Alert archive / New York / Winter Weather Advisories in 2016

Winter Weather Advisory 8, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 23, 201616 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter weather advisory at Feb 23, 2016, 3:49 AM EST for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 23, 2016, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 23, 2016, 3:49 AM EST (08:49 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 23, 2016, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 24, 2016, 6:50 PM EST
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2016-02-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2016-02-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 40 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1172 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
167 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

955 
WWUS41 KBUF 230849
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-231700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.160224T0000Z-160224T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
349 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING.

* HAZARDS...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING
  RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS
  TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ICE MIXING IN AT TIMES AND ACCUMULATING A
  TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND EARLY
  WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30 TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...A THIN WINTRY MIX WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS
  AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

SMITH
7 follow-up statements
916 
WWUS41 KBUF 231447
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-232300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.160224T0000Z-160224T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
947 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING.

* HAZARDS...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING 
  RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS 
  TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ICE MIXING IN AT TIMES AND ACCUMULATING 
  A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND EARLY 
  WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...A WINTRY MIX WILL CREATE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON
  UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$
355 
WWUS41 KBUF 232030
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-240430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.160224T0000Z-160224T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
330 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN NEW YORK.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
  AN INCH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 
  LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE A FEW SLICK SPOTS
  ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-240430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.160224T0000Z-160224T1600Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
330 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS. ICE
  ACCUMULATING UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 40 
  WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE A
  FEW SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$
526 
WWUS41 KBUF 240304
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1004 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-241115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160224T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1004 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN NEW YORK.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
  OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT...THEN
  RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE A FEW SLICK 
  SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-241115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160224T1600Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1004 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT. ICE
  ACCUMULATING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
  PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT...THEN RISING
  INTO THE MID 30S BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE A 
  FEW SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

APFFEL
719 
WWUS41 KBUF 240900
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-241600-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160224T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
400 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN NEW YORK.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE A FEW SLICK 
  SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-241600-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160224T1600Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
400 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* HAZARDS...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS THIS MORNING.
  ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE
  SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

JJR
410 
WWUS41 KBUF 241556
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ001>006-010>014-019>021-085-241700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160224T1600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1056 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

$$

NYZ008-242100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160224T2100Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
1056 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS TODAY. ICE 
  ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TODAY.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE 
  SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ007-250000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
1056 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER
  LONGEST THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH EARLY
  THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO ONE QUARTER OF
  AN INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH STORM TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION UP
  TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE 
  SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

THOMAS
216 
WWUS41 KBUF 242051
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ008-242200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160224T2100Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
351 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

$$

NYZ019-020-085-250500-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.160225T1100Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
351 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY
TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.
  GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND
  CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY...1 TO 3 INCHES 
  THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM 
  TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY. LOWS 10 TO 15 
  THURSDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES...CREATING SLICK
  SPOTS AND INCREASING THE DIFFICULTY IN DRIVING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ007-250000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
351 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
  OF AN INCH THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON
  UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

THOMAS
806 
WWUS41 KBUF 242350
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
650 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

NYZ007-250100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160225T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
650 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO WILL ALLOW THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

$$

NYZ019-020-085-250800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.160225T1100Z-160226T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
650 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY
TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS 
  COUNTIES. GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
  BOSTON HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY...1 TO 3 INCHES 
  THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM 
  TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES...CREATING 
  SLICK SPOTS AND INCREASING THE DIFFICULTY IN DRIVING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

APFFEL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Feb 23, 12:14 AM EST, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 23, 12:14 AM EST, 3 hours 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1214 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...KEEPING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A
WINTRY MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 20 ACROSS
WESTERN NY WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY... CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM... WITH WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS SOME
ADDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE. EXPECT A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY DESPITE THE WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS MID LEVEL REMAIN QUITE DRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MONDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND NEAR FREEZING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER EVENT LOOKS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW UNDER A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BE LOCATED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WHICH LOOKS TO RE-PHASE WITH A
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN BRANCH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS SETUP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION
TOTALS AND A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AS WARM...MOISTURE RICH AIR
SURGES OVER TOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTING A GENERAL 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. LATEST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST SOME FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION INITIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEARLY ALL OF THURSDAY AS AN
ONSLAUGHT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
NEARING 50 DEGREES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER END RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE REALIZED.

A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -14C THURSDAY NIGHT SO WE COULD
CERTAINLY SEE SOME LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT DRYING
ALOFT AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW...LINGERING WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AND LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...
CONTINUED STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP SEND TEMPERATURES BACK
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY...WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 20S...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...BEFORE
USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY PART
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING FAIR VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ON TUESDAY...THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION.
WHILE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER NEAR THE PA
BORDER WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IFR POSSIBLE WITH RAIN/SNOW/MIXED PRECIP.
SATURDAY... MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN LIFT TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY DEVELOPING UNDER
EAST FLOW. AS THIS STORM SHIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
LAKES AS COLDER WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SOAKING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETWEEN 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH COULD IMPACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING. THERE IS STILL SOME
WATER LOCKED UP IN THE SNOW AND ICE IN THE BUFFALO
CREEKS...ALLEGHENY...AND GENESEE BASINS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
COULD MELT SOME OR ALL OF THIS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IS IN
PLACE IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...WHERE WARM TEMPERATURES COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ADD TO RUNOFF DUE TO SNOW MELT. MMEFS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING...BUT A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES. IN SHORT...IF THINGS PLAY OUT AS FORECAST MOST FORECAST
POINTS WILL CREST NEAR BUT JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT IF WE GET
MORE RAIN OR WARMER TEMPERATURES THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
WILL INCREASE.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS LAST WEEKEND BROKE UP MUCH OF THE ICE ON BUFFALO CREEKS.
THIS WAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE HEADWATERS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE IN
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE CAYUGA/BUFFALO/CAZENOVIA CREEK BASINS NEAR
THE BUFFALO RIVER. THE ICE IS NOT TERRIBLY THICK...BUT IT DOES
BEAR WATCHING AS WATER LEVELS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THIS MID- WEEK
STORM. ICE JAMS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN OTHER BASINS...ESPECIALLY
IF RAINFALL OR TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/RSH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...CHURCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 22, 3:48 PM EST, 12 hours 1 minute before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-232100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
348 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE NATION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS AN EVENTUAL
TRACK EITHER A LITTLE TO OUR WEST OR DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. IF REALIZED...SUCH A TRACK WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN INITIAL
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
THEN BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING
RISK AND A LOW RISK FOR STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-232100-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
348 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 23, 3:27 AM ESTGale WatchBUF12 hr
Feb 23, 3:27 PM ESTGale WarningBUF31 hr
Feb 23, 3:27 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF32 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New York, 2016Every winter weather advisory in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.