Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Billings, MT

228 
WWUS85 KBYZ 312139
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
339 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

MTZ123>125-127-128-010600-
/O.CON.KBYZ.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160801T0600Z/
GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST-WHEATLAND COUNTY/SWEET GRASS COUNTY-
STILLWATER COUNTY-GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY/MUSSELSHELL COUNTY-
YELLOWSTONE COUNTY-
339 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* IMPACTS: LOW HUMIDITIES...HOT TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS
  SHIFTING WITH A COLD FRONT...AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
  AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CREATE ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR AND
  NEW FIRE STARTS.

* AFFECTED AREA: 
   IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 123...124...125...
                                            127 AND 128.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
   IN CENTRAL MT...GOLDEN VALLEY...MUSSELSHELL...WHEATLAND.
   IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT...PARK...STILLWATER...SWEET GRASS
                         YELLOWSTONE.
   IN SOUTHWEST MT...GALLATIN.

* COLD FRONT: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS 
  EVENING WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

* WIND: WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...BECOMING NORTH
  BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 

* THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE 
  AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

* HUMIDITY: 5 TO 15 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES: 95 TO 102.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

768 
WWUS85 KBYZ 010320
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
920 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

MTZ123>125-127-128-010430-
/O.CAN.KBYZ.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160801T0600Z/
GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST-WHEATLAND COUNTY/SWEET GRASS COUNTY-
STILLWATER COUNTY-GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY/MUSSELSHELL COUNTY-
YELLOWSTONE COUNTY-
920 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
UP OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THUS...THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
340 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

Prefrontal conditions today with hot temps and low humidity.
A surface trough will develop over our eastern zones with a good
deal of MUCAPE to the east. Models generally push the surface
trough east to the Dakota border this afternoon. We expect to see
strong to severe thunderstorms develop on this convergent
feature late today. We will leave the mention of severe storms in
Carter and Fallon counties for awareness...but prog trends suggest
the highest potential for a severe threat is east of the stateline
in the Dakotas. In the meantime, increasing SW flow will tap some
monsoonal moisture to the south and push short wave energy across
our CWA. We anticipate convection starting in the mountains by
mid-afternoon and pushing out onto the plains by evening. Some of
this may linger well into the night east of Billings. We do not
expect any of this activity to be very strong as MUCAPE and
helcity will be quite low.

Cold front is progged to move through Billings around 900 pm, and
the remainder of the region overnight shifting winds from westerly
to northerly for several hours. Weak return flow on Monday will
mean cooler temps and less instability with a better capped
environment. Thus, have kept PoPs at zero to start the work week.
BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Models remain consistent through the extended period. The main
impact period with the extended will be a strong frontal passage
during the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning timeframe.

Current forecast has things covered well so very little changes
were made with this issuance. An upper low and trough will be over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday resulting in a southwest flow aloft
across our forecast area. A few disturbances within the flow will
bring a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday
afternoon and evening. At the same time, a surface low over
Wyoming will bringing an easterly surface wind which may hold
temperatures down a few degrees from previous thinking. However,
we can't rule out some compressional warming ahead of the front so
Tuesday still looks to be the hottest day in the extended period
with temperatures well into the 90s. Winds will shift abruptly
and be gusty from the northwest then north Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning behind the front.

Gusty northwest winds will continue Wednesday but temperatures
will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler with readings at or slightly
below normal in the middle to upper 80s. Dry conditions are
expected Thursday and Friday with seasonal temperatures Thursday.
Temperatures return back into the 90s Friday into next weekend
along with a chance for thunderstorms. Hooley
&&

.AVIATION...

Skies will be mostly sunny with no widespread aviation hazards
expected. An isolated shower or thunderstorm and associated MVFR
condition will be possible. A strong to severe thunderstorm is
possible across the far east in the vicinity of the Dakota borders
this afternoon into this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail today. Hooley
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 097 061/090 060/096 062/086 055/085 057/091 061/091
    1/U 20/U    02/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
LVM 097 048/091 050/096 051/083 045/085 048/090 051/089
    1/U 10/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
HDN 100 059/091 056/098 060/088 051/086 057/093 059/093
    1/U 30/U    02/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
MLS 099 065/091 061/098 065/087 056/084 060/093 064/092
    2/W 20/U    02/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 100 064/092 061/099 066/088 055/086 059/093 063/091
    2/W 20/U    02/T    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 098 061/089 055/094 063/086 053/082 057/089 059/087
    2/T 21/U    02/T    22/T    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 098 057/092 056/098 058/088 050/087 054/092 056/089
    2/W 20/U    02/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
436 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

MTZ033-037-010045-
FALLON-CARTER-
436 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MONTANA
AND DAKOTA BORDER REGION TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE. PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE SKY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE BEARTOOTHS LATE
TODAY AND SPREAD TO THE NEARBY PLAINS BY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING WITHOUT MUCH RAINFALL. IF YOU
OBSERVE FIRE STARTS PLEASE CONTACT LOCAL AUTHORITIES QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE TAKE
CARE NOT TO CREATE SPARKS...AND CHECK WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS
BEFORE DOING ANY BURNING.