Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
252 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DRYING WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
VALUES REACHING 2000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH MUCAPE AS HIGH AS
3000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WESTERN MIDLANDS AND INTO THE CSRA AS NEW
STORMS FIRE NEAR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND BEGIN TO MERGE
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING AS
STORMS DEVELOP ON THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE. CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
DESPITE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UPPER FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF
TRAINING STORMS WHICH COULD POSE A FLOODING THREAT WITH TIME AND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

CONVECTION LIKELY TO CARRY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT AND UPPER FORCING ARRIVING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS SURROUNDED BY A LARGER MARGINAL RISK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SOUTH AND EASTWARD AS
IT MOVES APPROACHES THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE
AREA PLUS THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS ALL OF THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE MODERATE INSTABILITY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW
TOTALS VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 TUESDAY. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. BELIEVE THESE
STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED BUT POTENTIAL EXIST. GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT FOR CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY
WITH LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUAL DECLINE INTO
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALSO HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND HAVE STAYED WITH CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF A SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW FAR
SOUTHWARD CLOSED LOW WILL PROGRESS. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH H5
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -20 C TO -25 C COULD HELP SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL MAINLY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD BE A FACTOR FRIDAY...JUST DEPENDS ON SPEED AND POSITION OF
CLOSED LOW. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE TEMPERATURES
MUCH BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND MODERATION BEGINNING
SATURDAY THEN RISING TO AT/ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WILL IMPACT
AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB WITH AT LEAST SOME VICINITY THUNDER AND POSSIBLE
MVFR RESTRICTIONS. STORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A POSSIBLE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION 04Z-08Z ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT CAE/CUB BUT INCLUDING A BRIEF PERIOD AT
OGB/AGS/DNL. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
SUNSET THEN DIMINISHING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
ALSO...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
248 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-030915-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
248 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
416 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIDGEWAY                34.31N 80.96W
05/02/2016                   FAIRFIELD          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN OLD HWY 21 IN RIDGEWAY

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
421 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             10 NNE RIDGEWAY         34.44N 80.88W
05/02/2016  E1.00 INCH       FAIRFIELD          SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT SUTTONS
            LANDING ON THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE WATEREE.

&&

DCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
453 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             8 NE ELGIN              34.74N 80.61W
05/02/2016  E0.75 INCH       LANCASTER          SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FLOOD            6 NE ELGIN              34.74N 80.66W
05/02/2016                   LANCASTER          SC   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERING ROADWAY / ROADWAY FLOODING
            HWY 9 E OF LANCASTER

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
508 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LANCASTER               34.73N 80.78W
05/02/2016                   LANCASTER          SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN LANCASTER. WOODLAND
            DRIVE AND OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

DA

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