Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Columbia, SC

469 
WWUS52 KCAE 202031
SVSCAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
431 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

SCC025-202045-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-160720T2045Z/
CHESTERFIELD SC-
431 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD COUNTY...

AT 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED BETWEEN PATRICK
AND SOCIETY HILL...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOCIETY HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 7983 3453 7983 3453 7984 3449 7988
      3449 7997 3450 7999 3449 8003 3449 8006
      3455 8000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 022DEG 21KT 3451 7993 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
232 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level trough over the East Coast will shift farther east
tonight as a weakening cold front remains over the region through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cumulus have begun to develop across the forecast area...however
with the weakening cold front stretched across the eastern
Midlands and central CSRA development is currently limited. WV
imagery shows drier air aloft has moved into much of the forecast
area with cumulus currently struggling to reach towering stage. As
temperatures rise into the middle and upper 90s this afternoon
expected more development and some thunderstorms to develop. Main
area will be over the eastern Midlands and CSRA closer to the
frontal remains. Convection will diminish with sunset...however
the NAM model indicated activity increasing this evening as a
shortwave moves into the area and interacts with the front.
Believe this solution is overdone and have remained with slight
chance pops this evening into early tonight with all activity
expected to end by midnight. Temperatures overnight will again be
in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough along the East Coast will push further east on
Thursday as a massive upper ridge expands over the center of the
country. The diffuse frontal boundary will be south of the region
Thursday with high pressure ridging into the area at the surface.
High pressure will shift slightly east on Friday as lee-side
troughing develops. The deepest moisture will be in the southern
portion of the area for Thursday so have continued to indicate
chance pops in the CSRA and southeastern Midlands and slight
chance further north. Precipitable water values across the area on
Friday are forecast to drop below 1.5 inches, which is normal for
late July. This in addition to subsidence from the ridge should
limit convective activity so have maintained only slight chance
pops. Lower to middle 90s expected for Thursday and slightly
warmer temperatures on Friday as the ridge expands east over the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main forecasting concern in the long term is the heat over the
weekend. An upper ridge over the center of the country will build
eastward while a lee trough sits over the area at the surface.
This pattern will promote temperatures in/near the triple digits
Saturday and Sunday. Peak heat indices are generally expected to
be around 105 to 109 on Saturday and closer to 110 on Sunday. A
heat advisory may be needed as we head into the weekend. Moisture
will increase Saturday and Sunday with precipitable water values
returning to near 1.9 inches. Strong heating combined with
convergence into the trough and moderate instability will promote
diurnal convection, although the upper ridge may cap convection.
The upper ridge will begin to weaken early next week which should
lead to increased thunderstorm chances and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Cumulus have been slow to develop as the weakening cold front
remains stretched across the OGB to AGS/DNL area. With additional
heating this afternoon expect some thunderstorms to
develop...however confidence in coverage remains low so have
remained with VCTS at OGB/AGS/DNL from 20z through 21/01z. Storms
will again have the potential to produce strong and damaging wind
gusts. Thunderstorms will diminish with sunset with potential for
early morning for the next concern. Fog threat currently remains
low...however much will depend on rainfall. As such have remained
without mention of early morning fog and will continue to
monitor.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in afternoon and
evening convection Wednesday and Thursday...with lower chances
Friday through Sunday. Potential for early morning
fog/stratus...mainly AGS/OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
335 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-210915-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
335 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD POSSIBLY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1010 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW PATRICK            34.55N 80.07W
07/20/2016                   CHESTERFIELD       SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CHESTERFIELD HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT REPORTED
            TREES BLOCKING THE ROADWAY ON OUSLEYDALE RD.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

HC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

SCZ016-202015-
CHESTERFIELD-
359 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY...

AT 359 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CHERAW...MOVING SOUTH
AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHERAW AND SOCIETY HILL.

LAT...LON 3460 7981 3453 7983 3453 7984 3449 7988
      3449 7997 3450 7998 3450 7999 3468 7998
      3470 7987 3467 7985 3465 7980 3462 7979
      3462 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 351DEG 13KT 3463 7988