Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
845 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak pressure trough will linger near the forecast area.
Aloft...troughing today will be replaced by ridging Friday and
Saturday. The upper troughing will help increase thunderstorm
coverage today with convection suppressed because of the upper
ridging Friday and Saturday. The ridging should also help make
temperatures a few degrees hotter Friday and Saturday compared to
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms had moved east of the area...however
another short wave moving into the northern Midlands and Pee Dee
has generated another round of convection. These thunderstorms
area also reaching severe limits quickly with damaging winds and
reports of trees down. Expect the thunderstorms to continue
crossing the northern Midlands over the next couple of hours with
the potential for additional development into the central
Midlands as outflow boundaries intersect. Severe thunderstorm
watch 349 remains in effect through 11pm and with current scenario
will likely leave in place until that time.

Temperatures currently vary widely due to the rains across the
north with mostly clear conditions elsewhere. Current readings
range from the mid 70s along the NC line to the upper 80s and
lower 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows will generally be in the
middle to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Latest GFS showing rising 500 mb heights on the backside of the
departing shortwave through the day Friday, which should help
suppress convection through Friday night. Raised pops just a bit
but still below 20 percent Friday into Friday night. Model
consensus guidance indicating max temps Friday afternoon around
100 degrees. Heat index values still appear to remain between 105
and 108, which is just below the 110 degree threshold for any heat
advisory. Overnight lows Friday night remain in the upper 70s to
around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The thunderstorm chance should remain low Saturday because of
continued upper ridging. It will be very hot with the west flow
ahead of an approaching cold front and the upper ridging. Have
continue to forecast temperatures just above the guidance based on
the recent bias and this hot pattern. Expect heat index values
close to the heat advisory criteria of 110 Saturday through Monday.
The GFS display the front stalled close to the area Sunday
through Wednesday. Few changes to the forecasted temperatures
later in the extended period, but max temps tend to lower to more
normal values in the lower to middle 90s due to some erosion of
the upper ridge over the southeast. Only relief from the
afternoon heat may come in the way of isolated or scattered
diurnal convection each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions to dominate the period.

Convection continues across the northern Midlands with conditions
mostly clear across the taf sites. Potential for outflow
boundaries to intersect and generate convection over the next
couple of hours will be contained to CAE/CUB...however the
potential is currently too low to include. Fog threat overnight
will also remain too low to mention due to convective debris
across the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnal
convection each afternoon along with late night/early morning
patchy fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
421 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-025-030-035-036-041-082030-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-MCCORMICK-EDGEFIELD-AIKEN-
BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-BAMBERG-
421 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SOME
SEVERE...WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT, CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 105 AND
109 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ015-016-020>022-026>029-031-037-038-082030-
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-SUMTER-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
421 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SOME
SEVERE...WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT, CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 105 AND
109 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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