Alert archive / New York / Winter Weather Advisories in 2016

Winter Weather Advisory 9, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 24, 2016Cattaraugus County, Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter weather advisory at Feb 24, 2016, 3:51 PM EST for Cattaraugus County, Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York. It took effect at Feb 25, 2016, 6:00 AM EST. It was in force for 25 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 24, 2016, 3:51 PM EST (20:51 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 25, 2016, 6:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 26, 2016, 6:37 AM EST
In force
25 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-02-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-02-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 310 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
516 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
310 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
447 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

216 
WWUS41 KBUF 242051
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ008-242200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160224T2100Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
351 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

$$

NYZ019-020-085-250500-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.160225T1100Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
351 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY
TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.
  GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND
  CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY...1 TO 3 INCHES 
  THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM 
  TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY. LOWS 10 TO 15 
  THURSDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES...CREATING SLICK
  SPOTS AND INCREASING THE DIFFICULTY IN DRIVING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ007-250000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
351 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
  OF AN INCH THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON
  UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

THOMAS
8 follow-up statements
806 
WWUS41 KBUF 242350
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
650 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ007-250100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
650 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO WILL ALLOW THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

$$

NYZ019-020-085-250800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.160225T1100Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
650 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY
TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS 
  COUNTIES. GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
  BOSTON HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY...1 TO 3 INCHES 
  THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM 
  TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES...CREATING 
  SLICK SPOTS AND INCREASING THE DIFFICULTY IN DRIVING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

APFFEL
910 
WWUS41 KBUF 250227
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
927 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ019-020-085-251030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.160225T1100Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
927 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY
TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS 
  COUNTIES. GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
  BOSTON HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THURSDAY...2 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY
  NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES...CREATING 
  SLICK SPOTS AND INCREASING THE DIFFICULTY IN DRIVING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

APFFEL
500 
WWUS41 KBUF 250855
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

NYZ019-020-085-251700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.160225T1100Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
355 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS
  COUNTIES...WITH THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
  BOSTON HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY AND 1 TO 2 INCHES
  TONIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A MILE OR TWO. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES...CREATING
  SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

JJR
823 
WWUS41 KBUF 251424
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
924 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

NYZ019-020-085-252230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
924 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS 
  COUNTIES...WITH THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED 
  ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY...1 TO 2 INCHES
  TONIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A MILE.  

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES...CREATING 
  SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

THOMAS
438 
WWUS41 KBUF 252040
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

NYZ019-020-085-260445-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
340 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS 
  COUNTIES...WITH THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED 
  ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...2 TO 3 INCHES
  TONIGHT LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...A MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES...CREATING 
  SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

THOMAS
428 
WWUS41 KBUF 260144
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
844 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

NYZ019-020-085-261045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
844 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS 
  COUNTIES...WITH THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED 
  ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN MOST
  PERSISTENT SNOWS OVERNIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES...CREATING 
  SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

APFFEL
406 
WWUS41 KBUF 260856
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
356 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

NYZ085-261000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160226T1200Z/
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
356 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE STEADIEST SNOWS HAVE EXITED THE REGION...THEREFORE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

NYZ019-020-261200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
356 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...WITH THE
  GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA
  RIDGE.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER INCH OR TWO.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES...CREATING 
  SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

JJR
509 
WWUS41 KBUF 261137
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

NYZ019-020-261245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
637 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAS 
ENDED...THEREFORE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

JJR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Feb 24, 1:11 PM EST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 24, 1:11 PM EST, 2 hours 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
111 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING OFF INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE ON THURSDAY. A
SOAKING RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON THURSDAY...LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...WHICH WILL THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM NOW NEAR SOUTHERN
INDIANA THIS LATE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING NORTHERN OHIO BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE THIS LATE MORNING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW JUST ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. HERE WE WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND PARTICULARLY THE VALLEYS OF LEWIS AND
JEFFERSON COUNTY COLD AIR AROUND FREEZING LINGERS. WILL EXTEND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEWIS THROUGH 4 PM...AND 7 PM FOR
JEFFERSON COUNTY WHERE THE COLD NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE SLV MAY
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH REPORTS OF UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE...BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO NEAR 4 TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ICE.

