Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
127 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the
Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. North of the ridge, a pressure
trough and associated moisture will be in the forecast area. The
pattern indicates continued above normal temperatures because of
the ridging and thunderstorms associated with the trough.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak upper ridging will continue over the region through tonight
with a lee-side trough at the surface. Convergence into the
trough combined with strong heating will continue to promote
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Moisture is abundant with precipitable water values generally
around 2.0 to 2.1 inches. Mesoscale analysis this afternoon shows
moderate instability across the forecast area with LI values
around -6 to -7. Slow storm movement and relatively high
precipitable water supports a threat from locally heavy rainfall.
The instability indicates a possibility of damaging wind with a
few of the thunderstorms. Temperatures are on track this afternoon
with above normal highs still expected in the middle 90s.
Overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The models depict surface troughing and considerable moisture
continuing through Saturday. The pattern supports thunderstorms
but coverage should remain limited because of lingering upper
ridging with h5 temperatures -6 to -7 C. The guidance consensus
supports pops 40 to 50 percent. Followed the higher maximum
temperature guidance because of the upper ridging and recent bias.
The minimum temperature guidance was consistent.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display surface troughing with a band of
moisture extending through the forecast area through Sunday.
The models indicate a cold front moving through the area Monday.
The front will likely stall just south of the area. The pattern
indicates a chance of thunderstorms especially through Monday.
Temperatures should remain above normal ahead of the front through
Sunday. Expect near normal temperatures during the end of the
period as noted by the GFS and ECMWF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for a majority of the TAF period outside
of diurnal convection and possible early morning stratus.

Bermuda high pressure will gradually weaken over the region through
the period while moisture and instability increase. Scattered
diurnal convection will continue through this evening. Restrictions
may be possible in heavy rain with storms that move over the
terminals. Strong winds will also be possible. Have indicated VCTS
in all TAFs through 19/03Z, but may amend as confidence in
coverage and timing increase. Convection expected to diminish
tonight as instability decreases with the loss of daytime heating.
Bufkit model soundings show abundant low level moisture early
Friday. Model guidance is indicating potential for fog/stratus,
but believe stratus is the more likely scenario given a 25 kt low
level jet and expected debris clouds. Winds will generally be out
of the southwest through the period at around 7 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered to numerous diurnal
thunderstorms each day. Some late night/early morning fog/stratus
possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-190715-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
233 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD POSSIBLY
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND. HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

SCZ015-016-021-022-028-029-181830-
LEE-RICHLAND-FAIRFIELD-CHESTERFIELD-LANCASTER-KERSHAW-
134 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KERSHAW...SOUTHEASTERN
LANCASTER...NORTHERN RICHLAND...SOUTH CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD...EAST
CENTRAL FAIRFIELD AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 132 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTH OF KERSHAW...
OR 13 MILES NORTH OF CAMDEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMDEN...LUGOFF...MCBEE AND BETHUNE.

LAT...LON 3446 8016 3436 8029 3410 8071 3436 8092
      3459 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 307DEG 7KT 3444 8055

HC