Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
928 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across the area tonight.
Otherwise, weak ridging will prevail aloft into the weekend. The
ridging should also help make temperatures a few degrees hotter
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
After another day with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low
100s clouds have generally cleared...however upstream convection
continues marching out of TN and into the upstate. Instability
remains high across the area as temperatures remain in the upper
80s to lower 90s and pwat values around 2 inches. Thunderstorms
which move into the forecast area of develop along outflow
boundaries will have to potential to tap into some dry air aloft
and create damaging winds...similar to the past couple of days.
Highest potential will again be from the central Midlands through
the northern Midlands and Pee Dee. With lingering convective debris
overnight lows will generally be in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Additional diurnal convection will be possible both Saturday and
Sunday, with a better chance on Sunday. Overnight lows for
Saturday night will be mostly in the middle to upper 70s. It will
be very hot during the afternoon, with the west flow ahead of an
approaching cold front and the upper ridging. Have continued to
forecast temperatures just above the guidance based on the recent
bias and this hot pattern. Expect heat index values close to the
heat advisory criteria of 110 Saturday especially across the
southern Midlands and portions of the CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heat index values remain just below heat advisory criteria of 110
Monday. The GFS display the front stalled close to the area
through Wednesday. Few changes to the forecasted temperatures
later in the extended period, but max temps tend a lower a bit to
the middle to upper 90s due to some erosion of the upper ridge
over the southeast. Only relief from the afternoon heat may come
in the way of isolated or scattered diurnal convection each day.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through most of the taf period.
However...lines of convection stretching from the Upstate into North
Carolina will continue to push southeast this evening through
midnight. Have added vcts to tafs at CAE/CUB/OGB during the late
evening hours through about midnight as this activity could hold
together and affect the central Midlands. Otherwise...models
indicate a low level around 20 to 25 kts which will help keep winds
up across the area. Expect winds from the west around 4 to 8 knots
overnight. Do not expect much fog formation toward morning with
mixing.

On Saturday...expect more scattered cu by midday and winds from the
west southwest/west at around 10 to 12 knots with higher gusts by
18z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnal
convection each afternoon along with late night/early morning
patchy fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-092345-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
738 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 100S IN MANY AREAS.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.