Winter Weather Advisory 21, NWS Caribou, ME

573 
WWUS41 KCAR 221424
WSWCAR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
924 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

MEZ001-002-221530-
/O.EXP.KCAR.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-161122T1400Z/
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...CLAYTON LAKE...MADAWASKA...
FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...PRESQUE ISLE...CARIBOU...VAN BUREN...
MARS HILL
924 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

ROAD CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
141 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of low pressure will cross the area overnight then
continue east through the Maritimes Tuesday into Wednesday. High
pressure will build across the region Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
140 AM Update... Latest satl imagery showed upper low right over
the region pulling slowly east. Sfc low was just n of the border
w/sfc trof/convergence axis across northern areas.

Adjusted the pops upward based on the latest radar trends. The 00z
NAM12 doing well w/this event and matching up nicely per the
radar. Changed the wx element from snow showers to snow and
increased snowfall amounts by one inch. Temps will slide back into
the upper 20s w/roads becoming snow covered and icy, mainly across
the northern 1/2 of the CWA. A Special Weather Statement remains
in effect through 4 am to cover for the slippery driving
conditions.

Previous discussion...
Intense surface low pressure will move slowly to the north
passing to the west of the state tonight. At the same time a deep
upper level low pressure system will track across northern Maine.
There is plenty of cold air aloft but temperatures near the
surface are warmer. Expect low level temperatures to drop tonight
which will result in accumulating snow from heavier snow snow
showers, especially across the north. The intense low pressure
system will move away to the northeast later Tuesday but snow
showers are expected to continue through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper low wl be spinning acrs the Gulf of St. Lawrence Tue ngt
throwing vort maxes twd CWA ovrngt. Best chc for snow showers
looks to be confined to north and east zones as this area wl be
closest to moisture and isentropic lift. Total snow accums look to
be arnd 1 inch in the St. John Vly with lesser amnts further south
and east with no snow showers expected south of a Danforth-Clayton
Lake line Tue ngt. Heaviest snow looks to occur acrs northeast
Aroostook btwn 00z and 06z Wed.

High pressure will build in Wed aftn fm the west ending snow showers
in the mrng. Skies wl bcm psunny in Downeast zones in the aftn with
maxes topping out arnd 40F. Nrn zones wl be arnd normal with highs
in the 30s drg the day. Expect nw winds to continue to gust,
especially in the mrng until pressure gradient relaxes.

Dry wx is expected Wed ngt thru the day Thur. Cold advection wl
occur Wed ngt with mins by mrng dropping to arnd 20 in the North
Woods and mid 20s acrs Downeast zones, maybe cldr where skies clr
and winds go lgt.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active weather pattern Thursday night into early next week, but low
confidence in the details.

An upper level trough over the Great Lakes Friday will move east to
our region Saturday, then perhaps cut off into an upper level low
somewhere over our region. Where this occurs is quite uncertain.
The potential does exist for a substantial snow event somewhere
over the region in the Saturday night to Sunday night timeframe,
but just where this occurs, it's too early to say.

Temperatures Thursday night through Monday look to be near or a
touch above average, but a lot depends on where and to what
strength the upper level low cuts off over the region and the
subsequent surface low pressure development that results. Chance
of precipitation exists through the whole period, and with
temperatures fairly close to freezing, precipitation type will be
a tough call.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to continue through
Tuesday at the northern terminals, but mostly VFR at the Down
East terminals with short periods of MVFR possible.

SHORT TERM: IFR for northern terminals Tue night in ocnl heavy
snow showers. BGR and BHB will likely be VFR into Thur night
before dropping toward MVFR as system moves in from the west and
lingers into the weekend. Northern terminals will be VFR Wed night
through Thur before becoming MVFR Thur night through the end of
the period. Gusty nw winds continue through Wed afternoon before
high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM12 for sustained winds. Pressure
Gradient weakens tonight into Tuesday so have lowered gale to
sca.

SHORT TERM: SCA looks to continue into Wed morning before pressure
gradient relaxes and seas drop below 5 ft. Levels will be below
SCA criteria through the end of the week as high pressure builds
over the waters. Primary wave system is southerly 8-11 feet/8-9
seconds. Waves are expected to subside to 5 to 7 feet by late
Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Month to date (through Nov 20th) it has been the 3rd warmest
November on record at Caribou, and the 11th warmest at Bangor.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

Near Term...Hewitt

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-222330-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
626 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...EASTERN
MAINE...FAR NORTHERN MAINE...NORTH CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE
AND WEST CENTRAL MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LOCALLY ACCUMULATE A COUPLE OF INCHES AND PRODUCE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ050>052-222330-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT, ME TO SCHOODIC POINT, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRA COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT, ME TO STONINGTON, ME-
626 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ015>017-029-030-222330-
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
626 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAY LOCALLY PRODUCE A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.