Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
638 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the
Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A weak pressure trough will
linger in the forecast area. The pattern supports mainly scattered
diurnal thunderstorms with temperatures a little above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms are slowly weakening across the area
early this evening. Think the main threat for the remainder of the
evening will be locally heavy rain due to slow-moving storm cells
and high PW values. Convection will begin diminishing with
sunset...however with the boundary still across the area and
remaining outflow boundaries intersecting some activity could
linger through midnight or so. Overnight lows will generally be in
the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models display lee-side troughing in the forecast area with
surface ridging to the south. A flat upper pattern is shown.
Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and
convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front
that may move well inland. The MAV and MET MOS have pops 10 to 30
percent. The NAM and GSP indicate h5 temperatures near -6 C.
Instability will likely remain weak and the NAM has surface-based
LI's about -4 indicating a diminished risk of severe thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the
Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range
period. The models keep a frontal zone mainly just north of the
forecast area with lee-side troughing in the area. There may be
upper support at times with a series of mid-level shortwave
troughs brushing the area. The GFS ensemble mean has pops 20 to 30
percent during the period. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS have pops
10 to 40 percent with no particular day more favored for
precipitation. The MOS supports above normal temperatures during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period.

Convection is slowly diminishing across the area early this
evening. Will continue with mention of thunder in a TEMPO group
for OGB/AGS/DNL for the next couple of hours given current radar
trends. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish later this evening. Have
remained with MVFR conditions at all taf sites during the early
morning and sunrise hours as moisture from rainfall will become
trapped under the inversion.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnal
convection each afternoon through the period along with late
night/early morning patchy fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-012230-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
623 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
532 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

SCZ027-030-302200-
LEXINGTON-AIKEN-
532 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE LEXINGTON AND
AIKEN COUNTY LINE AREA NORTH OF WAGENER...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE LEXINGTON AND AIKEN
COUNTY LINE AREA ALONG STATE ROAD 113 NORTH OF WAGENER
THROUGH 600 PM.

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

PONDING OF WATER WILL OCCUR IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3368 8145 3375 8148 3380 8143 3370 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 266DEG 49KT 3372 8127

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
539 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

GAZ064-065-SCZ018-025-302200-
RICHMOND-COLUMBIA-MCCORMICK-EDGEFIELD-
539 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT COLUMBIA...
SOUTHWESTERN EDGEFIELD AND SOUTHEASTERN MCCORMICK
COUNTIES...

AT 536 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
EDGEFIELD COUNTY WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY.
MOVEMENT WAS EASTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS
NEAR 45 MPH AND ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER HAIL...ALONG
WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PONDING OF WATER
WILL OCCUR IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3340 8223 3354 8235 3369 8209 3361 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 188DEG 7KT 3361 8208

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW EVANS             33.57N 82.16W
06/30/2016                   COLUMBIA           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN ALONG HARDY-MCMANUS
            ROAD.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW EVANS             33.57N 82.16W
06/30/2016                   COLUMBIA           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN ALONG HARDY-MCMANUS
            ROAD.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
711 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW EVANS             33.57N 82.16W
06/30/2016                   COLUMBIA           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN ALONG HARDY-MCMANUS
            ROAD.

&&

DA

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