Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
303 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will taper off late this afternoon. After a brief
lull in activity this evening, a warm front will spread snow across
the region tonight into Saturday as it lifts north. The snow will
change over to rain Saturday and Saturday night as temperatures warm
into the 40s before falling sharply Sunday as a cold front crosses
the region. Temperatures will gradually rebound to around average
during the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The Lake Erie lake effect band previously discussed continues to
gradually make its way north across the Buffalo metro and has
maintained its vigor as it has moved onshore, dropping several
inches across the Buffalo metro over the last couple of hours. The
good news is that this band is finally moving entirely onshore
across the Niagara peninsula, and should weaken over the next hour
or two as it loses its overwater fetch. Meanwhile, lake effect
showers are taking shape east of Lake Ontario, and can be expected
to impact Jefferson and portions of Lewis county this afternoon and
during the evening hours, with a couple of inches of
accumulation possible.

Following the lake effect snow showers, we can expect a brief lull
in activity early this evening. However, the lull will be short-
lived, as a warm front lifting north will generate a broad area of
isentropic uplift-induced precipitation that will spread across the
forecast area from southwest to northeast tonight into Saturday
morning. General accumulations will run in the 2-4 inch range,
however higher elevation areas in the Southern Tier and North
Country will see slightly higher amounts in the 3-5 inch range, and
a winter weather advisory remains in place to cover these amounts.

Temperatures will gradually warm into the 20s overnight across
Western New York as warm air pushes northwards into the region.
Temperatures will continue to warm sharply on Saturday as 850mb
temps surge well above 0C. This will lead to a changeover from snow
to rain during the day as surface readings climb into the lower 40s
in western NY, with mid 30s in the North Country. It is worth noting
that the NAM suggests a sharper warm nose aloft pushing into the
region Saturday morning that would lead to a more significant threat
of sleet/freezing rain in the Southern Tier. However, it is an
outlier and the rest of the deterministic guidance suggests a more
gradual transition across the freezing mark, with little threat for
mixed precipitation, aside from some sleet near the PA border, and
perhaps across Lewis County, during the changeover from snow to rain.

Even as precipitation changes over to rain, it should be diminishing
to scattered showers as the region moves deeper into the warm sector
and the main zone of isentropic uplift moves off to the north-
northeast during the day. However, we may see a resurgence of
rainfall across far western New York late in the day, as the surface
low driving all of this precipitation nears the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night a mid level trough will dig into the Upper Great
Lakes, with an associated surface low moving from near Toronto to
southern Quebec by early Sunday morning and deepening with time. The
digging trough and deepening surface low, along with a strong 150+
knot upper level jet, will bring a period of fairly strong ascent
Saturday night. Temperatures will hold in the upper 30s to low 40s
early in the night with dewpoints in the mid 30s, and the warmer
and more moist air and will maintain the areas of fog over the
snowpack, some areas becoming locally dense during the evening.

On Sunday any remaining synoptic scale precip will quickly end from
west to east as the cold front and mid level trough surge east.
Strong cold advection will force temperatures to fall through the
20s during the day. Some lake effect snow showers will develop east
of the lakes across the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill region,
but a dry airmass will keep this limited. Lake effect snow will
continue southeast of the lakes Sunday night as boundary layer flow
becomes WNW. The snow may become a little better organized as shear
decreases and convergent flow develops over the lakes, especially
across Wayne, Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. These areas will
receive a couple inches of snow during Sunday night, generally 2 to
4 inches. The lake snow bands will weaken move to the north on
Monday as winds become southwesterly. Skies will clear Monday
afternoon and evening with the influx of drier air.

Temperatures will be in the upper single numbers to lower teens
Sunday night with lower single numbers east of Lake Ontario,
following the plummeting reading's as the cold front crossed the
region. Monday's high temperatures will be in middle teens to lower
20s and back to the teens for overnight lows as the pool of cold air
remains over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During the course of Monday and Monday evening...leftover scattered
lake effect snow showers east of the lakes will lift northward to
the Buffalo and Watertown areas and fall apart altogether as high
pressure builds across the region...the low level flow backs around
to southwesterly and becomes rather sheared...and warm air advection
develops aloft. Otherwise...dry and cold weather will prevail...with
highs in the lower to mid 20s Monday followed by lows in the teens
Monday night.

Widespread dry and quiet weather along with a notable warming trend
will then follow for both Tuesday and Wednesday...as the surface
ridge will be anchored either across or a bit to the southeast of
our region...with our area under the influence of attendant drier
air and subsidence. The large scale pattern across North America
will become zonal, allowing Pacific air to flood east across the
nation and bring a warming trend. Speaking more specifically with
respect to temps...daytime highs should rebound to within a few
degrees of the freezing mark on Tuesday...before climbing into the
upper 30s to lower 40s on Wednesday. Meanwhile...nighttime lows will
recover into the 20s.

