Small Craft Advisory 89, NWS Buffalo, NY

729 
WHUS71 KBUF 290218
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

LEZ040-041-291030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0600Z-161030T0000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1018 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-291030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0900Z-161029T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1018 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-291030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0900Z-161029T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1018 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-291030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0900Z-161029T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1018 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SMITH

029 
WHUS71 KBUF 290552
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
152 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

LEZ040-041-291400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0600Z-161030T0000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
152 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-291400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0900Z-161029T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
152 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-291400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0900Z-161029T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
152 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-291400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0900Z-161029T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
152 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH

258 
WHUS71 KBUF 290822
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
422 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

LEZ040-041-291600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161030T0000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
422 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-291600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0900Z-161029T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
422 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-291600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0900Z-161029T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
422 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-291600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.161029T0900Z-161029T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
422 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH/JJR

758 
WHUS71 KBUF 291442
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

LEZ040-041-292245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161030T0000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1042 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-292100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161029T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1042 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-292100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161029T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1042 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-291800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161029T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1042 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

419 
WHUS71 KBUF 291759
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
159 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

LOZ045-291900-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161029T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
159 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

$$

LEZ040-041-300000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161030T0000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
159 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-292100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161029T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
159 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-292100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161029T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
159 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

868 
WHUS71 KBUF 292034
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
434 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

LEZ020-LOZ030-042-292145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161029T2100Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
434 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

LEZ040-041-300000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161030T0000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
434 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SMITH

672 
WHUS71 KBUF 292344
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

LEZ040-041-300045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-161030T0000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
744 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build across the region this evening with
fair weather. Low pressure will then move east across Ontario and
Quebec Saturday, with a trailing cold front sagging slowly south
across the region. This will bring scattered showers to the region,
which will be most persistent east of Lake Ontario. A wave of low
pressure will then move along the front and bring another period of
showers to the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Radar imagery showing a few scattered rain and wet snow showers
lingering across Lewis County early this afternoon in response to
upslope flow into the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks, and some
limited lake moisture. These will continue through mid afternoon
before ending as the moisture profile becomes more shallow.
Otherwise skies will remain cloudy across Central NY and the eastern
Lake Ontario region. Farther west, low level moisture has scoured
out nicely with increasing amounts of sunshine from the western
Finger Lakes westward across Western NY.

A narrow ridge of high pressure will briefly build across the region
this evening and provide a period of partly clear skies and light
winds. This high will move quickly to the east coast overnight as
low pressure moves across Lake Superior and into the Nickel Belt of
Ontario. Strong mid level warm advection will overspread the lower
Great Lakes overnight as a warm frontal segment develops and moves
east across the region. Isentropic upglide and increased moisture
will bring thickening clouds from west to east overnight. Ascent and
moisture become maximized late tonight across the North Country near
the nose of a 55 knot low level jet, and this may produce a few rain
showers late tonight east and northeast of Lake Ontario.

Low temperatures will occur early this evening as the surface ridge
is briefly overhead. Expect lows in the low to mid 40s across
Western NY and mid to upper 30s from the Genesee Valley to the
eastern Lake Ontario region. Overnight the warm advection and
increasing clouds will allow temperatures to rise, with low to mid
50s by daybreak across the lake plains of Western NY.

On Saturday the surface low will move east across Quebec, with a
trailing east/west oriented cold front sagging slowly south towards
Lake Ontario by late in the day. The stronger large scale forcing
associated with the mid level trough, and better low level
convergence on the nose of the low level jet, will be directed into
the eastern Lake Ontario region. This will combine with frontal
convergence and upslope flow to bring a likelihood of showers to
areas east of Lake Ontario. Farther south and west, both large scale
ascent and frontal convergence will be weaker, and should only be
capable of supporting a few brief/light scattered showers.

It will become quite breezy, especially in the typical areas from
the Lake Erie shore northeast across the Niagara Frontier to near
Rochester where winds will gust into the 30-35 mph range. Those
gusty winds will also bring very mild temperatures, with highs in
the mid 60s on the lake plains of Western NY, and mid to upper 50s
across the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Saturday...a robust northern stream shortwave and its attendant
surface low will slide from a position a little south of James Bay
to the middle Saint Lawrence Valley. In the process...this feature
will push an initial prefrontal trough across the area between the
morning and early afternoon hours...before slowly dragging its
trailing cold front into our region late in the day. Increasing
moisture and lift attendant to these features will help to generate
some scattered showers across our region...with somewhat more
numerous activity found east of the lakes where overall forcing/
uplift will be a bit stronger. It will also be a breezy to windy day
owing to a tighter pressure gradient and the passage of a 45-55 knot
low level jet across the area...though with temperature profiles
suggesting that the low levels will remain fairly stable...expect
that the bulk of the stronger winds will remain confined aloft...with
gusts in the 25-30 knot range the most likely outcome at the surface.
With a much warmer airmass in place...we can also expect a return to
decidedly above normal temperatures in spite of the increased cloud
and shower coverage...with highs ranging from the 55-60 range across
the North Country to the mid 60s across many areas south of Lake
Ontario.

