Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Billings, MT

852 
WWUS55 KBYZ 212031
SVSBYZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
231 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

MTC009-095-212100-
/O.CON.KBYZ.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160521T2100Z/
STILLWATER MT-CARBON MT-
231 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL STILLWATER AND NORTH CENTRAL CARBON COUNTIES...

AT 227 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
LAUREL...OR 15 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WAS REPORTED IN
         COLUMBUS AT 2:05 PM AND IN JOLIET AT 2:25PM. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...JOLIET...FROMBERG...SILESIA...
COONEY RESERVOIR STATE PARK...ROCKVALE...EDGAR...ROBERTS...
BOYD AND PARK CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4530 10925 4557 10943 4567 10927 4581 10903
      4537 10870 4531 10899
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 236DEG 30KT 4568 10895 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GILSTAD

960 
WWUS55 KBYZ 212056
SVSBYZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

MTC009-095-212106-
/O.EXP.KBYZ.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160521T2100Z/
STILLWATER MT-CARBON MT-
256 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL STILLWATER AND
NORTH CENTRAL CARBON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM MDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4530 10925 4557 10943 4567 10927 4581 10903
      4537 10870 4531 10899
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 236DEG 30KT 4568 10895 

$$

GILSTAD

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1139 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Will update to remove severe wording from Fallon and Carter
Counties where cap will be too strong to break through the
evening. Also will remove severe from areas W of KBIL due to thick
persistent cloud cover. Arthur

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...
Upper low over Oregon will finally start to shift northeast today
tracking into southern Alberta by tomorrow morning. Height falls
will induce broad scale lift across our region with progs also
indicating decent frontogenesis pushing from west to east across
our CWA. Ahead of this system southeasterly surface winds will
increase over southeast Montana keeping dewpoints relatively high
for this time of year in the upper 40s to mid 50s across our
eastern zones. Combined with good heating ahead of the frontal
push this will mean good mucape across our eastern zones along the
line of 2000 j/kg. Shear profiles will increase as well by evening
in the east as surface front is pushed through. We have been
talking about this for a few days...and now the stage looks set
for potential super cell development in our east. I have also
added a mention of strong storms with small hail and strong winds
across areas west/northwest of Billings earlier in the afternoon
due to good lift and frontogenesis.

Once all this activity pushes through our region we will be under
a drier air mass on Sunday. However, the general flow will be
cyclonic and unstable due to a broad scale trough over the
western CONUS. So we will continue to mention some garden variety
thunderstorms (more like thundershowers) for Sunday. Temperatures
will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler Sunday. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
The weather next week continues to look unsettled. A chance of
showers and afternoon-evening thunderstorms exists each day as
numerous disturbances should move through the largely cyclonic
flow over the western U.S. There is some chance for more organized
rain from compact upper lows--one to our west and another to our
east--later in the week, as shown on the 00z ECMWF, but confidence
in this scenario is low given the long lead time and model
differences.

Temperatures should be near seasonal normals throughout the
period. RMS/BT
&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings will continue through
18z west of a Roundup to Billings line. Isolated showers and
possibly a thunderstorm is also possible across this area this
morning. Further east very gusty southeast winds will continue
east of a Miles City to Broadus line with occasional gusts to
42kts in the KBHK vicinity through the day.

This afternoon will see convection increase with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Convection will be most widespread west of
Billings and in a N-S line in the Rosebud county vicinity. A few
strong to possibly severe storms are possible with large hail the
main threat. MVFR to local IFR conditions in heavy rain can be
expected near any convection this afternoon into the late evening
hours. Chambers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 046/067 044/068 044/068 047/068 047/069 048/070
    3/T 32/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 063 039/058 039/060 038/062 040/064 040/065 040/066
    6/T 23/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 079 045/071 042/070 044/070 048/070 048/071 050/072
    2/T 32/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 086 052/073 047/072 047/071 050/071 050/071 050/072
    2/T 52/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 085 049/072 042/071 044/071 048/069 047/069 048/071
    3/T 53/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 075 049/073 042/070 045/070 047/069 047/068 048/069
    2/T 53/T    22/T    12/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 079 042/067 038/066 041/066 043/065 043/066 044/066
    2/T 22/T    13/T    32/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
339 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-212345-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIGHORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
339 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS TO
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATER TODAY...MAINLY EAST OF
A FORSYTH TO SHERIDAN LINE. THE MAIN THREATS THERE WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD A STORM APPROACH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO BILLINGS AS
WELL TODAY. THOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT AS GREAT AS IN THE
EAST...SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

ONE MORE THING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COMBINE WITH
ONGOING MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT TO CAUSE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO
RISE THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...PLEASE BE MINDFUL OF RISING WATER LEVELS AND FASTER FLOWS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
103 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

MTZ041-066-211930-
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS MT-NORTHERN SWEET GRASS MT-
103 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 100 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES EAST OF BIG TIMBER...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREYCLIFF AND MELVILLE.

LAT...LON 4605 10960 4604 10957 4572 10967 4573 10993
      4612 10997 4613 10961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 183DEG 35KT 4580 10980

CHAMBERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
109 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     HAIL             GREYCLIFF               45.76N 109.79W
05/21/2016  M0.50 INCH       SWEET GRASS        MT   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER CALLED TO REPORT HAIL ON I-90 AT GREYCLIFF.

&&

LD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
142 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

MTZ034-038-039-041-056-066-067-212045-
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS MT-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS MT-
RED LODGE FOOTHILLS MT-EASTERN CARBON MT-NORTHERN SWEET GRASS MT-
NORTHERN STILLWATER MT-SOUTHERN BIG HORN MT-
142 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 139 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ABSAROKEE TO NEAR CLARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RED LODGE...COLUMBUS...BRIDGER...JOLIET...FROMBERG...ABSAROKEE...
BEARCREEK...BELFRY...FISHTAIL...ROBERTS...WASHOE...WARREN...
REED POINT...COONEY RESERVOIR STATE PARK...FOX AND BOYD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ALSO OCCURRING
WITH THESE STORMS.

IF ON OR NEAR COONEY RESERVOIR...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 10917 4567 10976 4603 10942 4502 10852
      4500 10862
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 235DEG 29KT 4561 10971 4496 10912

GILSTAD