across the forecast area. The inland high pressure and prevailing
north to northeast flow will continue through Thursday with just
slight chance to chance PoP's across the coastal waters at times.
Through the period, temperatures will gradually warm, reaching near
normal values by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tropical storm conditions will continue to impact the terminals
through today, before improving conditions develop later today and
tonight, first at KSAV than at KCHS.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Improving conditions late Saturday as
Hurricane Matthew moves away from the coast. Gusty northerly winds
may continue Sunday and Monday, especially along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
**NOTE: Wind data from Gray's Reef (Buoy 41008) is unavailable,
likely due to the wind equipment being damaged from Hurricane
Matthew as the western eyewall passed nearby around midnight last
night.**

Today: Dangerous hurricane conditions will continue to impact the
coastal waters as Hurricane Matthew moves along or just offshore the
South Carolina coast. Wind gusts can exceed 80 or 90 kt, especially
near the center of Matthew. Seas will be as high as 20 or 25 ft
within 20 nm of the coast, but up to 30 or 35 ft on the outer
Georgia waters. Even in Charleston Harbor waves will be in excess of
4 ft.

Tonight: Conditions won't be as extreme as today, but strong winds
and elevated seas will continue, more common in the range of Small
Craft Advisory and/or Gale Warnings.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents this weekend due Hurricane
Matthew.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Will likely be able to canel portions of the Flash Flood Watch
with the 2 pm update.

Area rivers have responded to the excessive rainfall and a River
Flood Warning has been issued for the Edisto River at Givhans
Ferry and at Jamestown on the Santee River. Additionally, Clyo on
the Savannah River could also require warnings later this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
**NOTE: The C-MAN site at Fort Pulaski is no longer reporting
 data. Most likely caused by winds in excess of 80 mph.**

The surge that has accompanied Hurricane Matthew occurred at the
absolutely worst time, as the western eyewall approached Fort
Pulaski with the last high tide earlier this morning and generated a
preliminary record crest of 12.56 ft MLLW. This was above the
previous record crest that occurred from Hurricane David in 1979
when the level reached 12.21 ft MLLW.

At Charleston the surge boosted tide levels to 9.29 ft MLLW, which
is it's third highest in recorded history and the highest since
Hurricane Huge in 1989.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115-137.
     Hurricane Warning for GAZ116>119-138>141.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for GAZ087-088-100-101-
     116>119.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ040-042-043.
     Hurricane Warning for SCZ044-045-047>052.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ048>051.
     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...Hurricane Warning for AMZ330-350-352-354-374.

&&

ST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
528 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

GAZ116-118-SCZ044-045-047-052-090930-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
528 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   HURRICANE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ117-119-SCZ048>051-090930-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-
COASTAL JASPER-
528 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   HURRICANE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ087-088-100-101-SCZ040-042-043-090930-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-
528 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ138-140-090930-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
528 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ099-114-115-137-090930-
CANDLER-TATTNALL-EVANS-LONG-
528 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ139-141-090930-
COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
528 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
   HURRICANE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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