During Saturday night...the aforementioned cold front will slowly
sag across our region during the first half of the night...before
stalling along or just south of the NY/PA border overnight as an
elongated secondary surface wave takes shape along the portion of
the boundary draped across the Midwest and Central Great Lakes.
With the passage of the boundary followed by diminishing forcing
and some temporary drying in the mid levels...showers should tend
to become more scattered in coverage for a good chunk of the night
following the frontal passage...before ramping up a bit again across
the Southern Tier late as the secondary surface wave approaches
from the Central Lakes. Otherwise we can expect a fairly cloudy night
as plentiful low level moisture will linger behind the front...and
this in conjunction with a lingering mild airmass will support rather
mild overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s across the North Country
to the upper 40s/lower 50s south of Lake Ontario...or readings which
will be some 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

On Sunday the secondary surface wave will quickly ripple along the
slowly sagging frontal boundary...with the center of the wave
reaching the New Jersey coastline by evening. Compared to 24 hours
ago...the various guidance packages have come into much better
agreement on the overall track and timing of this feature...with
the wave passing by just to our south during the morning hours.
Given this track and the presence of a narrow but fairly impressive
ribbon of deeper moisture and forcing to its north...this system
appears primed to bring the bulk of our region another shot of
rainfall through the morning and early afternoon hours...with this
then quickly diminishing from northwest to southeast through the
rest of the day as the wave/frontal boundary rapidly pulls off to
our southeast. With this in mind...have indicated a fast-moving
swath of categorical PoPs passing across areas south of Lake Ontario
during Sunday...with precip chances sharply tapering to the likely
and chance ranges across the North Country...and to below slight
chance across the bulk of the Saint Lawrence Valley. As for temps...
with our area on the cooler side of this system and subject to
a considerable amount of shower activity and cloud cover...daytime
highs on Sunday will be much cooler than those of Saturday...and
will largely range from the mid to upper 40s across the North Country
to the lower 50s across the remainder of the region.

Following the passage of this system...the axis of expansive Canadian
high pressure and much drier air will build from the Upper Great Lakes
to New England Sunday night and Monday. This will result in fair and
dry weather returning to our region...along with diminishing cloud
cover later Saturday night and Sunday morning as both drying and
subsidence increase over the area. Meanwhile temperatures will average
out a little below normal...with lows ranging through the 30s Sunday
night followed by highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As we move into the longer-term portion of the forecast...the surface
ridge responsible for Monday's fair weather will quickly slide east
and out to sea Monday night and Tuesday...allowing another northern
stream shortwave and surface low to quickly slide eastward across
Ontario and Quebec. Rapidly strengthening warm air advection out
ahead of this next system will likely result in another night with a
noticeable non-diurnal temperature trend Monday night...followed by
a rather warm day on Tuesday when readings will likely surge into
the 65 to 70 degree range south of Lake Ontario...and into the upper
50s and lower 60s across the North Country.

While this system will push its trailing cold front across our region
late Tuesday and Tuesday night...this feature still appears to be
rather weak and greatly starved for both moisture and upper-level
support...which should result in it coming through dry for the bulk
of our region...save for the North Country which will lie closer to
the low track and where a few isolated showers may thus be possible.
Following the frontal passage...another bubble of high pressure and
somewhat cooler air will build across our region for Wednesday...but
even then temperatures will remain solidly above average with afternoon
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s anticipated for most locations.

Looking out toward the end of the period...the medium range models
remain in decent agreement on another weak low crossing our region
sometime in the Wednesday night to Thursday time frame. This system
will bring us our next real chance for some showers...while temps
should continue to average out a bit above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extensive stratocumulus will continue through this evening east and
southeast of Lake Ontario with widespread MVFR CIGS and IFR across
higher terrain. A few light mixed rain/snow showers across the Tug
Hill region will end by mid to late afternoon with little impact on
VSBY. High pressure will bring a brief period of fair weather and
mainly VFR this evening.

Overnight a warm front will move east across the region with a
period of mid level clouds, and possibly a few rain showers late
tonight across the North Country with VFR prevailing in most areas.
On Saturday low pressure will move east across Quebec, with a
trailing cold front sagging slowly south towards Lake Ontario in the
afternoon. Showers will become most likely east of Lake Ontario with
VSBY possibly dropping to MVFR at times. Elsewhere expect just a few
widely scattered light showers. Extensive low level moisture will
stream into the area, with CIGS deteriorating to MVFR by late
morning and remaining MVFR through the afternoon. Some IFR may
develop in the afternoon across the higher terrain.

Outlook...

Sunday...Areas of IFR/MVFR with showers likely.
Monday through Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds continue to slowly diminish this afternoon, with
winds and waves dropping to below Small Craft Advisory criteria
along the south shore of Lake Ontario. A narrow ridge of high
pressure will briefly build across the Lower Great Lakes this
evening with a short period of lighter winds.

Overnight and Saturday low pressure will move east from Lake
Superior to Quebec. This will rapidly tighten the pressure gradient
as high pressure anchors along the east coast. Southwest winds will
rapidly increase on Lake Erie after midnight, then on Lake Ontario
late tonight and Saturday. This will bring another round of Small
Craft Advisory conditions to most of the Lake Erie and Ontario
nearshores.

A weak cold front will then sag slowly south across the Lower Great
Lakes Saturday evening, with winds becoming northwest and eventually
northeast by Sunday morning, and diminishing with waves subsiding to
below Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday
         for LOZ030-042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-290930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-290930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR