Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
224 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO CROSS
THE REGION WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 6 KFT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL
EXISTS FROM THESE CELLS AND A COUPLE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
FROM NORTH OF THE CAE AREA THUS FAR WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TO AROUND
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
THE WINDS PERSISTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN OPTIMAL. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER
OUTLYING AREAS SEEING THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY LIFTING OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT LINGERING 500MB COLD POOL AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOWER 50S BUT WILL WARM A
BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CROSSING THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE TAF SITES. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 6
KFT REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...HOWEVER THESE ARE
NOT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY GUSTY
WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO AGAIN
DEVELOP WITH ANY SHOWERS CONTAINED TO THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME GUSTY FROM 06/15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MP
NEAR TERM...MP
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...MP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
310 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-060715-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
310 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
442 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SCZ025>027-030-035>037-041-052145-
BARNWELL-LEXINGTON-SALUDA-CALHOUN-ORANGEBURG-EDGEFIELD-BAMBERG-AIKEN-
442 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH MIDLANDS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...

AT 438 PM EDT...A THUNDERSTORM OVER EDGEFIELD COUNTY DURING THE PAST
HALF HOUR PRODUCED SMALL HAIL WITH SOME ACCUMULATION. STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST INTO AIKEN COUNTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL WILL CONTINUE. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS
MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AIKEN...JOHNSTON...RIDGE SPRING...WAGENER...NORTH...PELION...SPRINGFIELD...
SALLEY...NEESES...MONETTA...PERRY...TRENTON...WOODFORD...LIVINGSTON AND
WARD.

LAT...LON 3367 8200 3392 8172 3369 8099 3338 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 293DEG 30KT 3380 8172

AWP

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