Alert archive / New York / Winter Weather Advisories in 2016

Winter Weather Advisory 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 15, 2016Jefferson County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter weather advisory at Jan 15, 2016, 3:48 PM EST for Jefferson County, New York. It took effect at Jan 16, 2016, 2:00 AM EST. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 15, 2016, 3:48 PM EST (20:48 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 16, 2016, 2:00 AM EST
Expired
Jan 16, 2016, 9:25 AM EST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

County Jefferson County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 231 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-01-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-01-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 244 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
965 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
244 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
327 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

667 
WWUS41 KBUF 152048
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

NYZ007-160500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.160116T0400Z-160116T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0005.160116T0700Z-160116T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
348 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...MAINLY ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE 
  RIVER VALLEY.

* TIMING...FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
  MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH THROUGH
  SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. IN THE LOWER 30S 
  SATURDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN COMBINED WITH LIGHT
  SNOW CAN CAUSE SLIPPERY ROADS...BRIDGES...RAMPS AND OVERPASSES
  ALONG WITH UNTREATED WALK WAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

THOMAS
3 follow-up statements
952 
WWUS41 KBUF 160456
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1156 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

NYZ007-161300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0005.160116T0700Z-160116T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
1156 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...MAINLY ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE 
  RIVER VALLEY.

* TIMING...FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT 
  AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF AN 
  INCH OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH 
  OVERNIGHT AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SATURDAY...LEADING 
  TO STORM TOTALS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. IN THE LOWER 30S 
  SATURDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN COMBINED WITH LIGHT 
  SNOW CAN CAUSE SLIPPERY ROADS...BRIDGES...RAMPS AND OVERPASSES 
  ALONG WITH UNTREATED WALK WAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$
993 
WWUS41 KBUF 160900
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

NYZ007-161700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T0900Z-160119T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160116T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
400 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...MAINLY ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
  RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
  OF THE COUNTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

* TIMING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE 
  THIS MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 
  LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO SOME SNOW THIS MORNING THEN
  A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW STARTING SUNDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
  THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW TODAY.
  ACCUMULATIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY REACH
  MORE THAN A FOOT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
  VALLEY THIS MORNING THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 30S THIS
  AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL BACK AND REMAIN BELOW
  FREEZING FOR THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TODAY 5-15 MPH. WEST
  15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DURING THE LAKE EFFECT
  EVENT.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVY BANDS
  OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* IMPACTS...A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN COMBINED WITH LIGHT
  SNOW CAN CAUSE SLIPPERY ROADS...BRIDGES...RAMPS AND OVERPASSES
  ALONG WITH UNTREATED WALK WAYS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY AND
  MONDAY WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM AS THE FORECASTED WEATHER
  PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-161700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T0900Z-160118T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
400 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CREATE SNOW
  COVERED ROADS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS THE LAKE BAND IS
  EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER AND EAST OF BUFFALO ON SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-085-161700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T0900Z-160119T1200Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
400 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 OR MORE FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH
  LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH AS THE FORECASTED WEATHER
  PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-161700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T1700Z-160119T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
400 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY 
  MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 OR MORE FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH
  LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH AS THE FORECASTED WEATHER
  PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ008-161700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T0900Z-160119T0000Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
400 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 OR MORE FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH
  LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH AS THE FORECASTED WEATHER
  PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006-161700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T0900Z-160120T0000Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
400 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 OR MORE FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH
  LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH AS THE FORECASTED WEATHER
  PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-161700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0005.160118T0600Z-160120T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
400 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY 
  EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH
  LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM AS THE FORECASTED WEATHER
  PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

SMITH
190 
WWUS41 KBUF 161425
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

NYZ007-162230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160116T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T0900Z-160119T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
925 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
  OF THE COUNTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CREATE SNOW
  COVERED ROADS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM AS THE FORECASTED WEATHER 
  PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-162230-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T0900Z-160118T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
925 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CREATE SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS THE LAKE BAND IS 
  EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER AND EAST OF BUFFALO ON SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-085-162230-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T0900Z-160119T1200Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
925 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...11 TO 21 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH 
  LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH AS THE FORECASTED 
  WEATHER PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT 
  EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-162230-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T1700Z-160119T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
925 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY 
  MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...9 TO 17 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH 
  LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH AS THE FORECASTED 
  WEATHER PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT 
  EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ008-162230-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T0900Z-160119T0000Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
925 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...9 TO 17 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH 
  LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH AS THE FORECASTED 
  WEATHER PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT 
  EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006-162230-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.160117T0900Z-160120T0000Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
925 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH 
  LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH AS THE FORECASTED 
  WEATHER PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT 
  EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-162230-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.160118T0600Z-160120T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
925 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY 
  EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST 
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH 
  LOW VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM AS THE FORECASTED WEATHER 
  PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Jan 15, 1:26 PM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 15, 1:26 PM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
126 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ENDING THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES WHILE SENDING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION. A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
AS POSSIBLE WET SNOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL THEN
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS WNY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
LARGELY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SOME SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITHIN A COLD NORTHEAST FLOW.

