Small Craft Advisory 105, NWS Buffalo, NY

298 
WHUS71 KBUF 101435
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
935 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

LEZ040-041-102245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-161211T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
935 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-102245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.161210T1800Z-161211T0500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
935 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-102245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.161210T2300Z-161211T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
935 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

229 
WHUS71 KBUF 101933
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
233 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

LEZ040-041-110345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-161211T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
233 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-110345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-161211T0500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
233 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-110345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.161210T2300Z-161211T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
233 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

557 
WHUS71 KBUF 102351
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
651 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

LOZ044-045-110100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-161211T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
651 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND WAVES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT...THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

LOZ042-110800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-161211T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
651 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-110800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-161211T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
651 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-110800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-161211T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
651 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR

077 
WHUS71 KBUF 110243
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
943 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

LEZ040-041-111100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-161211T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
943 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-110900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-161211T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
943 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-111100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-161211T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
943 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JJR

327 
WHUS71 KBUF 110848
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

LOZ043-111700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-161211T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0013.161212T2100Z-161213T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
348 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-111000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-161211T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
348 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

LEZ040-041-111000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-161211T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
348 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

LOZ044-045-063>065-111700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0013.161212T2100Z-161213T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
348 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...11 TO 15 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

THOMAS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
131 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A west-northwesterly to westerly flow of cold air will continue to
generate areas of lake effect snow east and southeast of the lakes
through Saturday. An area of low pressure will then move through
the Great Lakes region Sunday and Monday and bring a widespread
general snowfall to the region...which may mix with a little rain
or sleet before ending.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
During this period...a general west-northwesterly flow of cold air
will continue into the early overnight hours...before turning a little
more westerly late tonight and Saturday. This will continue to generate
areas of lake effect snow downwind of the lakes...with the activity
generally tending to shift a little further north later tonight and
Saturday as winds become more westerly.

Off Lake Erie...the lake snows are largely confined to Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus counties at the moment...and continue to take advantage
of an upstream connection to southern Lake Huron. Expect these to
largely remain in their current position into the early overnight
hours...before edging a bit further northward as winds back a bit
during the remainder of the night and Saturday. Expect the bands to
produce another 4-7 inches across the Southern Tier overnight and
another 3-6 inches during Saturday...for which Lake Effect Snow
Warnings remain in effect as outlined below. As the bands migrate
a little to the north...some of the snows will leak back into far
southern portions of Southern Erie County as well...with the ski
country likely to pick up an additional 3-6 inches of accumulation
between the overnight hours and Saturday. For this reason...have
hoisted a new lake effect snow advisory for Southern Erie county.

Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...more disorganized lake snows persist
from Orleans county to Oswego county...and inland into portions
of the Finger Lakes Region. These should tend to reorganize at least
somewhat overnight with a potential connection to Lake Huron also
redeveloping...with their focus shifting from Monroe county to southern
Oswego county...where another 3 to 7 inches will be possible in the
most persistent snows through daybreak. Late tonight and Saturday...
a temporary weakening of the wind field in conjunction with the
aforementioned backing flow should cause this band to weaken and at
least partially retract back over Lake Ontario for a time...though
some additional accumulations of at least 2-4 inches will still be
possible over the aforementioned area. For now...lake snow headlines
for areas downwind of Lake Ontario remain in effect as outlined below.

As for temperatures...these will drop into the teens and low 20s
overnight...with readings of around 10 above found in areas of
clearing skies and fresh snow across the North Country. Highs on
Saturday will rise to the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering lake effect snow will continue east of the lakes Saturday
night, and will slowly lift northward toward Buffalo and Watertown
by Sunday morning while weakening and decreasing in inland extent.
While a few more inches of snow accumulation are expect across the
western Southern Tier and Tug Hill region, the weakening snow bands
may only result in an inch or two of snow across the Buffalo and
Water town areas Sunday morning.

Our attention then turns to the widespread snowfall event that is
setting up for Sunday night, which may bring some slow downs to
morning commutes across the region Monday morning. This weather
system evolves out of the low pressure system currently coming on
shore in the Pacific Northwest. The shortwave trough, and
accompanying surface low reflection, will track along the baroclinic
zone across the Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday. Ahead of the
wave and surface low, widespread snowfall will develop in the warm
air advection and along the band of frontogensis, with the region
also in a favorable jet-quadrant for enhanced lift. Model consensus
is in good agreement, supporting 100 PoPs Sunday night.

