Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
247 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A pressure ridge will extend into the forecast area from
the Atlantic through Wednesday. The ridge will weaken late
this week with greater chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon, south to southeasterly winds remain across the
region as high pressure is centered off to the east of the area.
Good cumulus field has developed as moisture moves onshore along
the coast. Some shortwave energy may brush the western cwa through
the afternoon, along with the inland moving sea-breeze, both of
which may cause some isolated showers or storms through the late
afternoon and into the evening. Afternoon highs still on track for
middle 90s.

Tonight, Can not rule out some isolated shower activity remaining
into the evening hours. Otherwise mostly dry. The minimum
temperature guidance was consistent, with readings once again in
the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda high will continue dominating the region as moisture plume
associate with remains of the low pressure over the far western
Gulf of Mexico streams northward into the Ohio Valley. The Bermuda
High will retreat slowly Wednesday as an upper level trough digs
into the Great Lakes region. Moisture will remain plentiful in the
low levels...however dry air will remain aloft. The combination of
the high at the surface and dry air aloft will work in combination
to limit convection through Wednesday. Have remained with slight
chance pops Tuesday and low chance pops Wednesday as the Bermuda
high retreats slightly into the Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Few changes made in the long term forecast as models remain in
good agreement. Bermuda high will move east into the Atlantic as
the upper level trough swings into the eastern US. Moisture axis
from the western gulf will orient more west to east and begin
entering the forecast area on Thursday. The moisture axis will
remain over the area through the weekend when a strong upper level
trough and surface cold front push into the eastern US. This will
result in high chance pops through the long term. Temperatures
will be slightly above normal for Thursday and Friday...then near
normal for Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for a majority of the TAF period.

Some mid and high level cloudiness expected across the region
through the afternoon, with conditions remaining vfr through a
portion of the night. Onshore flow and weak shortwave may promote
isolated convection across the area through early afternoon.
Convection coverage too limited to include in TAFS at this time.
Winds will be southerly 10 knots or less. Some potential for mvfr
visibilities at ags/ogb towards sunrise.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR or lower conditions possible in
early morning stratus/fog on Wednesday. Brief restrictions
possible in diurnal convection...especially Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
254 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-160700-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
254 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

SCZ036>038-152045-
CLARENDON-CALHOUN-ORANGEBURG-
400 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ORANGEBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHWESTERN CLARENDON COUNTIES...
...THE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MARION...

AT 358 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR HOLLY HILL...OR 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF INDIAN FIELD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. BOATERS ON LAKE
MARION SHOULD PREPARE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELLOREE...SANTEE AND VANCE.

LAT...LON 3328 8048 3329 8049 3333 8049 3333 8051
      3329 8058 3331 8069 3360 8053 3350 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 119DEG 9KT 3339 8046

AWP