Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
425 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south of the forecast area tonight.
Dry and cooler high pressure will take hold across the region
this weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm back up under high
pressure early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Numerous thunderstorms have occurred ahead of the cold front this
afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms were severe with strong
instability ahead of the front. The front will be pushing into
the Southern Midlands and CSRA this evening. The chance of
additional thunderstorms this evening will be low because of
previous convection. Low-level moisture in the northeast flow
behind the front plus nocturnal cooling should lead to stratus
late. The guidance was close with lows near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday Night...An upper-level ridge centered over
the desert southwest will begin to build over the region north of
the upper-level trough axis. At the surface, high pressure will
wedge southward into the area to the lee of the Appalachians. Low
clouds will be in place to start the day, but drier air will
eventually work its way into the area from the north allowing for
some clearing during the afternoon with mainly clear skies at
night. Although a rather significant cool down is expected given
the extensive clouds early and the building wedge, there is still
still uncertainty in the high temperature forecast. For now, will
stay close to model consensus with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
An unseasonably cool night is in store, with lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s most places.

Sunday and Sunday Night...The surface wedge will remain in place
along with the associated cool northeast flow. Under mostly
sunny/clear skies, temperatures should peak in the lower to mid
80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement through midweek,
resulting in an above normal confidence forecast during that time.
A deep/stacked low pressure system over the western Atlantic will
retrograde toward the NC /Mid-Atlantic coast Monday, but a
building ridge from the west and surface high pressure crossing
the area will result in rain-free conditions and moderating
temperatures. The upper ridge will continue to build Tuesday as a
southerly flow develops and pushes temperatures back up above
normal. A cold front will then move through from the northwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night, resulting in a chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the area. Guidance then begins to diverge
a bit, with the GFS appearing more unsettled late week with an
upper trough approaching and a surface boundary setting up over
the area. The latest GFS shows a cutoff low developing over the TN
valley by late Friday. The forecast will indicate low chances of
showers for now with temperatures near or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Convection, some of which has been strong, will continue shifting
south and east of the terminals ahead of a cold front. The front
will be near the area this evening, but the thunderstorm chance
will be low because of previous convection. It will be breezy with
high pressure ridging into the area behind the front. Followed the
GFS LAMP for the wind forecast. Moisture in the northeast flow
behind the front plus nocturnal cooling should lead to stratus
development late. The GFS and NAM MOS supported MVFR ceilings.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Breezy conditions will occur during
the rest of Saturday. Otherwise, no significant impacts expected
during the rest of the outlook period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-181815-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-
FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-
SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
213 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ015-016-181815-
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
213 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
346 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE LINCOLNTON         33.86N 82.40W
06/17/2016                   LINCOLN            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ELIJAH CLARK STATE PARK. ESTMD. 20 DAMAGED
            CAMPERS. 3 DAMAGED VEHICLES. 1 TREE DOWN ON
            CAMPER. MULTIPLE TREES AND PWR LINES DOWN.
            VIA COUNTY EM.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 WNW EASTOVER          33.92N 80.80W
06/17/2016  M54 MPH          RICHLAND           SC   ASOS

            MCENTIRE JNGB ASOS PK WND 31047/13.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
404 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S MANNING             33.59N 80.21W
06/17/2016  M59 MPH          CLARENDON          SC   ASOS

            MANNING SANTEE-COOPER REGIONAL AIRPORT PK
            WND 34018G51KT.

&&

DA

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