Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
810 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A pressure ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic into the
northern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. North of the ridge a
pressure trough will be in the forecast area. There will also be
weak upper troughing over the area. The pattern supports an
increased chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Regional radar this evening shows a large area of storms in the
northwestern Midlands and Pee Dee region and another area of
storms in the eastern CSRA and central Midlands. There are several
boundaries across the area from earlier storms that may act to
enhance convection, however, the severe threat through tonight
appears low given reduced instability. Hi-resolution models
support shower and storm coverage diminishing through midnight.
Cannot rule out isolated showers and storms overnight given the
upper trough to our west and increasing moisture so have continued
with slight chance pops. Low temperatures forecast near guidance,
in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Persistent surface trough across the area will be a focus for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as low level
convergence will be enhanced. Upper level trough over the eastern
CONUS with several weak short waves rotating northeast through the
region. Models suggest convection may be more widespread Saturday
afternoon with deeper moisture...strong upper level divergence and
moderate instability. Followed the guidance consensus for the pop
forecast but trended a little higher. Marginal severe
thunderstorm threat as deep layer shear a little stronger than
previous days. Also...with high precipitable water near 2
inches...potential for locally heavy rain. Thunderstorms may
linger into the overnight period. Sunday the focus may be in the
eastern midlands as surface trough shift toward the coast. So
highest pops in the east by Sunday afternoon. Maximum temperatures
will likely be lower compared to previous days because of deeper
moisture in the area. The temperature guidance was close.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging extending from the
Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico during much of the medium-range
period. The models showed some troughing in the forecast area.
The models indicated upper ridging early but troughing along the
east coast by the middle of the week.  GFS ensemble suggests
lower pops toward the end of the period. will continue chance
afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day with near normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the 24-hr TAF period
with restrictions possible in diurnal convection.

Radar imagery as of 00Z still showing scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Expect coverage to gradually
diminish tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Hi-resolution
models show most of the activity east of AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB by 02Z
and east of OGB by 04Z. Winds will generally be out of the
southwest at 5 to 10 knots...except gusting to 25 to 35 kts in
thunderstorms. Models do not indicate fog/stratus development at
the TAF sites early Saturday morning which appears reasonable
given a 20 knot low level jet and expected debris cloudiness.
Convection is expected to develop again on Saturday and may once
again produce strong winds.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing potential for restrictions
in convection this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
341 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-160745-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
341 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD POSSIBLY
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

SCZ020-021-160015-
NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN FAIRFIELD AND
NORTHEASTERN NEWBERRY COUNTIES...

AT 726 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WHITMIRE...OR 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NEWBERRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWBERRY...WHITMIRE...PROSPERITY...POMARIA AND PEAK.

LAT...LON 3457 8125 3456 8124 3429 8110 3418 8159
      3440 8176 3444 8173 3446 8169 3453 8164
      3449 8157 3445 8154 3449 8149 3449 8146
      3450 8142 3457 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 244DEG 25KT 3443 8169

FWA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

SCZ027-030-036-160045-
LEXINGTON-ORANGEBURG-AIKEN-
745 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
ORANGEBURG...SOUTHWESTERN LEXINGTON AND CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTIES...

AT 744 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 14 MILES NORTH OF
WILLISTON...OR 15 MILES EAST OF AIKEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RED BANK...NEW ELLENTON...SWANSEA...WAGENER...PELION...GILBERT...
SUMMIT...SALLEY...PERRY...WOODFORD AND WINDSOR.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3329 8164 3352 8164 3378 8162 3403 8133
      3371 8105 3349 8137 3349 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 241DEG 31KT 3360 8147

FWA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
841 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

SCZ030-035-036-041-160145-
BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-BAMBERG-AIKEN-
841 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL ORANGEBURG...
CENTRAL BARNWELL...NORTHWESTERN BAMBERG AND CENTRAL AIKEN COUNTIES...

AT 840 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WILLISTON...OR 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF BARNWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAVANNAH RIVER SITE...WILLISTON...BLACKVILLE...NEW ELLENTON...
WAGENER...SPRINGFIELD...SALLEY...NORWAY...SNELLING...PERRY...
ELKO AND WINDSOR.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3314 8161 3341 8178 3367 8134 3345 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 234DEG 13KT 3341 8146

WRS

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