Special Weather Statement, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service BILLINGS MT
341 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Active forecast for the short term periods involving severe
weather potential, fire weather and even some minor air quality
issues. Current highlights involving Red Flag conditions for the
region will remain in place.

Ridging dominating at the moment, keeping an overall clear sky and
allowing temperatures to continue to heat up. A southwest flow
will develop across the region tonight as an upper low approaches
from the Pacific Northwest. Main question in the immediate short
term is potential thunderstorm development. A northern stream
short wave moving into western MT this afternoon could spark some
isolated storms into mainly areas northwest of Billings. The
threat is looking less at this time given limited moisture, but
any storms that do develop will have little moisture and an
increased fire threat. For far southeast MT its a different
story. A low level southeast flow continues to advect moisture
into that region. This aiding in CAPES of 1000-1500 pooling along
the boundary that currently stretches from about Forsyth to
Broadus. This boundary will shift slowly east with time overnight
with an increasing southwest flow. HRRR Continuing to hint at
storms for mainly Carter and Fallon Counties. Already getting some
development into Carter County. Any storm that forms in this
environment will likely turn strong with some hail and gusty
winds. Even localized heavy rainfall is possible with these
storms as PWATs exceeding an inch in that region. We could even
see an isolated storm linger into the morning hours on Wednesday.

Upper low moves across southern Canada during the day tomorrow
with an associated cold front sweeping through MT and WY. This cold
front moves through the region late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front and
increase in speeds. Strongest winds will actually occur during max
heating/mixing in the afternoon and evening on Wednesday.
Strongest winds should be in areas from about Billings westward
with gusts to 40 mph. Eastern areas will still be gusty but not
quite as strong. Everyone will experience winds high enough for
heightened fire behaviors as relative humidities bottom out into
the teens once again.

Finally, we could see some decreasing air quality conditions into
south central MT late this afternoon and into the evening. The
increasing southwest flow ahead of the approachig front will
likely begin to advect some hazy/smokey conditions into region
until front passes overnight. Frieders

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Little in the way of changes for the extended forecast period...as
models remain in pretty good agreement...at least to start the
period.

Dry conditions will prevail Friday under upper level
ridge...but give way to southwest flow ahead of the next
approaching system friday night. Southwest flow remains in place
through early next week...bringing potential for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening...with some lingering chances
overnight. Model differences in timing of shortwaves through the
region limit any finer detail forecasting...so have stayed with
broad brushed type pops...while trending upward.

Temps will remain slightly above normal through the bulk of the
period...but mainly around 90 across the region most days. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are developing East of a line from KSHR to
KMLS...with some capable of producing small hail and strong gusty
winds. Some may become severe through the evening. MVFR to IFR
conditions in and near any thunderstorm. Otherwise, vfr conditions
will prevail this evening and overnight. Isold storms are also
possible over western routes, with gusty winds as the main
concern. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/087 054/083 057/088 061/089 061/091 061/089 058/086
    20/N    00/U    01/B    23/T    32/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/083 046/085 048/086 052/089 052/088 051/086 049/083
    21/N    00/U    01/B    23/T    32/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 063/089 051/085 054/092 062/091 060/094 061/091 058/088
    21/N    00/U    01/B    23/T    32/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 066/087 057/083 058/092 064/088 063/091 066/091 061/087
    22/T    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 068/089 055/084 057/091 062/088 061/092 063/092 060/088
    22/T    10/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 062/087 053/081 054/087 059/085 059/088 061/088 058/085
    32/T    10/U    01/U    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 060/092 050/085 052/090 057/088 056/092 057/090 054/087
    21/U    00/U    01/B    23/T    32/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect until midnight MDT Wednesday night
      FOR ZONES 123>129.
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight
      MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONES 130>133.
WY...Red Flag Warning in effect until midnight MDT Wednesday night
      FOR ZONE 284.
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight
      MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONE 274.

&&

weather.gov/billings

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
240 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

MTZ031>033-036-037-031000-
NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-FALLON-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
240 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF YOUR
SURROUNDINGS AND MOVE TO SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE
TEENS. AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT COULD PROMOTE SPARKS AND NEW FIRE
STARTS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
635 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

WYZ099-030130-
SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS WY-
635 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 634 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR RANCHESTER TO 6 MILES NORTH OF FORT PHIL
KEARNY HISTORICAL SITE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHERIDAN...RANCHESTER...DAYTON...BIG HORN...CLEARMONT...ARVADA...
UCROSS...LEITER AND BANNER.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4485 10730 4500 10718 4499 10603 4456 10601
      4456 10686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 214DEG 40KT 4487 10718 4462 10682

ARTHUR

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