Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across the area tonight.
Otherwise, weak ridging will prevail aloft into the weekend. The
ridging should also help make temperatures a few degrees hotter
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Late this afternoon...the atmosphere remains fairly well capped
with weak subsidence in place in wake of an upper level
disturbance shifting off the southeast U.S. coast. Rather strong
surface heating under mostly sunny skies has allowed temperatures
to soar into the upper 90s to around 100 across most of the area,
with the exception of the northern Midlands where temperatures
remain in the mid 90s. Dewpoints have mixed out into the 60s
across most of the northern and central Midlands. However,
dewpoints have remained elevated across the CSRA and southern
Midlands, and as a result heat index values in several locations
have reached around 110 degrees. As a result, a heat advisory will
remain in effect for these areas through 7 pm this evening.

Given the subsidence in place, showers and thunderstorms have yet
to develop. However, most of the high resolution mesoscale models
show a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the
west-northwest this evening ahead of potent short wave disturbance
shifting out of the southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. As the
cap breaks with the approach of the upper disturbance, the strong
instability in place (surface based CAPE values of 2500-4000 J/kg)
will be realized as some of the thunderstorms become severe. The
greatest potential for severe weather appears to be across the
northern and central Midlands where the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk, however even farther south isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible within the Marginal Risk area. The primary hazard will
be damaging wind gusts upwards of 70 mph given an inverted-V
sounding and decent wind fields aloft. Also, excessive cloud-to-
ground lightning will also be a concern. The showers and
thunderstorms should then shift east toward the coast during the
overnight hours, with just lingering debris cloudiness in place.
Lows will generally be in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Additional diurnal convection will be possible both Saturday and
Sunday, with a better chance on Sunday. Overnight lows for
Saturday night will be mostly in the middle to upper 70s. It will
be very hot during the afternoon, with the west flow ahead of an
approaching cold front and the upper ridging. Have continued to
forecast temperatures just above the guidance based on the recent
bias and this hot pattern. Expect heat index values close to the
heat advisory criteria of 110 Saturday especially across the
southern Midlands and portions of the CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heat index values remain just below heat advisory criteria of 110
Monday. The GFS display the front stalled close to the area
through Wednesday. Few changes to the forecasted temperatures
later in the extended period, but max temps tend a lower a bit to
the middle to upper 90s due to some erosion of the upper ridge
over the southeast. Only relief from the afternoon heat may come
in the way of isolated or scattered diurnal convection each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 18Z Saturday.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
evening, but prefer to keep mention out of the TAF/s until
confidence in timing/coverage increases.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered diurnal thunderstorms.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening FOR SCZ018-025-030-
     035>038-041.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-092345-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
738 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 100S IN MANY AREAS.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
228 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SSW IRWIN             34.60N 80.87W
07/07/2016                   LANCASTER          SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND TREE TOPS DOWN ALONG 2 MILE
            STRETCH GREAT FALLS HWY AND CEDAR CREEK
            ROAD.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
256 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POMARIA                 34.27N 81.42W
07/07/2016                   NEWBERRY           SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE POMARIA AREA.

&&

DA