Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
918 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DRYING WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING...EXCEPT FOR SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE CSRA
WHERE INSTABILITIES ARE HIGHER. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER CENT GA AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIIVTY CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST
STRETCHING ACROSS N GA INTO ALA. ARRAY OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST AND
TRAVERSING OUR FA TONIGHT MAINLY 04Z- 08Z. SO...HAVE TRENDED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SOUTH AND EASTWARD AS
IT MOVES APPROACHES THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE
AREA PLUS THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS ALL OF THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE MODERATE INSTABILITY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW
TOTALS VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 TUESDAY. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. BELIEVE THESE
STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED BUT POTENTIAL EXIST. GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT FOR CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY
WITH LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUAL DECLINE INTO
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALSO HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND HAVE STAYED WITH CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW FAR
SOUTHWARD CLOSED LOW WILL PROGRESS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH H5
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -20 C TO -25 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY...JUST DEPENDS ON SPEED AND POSITION OF
CLOSED LOW. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES
MUCH BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY THEN RISING TO AT/ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING...EXCEPT FOR SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE CSRA
NEAR DNL/AGS WHERE INSTABILITIES ARE HIGHER. FARTHER
WEST...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENT GA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIIVTY CURRENTLY
TO OUR WEST STRETCHING ACROSS N GA INTO ALA. ARRAY OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
EAST AND TRAVERSING OUR FA TONIGHT MAINLY 04Z- 08Z.

WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEAR TERM AND HANDLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS
APPROPRIATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CONFIDENCE LEVEL. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. WILL HANDLE WITH
VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. VFR EXPECTED FRI/SAT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
248 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-030915-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
248 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
915 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GAZ064-065-SCZ018-025-030-030145-
RICHMOND-COLUMBIA-MCCORMICK-EDGEFIELD-AIKEN-
915 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...
NORTHEASTERN RICHMOND...SOUTHERN EDGEFIELD...SOUTHEASTERN MCCORMICK
AND NORTHWESTERN AIKEN COUNTIES...

AT 915 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BELVEDERE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AIKEN...NORTH AUGUSTA...GROVETOWN...EVANS...CLEARWATER...BELVEDERE...
AUGUSTA...FORT GORDON...MARTINEZ...EDGEFIELD...GLOVERVILLE...BURNETTOWN...
TRENTON AND MURPHYS ESTATES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3337 8208 3350 8231 3384 8191 3362 8161
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 224DEG 18KT 3357 8200

CJR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
954 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ018-025>027-030-030245-
MCDUFFIE-LINCOLN-RICHMOND-COLUMBIA-MCCORMICK-LEXINGTON-SALUDA-
EDGEFIELD-AIKEN-
954 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
MCDUFFIE...COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHEASTERN RICHMOND...
SOUTHERN SALUDA...EDGEFIELD...SOUTHEASTERN MCCORMICK...SOUTHWESTERN
LEXINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN AIKEN COUNTIES...

AT 952 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED IN NORTH
OF AUGUSTA INTO CENTRAL EDGEFIELD COUNTY... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM. PUBLIC REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AIKEN...NORTH AUGUSTA...GROVETOWN...EVANS...CLEARWATER...BELVEDERE...
AUGUSTA...FORT GORDON...MARTINEZ...EDGEFIELD...SALUDA...HARLEM...JOHNSTON...
RIDGE SPRING...GLOVERVILLE...BURNETTOWN...MONETTA...TRENTON...PARKSVILLE
AND WARD.

LAT...LON 3390 8214 3402 8180 3376 8135 3347 8183
      3338 8233 3360 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 235DEG 18KT 3357 8191

CJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             4 NW NORTH AUGUSTA      33.55N 82.00W
05/02/2016  E0.88 INCH       EDGEFIELD          SC   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL UNVERIFIED PUBLIC REPORTS OF HAIL OF
            DIME SIZE OR POSSIBLY LARGER.

&&

DCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             4 W EVANS               33.52N 82.22W
05/02/2016  E0.88 INCH       COLUMBIA           GA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC OF HAIL
            RANGING IN SIZE FROM PEA SIZE TO NICKEL
            SIZE, NEAR EVANS AND MARTINEZ. SOME
            UNVERIFIED REPORTS OF HAIL LARGER THAN
            NICKEL SIZE.

&&

DCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1040 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ018-025-030-030330-
MCDUFFIE-LINCOLN-COLUMBIA-MCCORMICK-EDGEFIELD-AIKEN-
1040 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MCDUFFIE...COLUMBIA...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHWESTERN EDGEFIELD...EASTERN MCCORMICK AND
NORTHWESTERN AIKEN COUNTIES...

AT 1039 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THOMSON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EVANS...THOMSON...MARTINEZ...MCCORMICK...LINCOLNTON...DEARING...PARKSVILLE...
PLUM BRANCH...MODOC...MURPHYS ESTATES AND CLARKS HILL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3361 8263 3364 8261 3363 8258 3365 8258
      3364 8256 3364 8252 3366 8251 3365 8249
      3374 8254 3398 8219 3363 8187 3335 8255
      3341 8255 3346 8259 3360 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 249DEG 32KT 3361 8238

CJR

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