ONCE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS...FAIRLY STEADY RAIN WILL THEN PRETTY
MUCH CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...BEFORE TURNING MORE
PERIODIC IN NATURE TONIGHT...AS THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LOW LEVEL JET-DRIVEN FORCING PASSES OFF TO OUR NORTH. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ITSELF WILL LIKELY COME BETWEEN TODAY AND THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF DEEP FORCING ATTENDANT TO THE PASSING
LOW LEVEL JET AND A REGION OF INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FOCUSING ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED OUT
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM LAKE ERIE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
DEVELOPING REGION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD ALSO LEAD TO
A DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO
ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH AND A HALF POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. AT PRESENT...RIVER FORECASTS FOR THE BUFFALO
CREEKS AND THE GENESEE RIVER SUGGEST THAT 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WOULD PUSH THEM INTO ACTION STAGE...WITH AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES
LIKELY REQUIRED TO PUSH THEM INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. GIVEN THESE...
HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT FRONT TODAY...WHILE READINGS
CLIMB INTO THE THE MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD
THEN RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES OR REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...UNTIL COLDER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK LATE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...A SOAKING RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...

DESPITE THE UNUSUAL NATURE OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...PRIMARILY AS MEASURED BY THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS (3 STD)
HGT AND MSLP FIELDS...OUR REGION WILL LIKELY GET BY RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED. THE TRACK OF THE SUB 985MB LOW WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK...WHICH WILL ACT LIKE AN EYE OF A
HURRICANE WHERE THE MORE IMPRESSIVE WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ON THE
PERIPHERIES. FOR EXAMPLE...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FIELD (INCLUDING A
NARROW SUB TROPICAL PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE) WILL BE DIRECTED
WELL TO OUR EAST WHERE RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES. THE EXPECTED
PATH OF THE STORM WILL ALSO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS...WHICH
COULD HAVE BEEN DAMAGING IF THE STORM TRACKED SOME 50 MILES FURTHER
WEST. THAT ALL BEING SAID...LETS BREAK DOWN THIS EVENT.

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FAIRLY RAPIDLY PUSH NORTHEAST TO QUEBEC DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY
AS ITS PHASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL 'OPEN UP'. ALL OF THE STRONG
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...INCLUDING STRONG H25 JET LIFT
AND IMPRESSIVE H925-70 FRONTOGENESIS...WILL SHIFT TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST IN THE PROCESS...LEAVING BEHIND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. THE
RESULT WILL BE THAT THE STEADY RAIN FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WILL
TAPER OFF TO RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE LIQUID PCPN CHANGING OVER TO A
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS NOTABLY COLDER AIR
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A
DEEPENING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITHIN A SLUG OF HIGH PWAT AIR THAT
WILL ROTATE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. WHILE IT IS SPLITTING HAIRS...
TRUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL WHEN
H85 TEMPS FURTHER DROP TO LESS THAN -10C. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE
INTENSITY OF THE AFTERNOON SNOW AND THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND FROM
THE PREVIOUS 48 HOURS...DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY RANGE
FROM A FEW INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND A GENERAL 1-2
INCHES OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TO LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER OUR
REGION...THE BULK OF THE MID AND LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL
STRIPPED AWAY. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SUPPORT FOR
THE LAKE SNOWS...WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. LAKE
DERIVED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE LIMITED TO A CAP IN THE VCNTY OF 5K
FT SNOW. ACCUMS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE BULK
OF THE REGION WITH MORE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND EAST OF
ROCHESTER. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S...VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.

WHILE THE NUISANCE LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...THEY WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS SFC RIDING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR SKIES...BUT
WITH -15C AIR STILL POURING OVER THE LARGELY OPEN WATERS OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...WE SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME STRATO-CU TO DEAL WITH.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY/THOUSAND ISLANDS
WHERE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF
THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING WILL NOSE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE STEERING FLOW TO BACK TO THE
WEST...PUSHING ANY WEAK LAKE SNOWS TOWARDS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN.
AGAIN...DUE THE DRY SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND LOW CAP...SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS.

AS THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL MODERATE H85 TEMPS
BY SOME 10 DEG. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN LINGERING LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF LK ERIE BY MIDDAY...WHILE AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE PCPN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL BY DAYBREAK. WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT WILL COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR AND PARTICULARLY EST OF LK ONTARIO WHILE THE MAJORITY
OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COUNTY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
GENERALLY SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY REAL WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE DURING THIS THREE DAY STRETCH
WILL BE A ROBUST CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY BEFORE PASSING BY TO
OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PASS
BY TO OUR NORTH...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
TO AT LEAST MIX THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME RAIN. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE A SIX HOUR PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE IT COULD
GET RATHER WINDY...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE USUAL WIND CORRIDOR FROM
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND THE IAG FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER.