THROUGH TODAY EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO SHIFT EAST TO MICHIGAN WHILE
THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH TO ABOUT LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR ALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
+4C WILL BOOST SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS A EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP SURFACE TEMPS LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY UNDER A NORTHEAST FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WITH THE WARM FRONT SLOW TO REACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
THIS BECOMES PROBLEMATIC AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...VORT MAX AND LOW
LEVEL JET FORCE PRECIPITATION WITHIN MOISTURE CIRCULATING THE
SURFACE LOW. WHILE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...SURFACE TEMPS IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY WILL
REMAIN BELOW OR JUST AT FREEZING UNDER A NORTHEAST FLOW WHILE WARM
AIR ALOFT SURGES OVERHEAD IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS AN IDEAL
SET UP FOR FREEZING RAIN MAINLY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
TEMPS TYPICALLY ARE SLOW TO WARM WHEN WINDS FUNNEL DOWN THE RIVER
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE 00Z SSEO
AND NCAR ENSEMBLE P-TYPE GUIDANCE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WHICH IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADS AND WALKS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
JEFFERSON COUNTY TO COVER FOR THIS. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SOME WET SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE UPPER
20S BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST LAKE RESPONSE SATURDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER CLOUD TOPS WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SLEET
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLOUD TOPS COOL IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -13C BY DAYBREAK WHICH WILL PROVIDE
BETTER CLOUD MICROPHYSICS. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
LIMITED...BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONVERGENCE BAND TO
DEVELOP IN A WSW FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKES. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF TODAYS 12Z RGEM PICKS UP ON THIS...SINCE THE
NAM TYPICALLY DOES NOT HANDLE THIS VERY WELL. FOR NOW WILL HEDGE
ABOVE CONSENSUS QPF AND FORECAST 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE TUG HILL AND
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON SUNDAY WHEN A
CLOSE 500 MB LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ALLOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO CLIMB
TO 10-15K FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WHICH WILL INTENSIFY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THIS WILL
FOCUS SNOWS ON THE BUFFALO/WATERTOWN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE DISTURBANCE TO PASS
TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND
PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
REGIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REQUIRE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES...BUT IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF IT WILL FALL INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING
CATEGORY. BANDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY TRANSIENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS...BUT DYNAMICS SUPPORT FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES. NAM/GFS QPF GUIDANCE DOES PICK UP ON THIS
AND PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT...BUT WAS SHARPENED TO FOCUS ON
LIKELY BAND PLACEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COLD AND ACTIVE...AT LEAST FROM A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STANDPOINT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEEP MID
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY THEN HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ASCENT. EXPECT PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY
AND A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO ADD UP TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. FAVORED AREAS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA
EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.
OFF LAKE ERIE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE UPSLOPE DRIVEN ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH INTENSITY DEPENDING ON WHETHER AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION DEVELOPS TO LAKE HURON.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY AND
WILL BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN QUITE COLD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID TEENS HIGHER
TERRAIN. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM FREE FALLING. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL SLOWLY TREND
UPWARD INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EASTWARD...SENDING A LINE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS THE WEST PRECIPITATION
WILL PREDOMINATELY FALL AS PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS. FARTHER
EASTWARD...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STALLED WARM FRONT
PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SNOW...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
POSSIBLY COME AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. KART WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE SOME PLAIN
RAIN...AND THUS WILL CARRY ALL THREE PRECIPITATION INDICATORS
WITHIN THE TAF.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...SENDING PRECIPITATION EASTWARD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CIGS
WILL FALL WITH POTENTIAL IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
KBUF/KIAG/KJHW.

EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS KBUF/KIAG.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR/IFR WITHIN LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
OF THE LAKES (KJHW/KART)...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...IFR IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR IN CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BACKING TO SOUTHERLY ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 15, 5:14 AM EST, 10 hours 34 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

NYZ010>012-019>021-085-161015-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
514 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE NEAR BUFFALO AND BATAVIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL CHANGE TO WEST OR
NORTHWEST...DIRECTING MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-161015-
JEFFERSON-
514 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR WATERTOWN. LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND FOCUS
THE SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD
DIRECT THE SNOW INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>006-008-013-014-161015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
514 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR WATERTOWN. LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND FOCUS
THE SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD
DIRECT THE SNOW INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-161015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
514 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

APFFEL

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 15, 12:23 PM EST, 3 hours 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1223 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             SE MANNSVILLE           43.71N  76.06W
01/15/2016  M8.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1600316

JAM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 15, 3:41 AM ESTFreezing Rain AdvisoryBUFJefferson12 hr
Jan 15, 6:12 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF5 days

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New York, 2016Every winter weather advisory in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.