Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Columbia, SC

057 
WWUS52 KCAE 302248
SVSCAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
548 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

SCC039-071-302330-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-161130T2330Z/
FAIRFIELD SC-NEWBERRY SC-
548 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EST
FOR NORTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD AND NEWBERRY COUNTIES...

AT 548 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NEWBERRY...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWBERRY...WHITMIRE...POMARIA AND SILVERSTREET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8127 3431 8111 3418 8176 3433 8182
      3437 8178 3453 8164 3449 8157 3445 8154
      3449 8149 3450 8142 3457 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 252DEG 36KT 3428 8156 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AWP

297 
WWUS52 KCAE 302312
SVSCAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
612 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

SCC039-071-302330-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-161130T2330Z/
FAIRFIELD SC-NEWBERRY SC-
612 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EST
FOR NORTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD AND NORTHEASTERN NEWBERRY COUNTIES...

AT 611 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF
WINNSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POMARIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8127 3431 8111 3424 8145 3435 8146
      3437 8145 3444 8147 3450 8142 3457 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 246DEG 30KT 3436 8135 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AWP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
428 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will cross the area this evening.
Breezy conditions are expected today ahead of the front. Near
record high temperatures today will lower to near normal for
Thursday behind the cold front. Another weather system will bring
a chance of showers Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of mid-afternoon, water vapor imagery depicts a deep plume of
Gulf moisture streaming into the region in the southwest flow
between a closed upper low over the upper Mississippi Valley and a
strong ridge centered over the Caribbean. Meanwhile, a strong
cold front extending from central KY/TN through western AL continues
to move eastward.

Radar imagery shows the upstream convection in the form of a
QLCS, with some discrete cells in advance of it. Some of the
isolated discrete cells could shift into the area by mid-
afternoon, but the convection associated with the QLCS should
enter far western portions of the forecast area around or just
prior to 5 pm based on the latest storm-motions. The QLCS is then
expected to move eastward but weaken as it moves through the
central Midlands, parts of the CSRA and points farther east as the
upper level support starts to shift northward into the southern
Mid-Atlantic region.

The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has the
western Midlands and upper CSRA in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms, with the rest of the forecast area in a marginal
risk. A potent low level jet, with winds reaching as high as 50-60
kt, will shift over the area ahead of the front. This will result
in strong, mainly uni-directional shear based on forecast model
soundings. SHERB values also reach upwards of 1 to 1.2 across
parts of the western Midlands and upper CSRA. While the shear is
very favorable for severe weather, the biggest limiting factor
will be the lack of any significant instability. However, as
daytime temperatures ahead of the front reach into the mid 70s to
around 80, there could be just enough instability to support
severe thunderstorms within a high shear, low CAPE environment.
While the primary threat will be damaging winds, there is also the
potential for isolated tornadoes, especially if surface winds back
ahead of the front and/or if there are any broken or bowing line
segments within the QLCS. Locally heavy rainfall could occur with
precipitable water values rising to 1.5 to 1.75 inches, but the
threat for flooding is limited given the progressive nature of the
band of convection.

Breezy conditions are also expected ahead of the front, but
extensive cloud cover his limited mixing somewhat. However, where
breaks in the clouds occur, a few gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph is
possible.

Models are in good agreement showing the actual cold front moving
through late this evening into the early overnight hours, and as
it does so precipitation will quickly come to an end in its wake.
Linger cloud cover could keep temperatures from falling
significantly tonight, with lows in the 50s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquil weather expected for the end of the week as surface high
pressure builds into the region Thursday in the wake of the
exiting cold front. Some clouds early in the day Thursday will
shift east by midday and mostly clear skies expected late
Thursday through Friday. Atmospheric moisture will be quite
limited as precipitable water values fall to less than a half
inch. 500mb flow becomes zonal across the southeastern states
with little in the way of disturbances moving into the region
which will provide rain free conditions.

Temperatures on Thursday will remain above normal behind the
front with highs in the 60s as the cooler air lags a bit but will
move into the region Thursday night. Lows will fall into the
upper 30s to around 40 Thursday night. Friday will be cooler with
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s while lows Friday night will
again be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, although there is some
uncertainty with how cold it may get as some higher clouds may be
arriving from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There still remain some significant differences among the medium
range models regarding the handling of southern stream shortwave
energy moving eastward from the desert southwest into the lower
Mississippi Valley and possible affecting the area during the
Sunday to Wednesday time frame. The GFS shows a deepening western
upper trough Saturday with a closed low developing over southern
Baja while some of the shortwave energy continues to move across
the Plains and dampening as it crosses the Carolinas on Sunday.
This is followed by more energy digging into the western states
and ejecting the closed low northeastward into an open wave
moving through the middle of the country Monday into Tuesday with
some upper ridging over the southeast, though with plenty of
moisture in place.

The ECMWF is more progressive with the southwestern upper low and
brings it across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states Sunday
and crosses our area on Monday. Given the uncertainty and low
confidence in timing will plan to lean towards the WPC guidance
and persistence keeping chances of rain in the forecast through
much of the extended forecast period, though there are likely to
be some periods of little or no precipitation.

High temperatures through the period are expected to be near to
slightly below normal with highs in the 50s to lower 60s while low
temperatures will be near normal Sat/Sun nights then becoming
above normal next week due to extensive clouds and precipitation
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main near term concern will be band of showers and thunderstorms
moving east across the forecast area through this evening. Some
weakening in the activity is possible as the line moves east, but
there is a threat for low VSBYS in heavy rain and strong gusty winds
with the passage of the line. Models are in agreement with the cold
front and associated convection moving east of the TAF sites late
this evening, with diminishing winds and VFR conditions returning to
the area by late tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A storm system will bring Gulf
moisture and related restrictions on Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-012000-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
249 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND UPPER CSRA...ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
521 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ018-025-026-030-302300-
MCDUFFIE-LINCOLN-RICHMOND-COLUMBIA-MCCORMICK-SALUDA-EDGEFIELD-AIKEN-
521 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
MCDUFFIE...COLUMBIA... LINCOLN...NORTHERN RICHMOND...WESTERN
SALUDA...EDGEFIELD...MCCORMICK AND NORTHWESTERN AIKEN COUNTIES...

AT 518 PM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH AUGUSTA...EVANS...THOMSON...MARTINEZ...BELVEDERE...EDGEFIELD...
SALUDA...MCCORMICK...JOHNSTON...LINCOLNTON...DEARING...TRENTON...
PARKSVILLE...WARD...PLUM BRANCH...MODOC...MURPHYS ESTATES...CLARKS
HILL AND WILLINGTON.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3393 8262 3401 8232 3397 8230 3402 8225
      3397 8218 3398 8205 3395 8204 3396 8202
      3411 8189 3413 8182 3362 8166 3339 8251
      3364 8256 3366 8251 3365 8249 3382 8259
      3386 8257 3386 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 241DEG 55KT 3363 8246

AWP