The dry weather will then come to an end on Thursday as the next low
pressure system works into our region and brings us our next general
chance of precipitation to close out the period. With the medium range
guidance showing rather large disparities in the track/strength of
this low and consequently temperatures across our region...for now
a generic low chance of rain and snow for Thursday appears to be the
best course to follow...along with with forecast highs close to a
consensus of the available guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A lake effect snow band shifting north across Lake Erie will bring a
period of IFR conditions to KBUF between 18-21Z. This band should
fall apart as it shifts north across the Buffalo metro, with a few
stray showers brushing KIAG. Confidence in intensity of showers is
not high enough at KIAG to warrant anything more than a VCSH line.
Likewise, lake effect showers on Lake Ontario will re-consolidate
this afternoon, and are expected to affect KART late this afternoon,
with brief periods of IFR conditions possible. As with Lake Erie,
these showers should continue to shift to the north through the late
afternoon/early evening, with VFR conditions returning by 00Z Sat.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the day.
A warm front lifting across the region tonight will bring a round of
widespread snowfall to the area, with IFR conditions developing
across the region from SW-NE overnight and lasting through the
balance of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR/IFR. Snow and rain likely.
Saturday Night...IFR.
Sunday...MVFR early...then VFR.
Monday...Areas of lake effect snow...otherwise VFR.
Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds will back to the south tonight and weaken,
allowing small craft advisories to be dropped later tonight, with
the exception of the far eastern end of Lake Ontario. A surface low
passing across the region should keep winds relatively light
Saturday into Saturday evening before westerly winds freshen again
in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage Saturday night into
Sunday. This will necessitate another round of small craft
advisories that will likely be needed through Sunday night, before
high pressure and light winds return to the region Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ006-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ019>021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
547 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

NYZ001>005-007-010>014-085-171100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-JEFFERSON-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
547 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AND CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEND IN THEIR SNOWFALL REPORTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-008-171100-
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
547 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEND IN THEIR SNOWFALL REPORTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019>021-171100-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
547 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEND IN THEIR SNOWFALL REPORTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-171100-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
547 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1213 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     SNOW             5 NE IRONDEQUOIT        43.25N  77.50W
12/16/2016  M9.5 INCH        MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

0600 AM     SNOW             4 SSE LACONA            43.60N  76.04W
12/16/2016  M4.8 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             5 ESE OSWEGO            43.44N  76.41W
12/16/2016  M5.7 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NNW ROCHESTER         43.21N  77.64W
12/16/2016  M9.4 INCH        MONROE             NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 WNW ROCHESTER         43.20N  77.70W
12/16/2016  M8.0 INCH        MONROE             NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SSW FRANKLINVILLE     42.32N  78.46W
12/16/2016  M6.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   COOP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NE HONEOYE FALLS      42.97N  77.56W
12/16/2016  M4.0 INCH        MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 ENE RANDOLPH          42.17N  78.96W
12/16/2016  M4.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SW WALWORTH           43.12N  77.30W
12/16/2016  M9.2 INCH        WAYNE              NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NE MARION             43.17N  77.17W
12/16/2016  M6.6 INCH        WAYNE              NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0707 AM     SNOW             3 ESE MACEDON           43.05N  77.26W
12/16/2016  M5.7 INCH        WAYNE              NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 W HOLLEY              43.22N  78.07W
12/16/2016  M3.5 INCH        ORLEANS            NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             3 E VARYSBURG           42.76N  78.25W
12/16/2016  M3.5 INCH        WYOMING            NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             5 W ROCHESTER           43.18N  77.71W
12/16/2016  M8.5 INCH        MONROE             NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             N PHELPS                42.96N  77.06W
12/16/2016  M6.3 INCH        ONTARIO            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             RUSHFORD                42.39N  78.25W
12/16/2016  M3.8 INCH        ALLEGANY           NY   COOP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             4 SSE PITTSFORD         43.03N  77.49W
12/16/2016  M4.1 INCH        MONROE             NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             3 W WEBSTER             43.21N  77.48W
12/16/2016  M8.5 INCH        MONROE             NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0806 AM     SNOW             1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE     42.34N  78.45W
12/16/2016  M8.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0830 AM     SNOW             2 NW PALMYRA            43.08N  77.25W
12/16/2016  M7.0 INCH        WAYNE              NY   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             BROCKPORT               43.21N  77.94W
12/16/2016  M11.8 INCH       MONROE             NY   COOP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1601491
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601492
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601493
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601494
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601495
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601496
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601497
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601498
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601499
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601500
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601501
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601502
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601503
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601504
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601505
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601506
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601507
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601508
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601509
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601510
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601511

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1229 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     SNOW             SARDINIA                42.54N  78.50W
12/16/2016  M6.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0930 AM     SNOW             2 NW ROCHESTER          43.19N  77.65W
12/16/2016  M10.0 INCH       MONROE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1601512
EVENT NUMBER BUF1601513

JAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
330 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

NYZ001>003-010-011-162130-
Orleans-Niagara-Northern Erie-Monroe-Genesee-
330 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

...An Intense BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN ERIE...NIAGARA...NORTHWESTERN GENESEE...AND ORLEANS
COUNTIES...

At 323 PM EST, An intense band of lake effect snow band will
continue to produce snow fall rates of 2 TO 3 inches per hour before
weakening early this evening. If traveling across this area expect
significantly reduced visibilities, snow covered roadways, and
considerable delays.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, North Tonawanda, Clarence,
Lockport, Kenmore, Amherst, Tonawanda and Brockport.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 51 and 49.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this lake
effect snow band. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick
roads are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel
until this lake effect snow band comes to an end.

LAT...LON 4311 7906 4312 7907 4314 7904 4317 7904
      4342 7821 4341 7805 4314 7789 4289 7891
      4293 7890 4296 7893 4296 7896 4300 7902
      4306 7900 4308 7908

Reynolds