CHILLIER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
FAVORING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION AS A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS IS DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO BE PREDOMINATE THROUGH 00Z-06Z...AFTER WHICH SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO
BRING LLWS INTO MOST OF THE TAFS THROUGH 00 TO 06Z.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND WILL INCLUDE A
VCTS WITHIN THE KROC AND KART TAFS WHERE IF ANY THUNDER DOES
OCCUR...THESE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELIEST OF AREAS.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AND COLDER AIR WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN THURSDAY MORNING
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE WINDS BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTIER AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES EASTWARD AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ENSUES. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AGAIN THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH AGAIN LOW
CIGS AND THEN LOWER VSBYS AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW THROUGH
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MVFR WITHIN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING NORTHERN
OHIO BY THIS EVENING BEFORE PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD ON LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL LARGELY TEND TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SOAKING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETWEEN 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH COULD IMPACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING. THERE IS STILL SOME
WATER LOCKED UP IN THE SNOW AND ICE IN THE BUFFALO CREEKS...
ALLEGHENY...AND GENESEE BASINS AND WARM TEMPERATURES COULD MELT
SOME OR ALL OF THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IS IN PLACE IN
THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...WHERE WARM TEMPERATURES COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
ADD TO RUNOFF DUE TO SNOW MELT. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FLOODING...BUT A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. IN
SHORT...IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS FORECAST MOST FORECAST POINTS WILL
CREST NEAR BUT JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT IF WE GET MORE RAIN OR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS LAST WEEKEND BROKE UP MUCH OF THE ICE ON BUFFALO CREEKS.
THIS WAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE HEADWATERS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE IN
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE CAYUGA/BUFFALO/CAZENOVIA CREEK BASINS NEAR
THE BUFFALO RIVER. THE ICE IS NOT TERRIBLY THICK...BUT IT DOES
BEAR WATCHING AS WATER LEVELS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THIS MID- WEEK
STORM. ICE JAMS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN OTHER BASINS...ESPECIALLY
IF RAINFALL OR TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-063.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 24, 11:09 AM EST, 4 hours 42 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1109 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ007-251615-
JEFFERSON-
1109 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ008-251615-
LEWIS-
1109 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085-251615-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
1109 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-044-045-064-065-251615-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
1109 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043-063-251615-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
1109 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042-062-251615-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
1109 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 24, 10:56 AM EST, 4 hours 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     FREEZING RAIN    PHILADELPHIA            44.15N  75.71W
02/24/2016  M0.20 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600764

JAM
Local storm report, Feb 24, 12:00 PM EST, 3 hours 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1200 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FREEZING RAIN    HERRINGS                44.02N  75.65W
02/24/2016  M0.10 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600765

JAM
Local storm report, Feb 24, 12:21 PM EST, 3 hours 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1221 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FREEZING RAIN    6 SW WARSAW             42.68N  78.22W
02/24/2016  M0.25 INCH       WYOMING            NY   COOP OBSERVER

            QUARTER INCH OF ICE ON THE HILLTOP...ELEVATION AROUND
            1700 FEET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600766

JAM
Special weather statement, Feb 24, 12:24 PM EST, 3 hours 27 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1224 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ003-011>014-020-021-242015-
ALLEGANY-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-LIVINGSTON-WYOMING-MONROE-GENESEE-
1224 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT LIVINGSTON...SOUTHERN GENESEE...
WYOMING...SOUTHERN MONROE...WESTERN ONTARIO...NORTHEASTERN
CATTARAUGUS AND NORTHERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

AT 1215 PM EST...PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS THROUGH 3 PM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED
MAY INCLUDE...BATAVIA...CANANDAIGUA...GENESEO...DANSVILLE...DARIEN
LAKES STATE PARK...LETCHWORTH STATE PARK...LE ROY...PEMBROKE...PERRY
AND WARSAW.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE HIGHER HILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...
WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
FREEZING LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

IF TRAVELING... WATCH FOR SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS...
ESPECIALLY AT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 390 BETWEEN EXITS 4 AND 11.
 INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN EXITS 48A AND 48...AND BETWEEN EXITS 45 AND
44.

LAT...LON 4253 7847 4254 7846 4302 7844 4303 7728
      4276 7730 4276 7732 4271 7735 4267 7737
      4258 7737 4258 7766 4253 7766 4253 7772
      4243 7773 4241 7848
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 240DEG 49KT 4275 7775

CHURCH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 24, 12:24 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFGenesee, Livingston, Ontario, Wyoming3 hr
Feb 24, 6:46 PM ESTFlood WatchBUFJefferson, Lewis15 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New York, 2016Every winter weather advisory in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.