Gale Watch 5, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
918 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
918 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A 850H TEMP OF -24.5C ON THE 00Z
KCAR SOUNDING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA TO PRODUCE A 10 TO 15 MPH WIND WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER
GUSTS. THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE WIND IS
PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
MAINE AS OF 9 PM. WILL EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES A FEW
HOURS UNTIL 4 AM, AND ALSO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES TO COVER ALL OF
THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS THE WIND DROPS OFF VERY LATE TONIGHT SOME
OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION AND
BIG BLACK RIVER MAY DROP TO 30 BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE WEST
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT THEN
CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY EVENING THEN
MOVE TO THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS STAY AT AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 0600Z
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST... SO WILL KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN PLACE
UNTIL THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY/NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN OVER QUEBEC TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR DOWNEAST
ZONES MONDAY EVENING AND THE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...AN AREA OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
SHOULD FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE COAST.

AFTER THE PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN...UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS BACK NEW
ENGLAND. THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF TO SCTD RAIN/SHOWERS DUE
TO THE CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THOUGH PRECIP FROM THE TUES SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY ON WED, SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER WED NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THE RISK WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE AND THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. UPR RIDGING AND AN APPROACHING
SFC HIGH WILL SQUASH ANY LINGERING SNOW LATER THU, AND THU NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY. INDEED, SUB-ZERO TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE NORTH OF A KATAHDIN - HOULTON LINE,
WITH SINGLE DIGITS INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE, TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

WHILE THEY DISAGREE A BIT ON THE ONSET TIMING, THE ECMWF AND GFS
BOTH SHOW THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA ROUGHLY BETWEEN
FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT A TRACK TO
THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE STATE IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION,
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MILD TEMPS AND LIKELY A SNOW-TO-RAIN
EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPR LVL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IN THE EXTENDED, THIS MAY BE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WENT WITH POPS ABV
50 FROM EARLY SAT THRU SAT AFTN. TAILED OFF POPS SAT NIGHT, AND
SHOW A BIT OF CLEARING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINING MVFR/IFR CIGS TO AREA.
HOWEVER THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY
AS WARMER AIR SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT..CAUSING WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE W BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS WITH
THIS UPDATE. WILL KEEP THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 4 AM AND
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UP UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN OUT OF
THE WEST. WAVES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 TO 18 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THESE CONDITIONS...A GALE WARNING WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH OF +2F AT CARIBOU SUNDAY WAS THE LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE
OBSERVED SO FAR THIS WINTER. THE HIGH AT BANGOR OF +5F WAS ALSO
THE LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OBSERVED THIS WINTER. NEITHER WAS A
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
   ANZ050>052. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
   ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE/BERDES
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE/BERDES
CLIMATE...CB

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