Model guidance is improving with the track of this system, with more
guidance now pointing to keeping the above freezing air aloft south
of the forecast area, across PA. This means there is a decreasing
chance of a wintry mix of precipitation Sunday night into Monday,
with most of the precipitation falling as all snow Sunday night. With
the track of the surface low still just north and west of the
forecast area, we will see warmer surface temperatures pushing into
the mid 30s during the day Monday. Precipitation will also end from
west to east Monday morning through mid-day as mid and upper level
dry air moves in across the area, which will result in snow ending
and changing over to a light drizzle on Monday. The the increasing
likelihood of all snow Sunday night, snowfall amounts will likely
end up warranting an advisory, with most locations picking up 4 to 6
inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The active and very wintry pattern will continue through the long
term, and even intensify by late next week. Looking at the longwave
pattern, a sharp upper level ridge will build over Alaska early next
week and allow for a period of cross polar flow, with Siberian air
making the trip across the Arctic and into northern Canada. The
Alaskan ridge will remain in place through much of the week and
force a deep longwave trough to develop over central and eastern
North America. A large piece of true arctic air will move south
through the Canadian Prairies and reach the Great Lakes and New
England later next week. This may set the stage for another round of
significant lake effect snow for Thursday and Friday. As the cold
air comes in, another baroclinic wave may bring some widespread
general snow Wednesday.

Looking at the details, on Tuesday and Tuesday night a weak trough
will pass through the Great Lakes and may produce a few light snow
showers of little consequence. There may also be some limited lake
effect snow east of the lakes, but marginal instability will keep
this light.

On Wednesday the longwave trough will begin to dig into the Northern
Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of the trough, medium range
model guidance develops a baroclinic wave over the Ohio Valley and
Northeast. The GFS and most of it's ensemble members along with the
Canadian GEM are more aggressive with this, and would produce a
general light to moderate snowfall across the entire area. The 12Z
ECMWF is much weaker with this feature. The ECMWF has shown a good
deal of inconsistency with this system, as previous runs looked more
similar to the current 12Z GFS. With this in mind, went closer to
GFS based guidance with snow likely for Wednesday.

In the wake of this system cold air will flood into the Great Lakes
Thursday and Friday. This will be the coldest air of the season,
with 850mb temps plummeting to -20C or colder. This will translate
into highs in the teens and lows in the single numbers away from the
immediate lakeshores. The deep cold air crossing the lakes and the
overall pattern is suggestive of more significant lake effect snow
downwind of the lakes for Thursday and Friday, however there are
significant differences in wind direction, not to be unexpected
given this is still 6-7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Outside of lake effect snows, expect mainly VFR conditions. A WNW
flow will result in the most persistent snows across the Western
Southern Tier. Expect frequent IFR conditions, especially during
the day today when the steadiest band is expected to focus near
the JHW terminal. Lighter lake effect snows are possible at ROC,
with only a small chance for a brief snow showers at BUF/IAG/ART
through this evening.

Winds will shift to the Southwest late tonight which will lift
bands northward. This will end the snows at JHW, but likely bring
a few hours of IFR conditions at BUF/ART late Saturday night.

Outlook...
Sunday...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR with widespread light snow
developing.
Sunday night and Monday...MVFR/IFR in widespread light snow.
Tuesday...MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with snow likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Across Lake Ontario...winds will continue to diminish from west to
east overnight before increasing again for a time across the western
half of the lake Saturday afternoon and evening. While this should
allow the remaining advisories for that lake to be dropped as the
night progresses...additional advisories may become necessary for
areas from Sodus Bay westward during Saturday.

On Lake Erie...a stronger west-northwesterly to westerly flow will
persist through Saturday night...necessitating a continued SCA
through that time frame.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ003>006.
     Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning
     for NYZ002.
     Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this
         morning for LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
940 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

NYZ001-007-008-010>014-021-110245-
NIAGARA-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
940 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH WOULD HINDER TRAVEL DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE NEXT WEEK... HOWEVER IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
IN THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST IMPACT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002-110245-
ORLEANS-
940 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH WOULD HINDER TRAVEL DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE NEXT WEEK... HOWEVER IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
IN THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST IMPACT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>006-110245-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
940 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH WOULD HINDER TRAVEL DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE NEXT WEEK... HOWEVER IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
IN THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST IMPACT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-110245-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
940 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH WOULD HINDER TRAVEL DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE NEXT WEEK... HOWEVER IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
IN THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST IMPACT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ085-110245-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
940 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY DROP
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH WOULD HINDER TRAVEL DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE NEXT WEEK... HOWEVER IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
IN THE LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST IMPACT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-110245-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
940 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

CHURCH/JJR